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美国总统并不是选民直接选举产生的。根据美国宪法,11月8日是全民投票日,也就是“普选”(popular vote)。这一天选民们要“涂圈圈”并递交的选票长这样:
看上去选民是在自己心仪的总统(希拉里or川普)及副总统候选人边上“涂圈”,但其实,是把票投给了候选人所在党派的“选举人”(Elector)。最终由这些选举人组成的选举团,代表自己行使选择权。
The United States Electoral College is the body that elects the President and Vice President of the United States every four years. Citizens of the United States do not directly elect the president or the vice president; instead they choose "electors", who usually pledge to vote for particular candidates.
所以说,大选的最终结果取决于这个貌似神秘的存在 ——“选举人团”(the Electoral College)。
•选举人团(又称选举团或总统选举团)的成员,即“选举人”,由各党派选出。
The Electoral College is a group of people appointed by each party.
•选举人全国总共有538人,与美国国会议员人数相等。即选举人团的总票数为538票。
The total number of electors is equal to the number of members in Congress: 538
•根据州权平等原则,各州选举人票的数量取决于各州的人口。比如人口稀少的怀俄明州Wyoming、阿拉斯加州Alaska等州的选举人票数均只有3票,而人口大州加利福尼亚州占55票、得克萨斯州38票、纽约州29票。
The number of electors in each state is equal to the number of members of Congress to which the state is entitled, while the Twenty-third Amendment grants the District of Columbia the same number of electors as the least populous state, currently three. Therefore, there are currently 538 electors, corresponding to the 435 Representatives and 100 Senators, plus the three additional electors from the District of Columbia.
•另外,还有一个关键的制度——“赢家通吃”(Winner-takes-all)。即把本州的选举人票全部给予在该州获得相对多数普选票的总统候选人。除了缅因州和内布达斯加州按普选票得票比例分配选举人票,其他所有州和华盛顿特区均实行这个制度。
All states, except for Maine and Nebraska, have chosen electors on a "winner-take-all" basis since the 1880s. Under winner-take-all, a state has all of its electors pledged to the presidential candidate who wins the most votes in that state.
举个栗子:如果候选人A在纽约州获得了多数普选票,就相当于拿下了纽约州的全部“选举人团”票共29票。这也意味着,赢得一个州的每一张选民选票,和赢得这个州51%的选民选票,所得到的选举人团票数是一样的。
So, if Candidate A wins the most votes in, say, New York, (s)he gets all 29 electoral votes.
•最后,总统候选人只要赢得超过半数即270张(总共538票的一半)或以上的选举人票,就是胜选了~
The goal is to get to 270, which is just over half of 538.
通常,选举人已宣誓承诺自己将在12月举行的选举团投票时,投票给该州获胜的总统候选人。虽然美国法律中并没有规定选举人必须按照普选结果投票,即不能在最终选举团投票时“变卦”,但历史上这种情况是非常之少的,且最后并未影响大选结果。
Although no elector is required by federal law to honor a pledge, there have been very few occasions when an elector voted contrary to a pledge.
所以,大选结果通常在全民投票日即普选当天,就可以根据各州选举结果算出来了~
什么是摇摆州?其实这些州就是决胜主战场~
摇摆州(swing state)又称“战场州”(battleground state),指民主、共和两党候选人支持率势均力敌、差距不大的州。这些州在历届大选中经常会倒向不同的政党,频频摇摆。“摇摆州”的选票一般都是竞选双方争夺的重点,尤其是“关键摇摆州”(key swing states)的选票,最终往往可以决定大选的结果。
In presidential politics of the United States, a swing state (or battleground state) is a state that could reasonably be won by either major-party candidate and would require a special effort on behalf of either campaign in order to win. Objectively, it is a state in which no single candidate or party has overwhelming support in securing the state's electoral college votes.
Such states receive a greater share of attention and campaigning of political parties in presidential elections, since winning these states is the best opportunity for a party to gain electoral votes.
当然,也有特殊情况……
普选日结束,依旧没能选出总统?2000年,小布什和戈尔的选举中,两人在弗罗里达州的普选票数仅相差5000多张,选票数太接近,只能重新计票。这时戈尔对结果表示不服并上诉,于是一直拖到12月的选举人团选票,才定下最终结果——小布什获得271票,确定登上总统宝座。
还有可能,两人打成平手,即两个人都获得了269张选举人票,未能达到270张以上。这时候,就由美国众议院(House of Representatives)继续投票,最终确定谁当总统。
The candidate who receives an absolute majority of electoral votes (currently 270) for the office of president or of vice president is elected to that office. The Twelfth Amendment provides for what happens if the Electoral College fails to elect a president or vice president. If no candidate receives a majority for president then the House of Representatives will select the president, with each state delegation (instead of each representative) having only one vote. On four occasions, most recently in the 2000 presidential election, the Electoral College system has resulted in the election of a candidate who did not receive the most popular votes in the election.
普选中个人投票是严格保密的,媒体是咋得知最终结果的?
这个问题的答案又涉及了一个新词儿——“出口民调”(Exit Poll)。
总统选举投票结束不久,虽然还没有完成票数计算,但通常有民调机构或媒体在各个投票站出口立即对投票者进行抽样调查。当然咯,这时调查的就不是选民“想投谁”,而是“已经投给了谁”。所以,大多数民调结果与最终选举结果是吻合的~
An election exit poll is a poll of voters taken immediately after they have exited the polling stations. Unlike an opinion poll, which asks for whom the voter plans to vote, or some similar formulation, an exit poll asks for whom the voter actually voted.
由于选票计算要花好几个小时甚至几天才能公布最终结果,出口民调就以其时效性和准确度获得了各大媒体的青睐。
Pollsters – usually private companies working for newspapers or broadcasters – conduct exit polls to gain an early indication as to how an election has turned out, as in many elections the actual result may take hours or even days to count.
最后,大选结果官方正式的公布时间为2017年1月6日。新总统和副总统将于2017年1月20日正式就职,入住白宫。
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