其他
快照:此时的市场和在其中的人
We pull memories along causative lines, revising them involuntarily and unconsciously. We continuously renarrate past events in the light of what appears to make what we think of as logical sense after these events occur. (我们会沿着因果关系挪动记忆,不由自主地、无意识地修改它们。在这些事件发生后,我们会不断地根据我们认为有道理的逻辑重新叙述过去的事件。)
If you work in a randomness-laden profession, as we see, you are likely to suffer burnout effects from that constant second-guessing of your past actions in terms of what played out subsequently. Keeping a diary is the least you can do in these circumstances. (正如我们所看到的,如果你在一个充满随机性的行业工作,你可能需要不断地理解过去的行为,并判断接下来要发生什么,这会让你筋疲力尽。在这种工作环境下,写日记可能是最能缓解的手段之一了。)
—— 《黑天鹅(第六章 叙事谬误)》,塔勒布
1. 背景
2. 此时的市场
3. 在其中的人
4. 我自己