Nature: 北京疫情传播系数估算-部分参考本公号投票情况

港大梁老师下午通知，Nature Medicine已接受文章。

该文章部分数据参考本公号投票结果，谢谢各位读者的支持，感谢梁教授及时的研究。

Abstract

We tracked the effective reproduction number Rt of the predominant SARS-CoV-2 variant Omicron BF.7 in Beijing in November – December 2022 by fitting a transmission dynamic model parameterized with real-time mobility data to (i) the daily number of new symptomatic cases on November 1–11 (when China’s zero-COVID interventions were still strictly enforced) and (ii) the proportion of individuals who participated in online polls on December 10–22 and self-reported to have been test-positive since November 1. After China’s announcement of ‘20 measures’ to transition from zero-COVID, we estimated that Rt increased to 3.44 (95% CrI: 2.82–4.14) on November 18 and the infection incidence peaked on December 11. We estimated that the cumulative infection attack rate (that is the proportion of population who have been infected since November 1) in Beijing was 75.7% (95% CrI: 60.7–84.4) on December 22, 2022, and 92.3% (95% CrI: 91.4–93.1) on January 31, 2023. Surveillance programmes should be rapidly set up to monitor the evolving epidemiology and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 across China.

Nature 官方网址：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02212-y

PDF下载链接：https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-023-02212-y_reference.pdf

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