美联储出猛招：大潮将退，未来只有加息、加息、加息....

美联储这招比贸易战猛：

未来之路只有加息、加息、加息....

大潮退去

再无浪花朵朵

任凭如何放水都难奏效

知己知彼，百战不殆，

欢迎关注继民财经汇（jimincaijing), 了解贸易战最新动态。

继民财经汇导读：周二，美联储主席杰罗姆鲍威尔周二表示强烈支持今年继续加息，因为美国经济基本稳固。

鲍威尔在参议院银行委员会准备的证词中说：“最好的方法是逐步提高联邦基金利率。”他将于周三在众议院议员面前再次亮相。"The best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate," 

自金融危机以来，美国经济并未如此健康。失业率处于历史低位，预计将进一步下降。工资增长开始回升。通货膨胀最终达到了美联储认为对经济健康的水平。“我们的挑战将是保持在那里，”鲍威尔说，指的是央行2％的通胀目标。

鲍威尔在引导经济方面寻求平衡。提高利率的速度太慢，他可能会让价格过快上涨。提高利率太快，他可能会削弱经济。美联储今年两次提高其主要利率，最近一次是在6月份。今年又增加了两次加息，2019年将加息三次。目前，美央行官员认为美国经济足够稳健，可以保持稳定。

然而，美联储主席指出，难以预测贸易紧张局势升级对经济的影响，以及共和党减税的影响。鲍威尔说：“我们经历的经济结果往往比我们的最佳预测更强或更弱。” "The economic outcomes we experience often turn out to be a good deal stronger or weaker than our best forecast," Powell said.

美元周二走强，美联储主席鲍威尔在国会作出对美国经济的乐观评估。华尔街日报美元指数上涨0.4%，至88.63，为一年多来最高水平。鲍威尔对国会议员说，强劲的经济增长和稳定的通胀水平应会令央行继续徐缓上调短期利率。华尔街日报美元指数今年已上涨3.1%。

股票市场方面，美国股市周二在美联储主席鲍威尔出席参议院听证会后上涨，投资者持续剖析最新一轮公司业绩。道指收盘上涨56点，至25120点，涨幅0.2%。标普500指数上涨0.4%，科技股集中的纳指上涨0.6%

美国为何将会持续加息？美国当前的经济状况到底如何？美国的最新就业和通货膨胀情况如何？美联储的持续加息计划，将会对股市、汇市和房市产生重大影响；持续加息将会继续导致美元走强，从而进一步导致美元回流，而对新兴经济体而言， 将可能会面临外资流失和货币贬值的风险。 大潮将去，任凭如何放水都难以阻挡， 都不同的经济体、不同的企业、和不同的个人具体投资情况而言， 这会是一个冲击，也可能是一个机会。

不论如何，美联储主席给国会的最新证词如下， 美国经济的最权威解读就在这里， 不容错过：

以下是美联储主席于2018年7月17日在美国国会的证词全文（中文翻译仅供参考）

July 17, 2018

Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress

Chairman Jerome H. Powell

Before the Committee on Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs, U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.

Good morning. Chairman Crapo, Ranking Member Brown, and other members of the Committee, I am happy to present the Federal Reserve's semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress. Crapo主席，各位排名成员布朗委员和会其他成员，早上好，我很高兴向大会提交美联储的半年度货币政策报告。

Let me start by saying that my colleagues and I strongly support the goals the Congress has set for monetary policy--maximum employment and price stability. We also support clear and open communication about the policies we undertake to achieve these goals. We owe you, and the public in general, clear explanations of what we are doing and why we are doing it. Monetary policy affects everyone and should be a mystery to no one. For the past three years, we have been gradually returning interest rates and the Fed's securities holdings to more normal levels as the economy strengthens. We believe this is the best way we can help set conditions in which Americans who want a job can find one, and in which inflation remains low and stable. 首先我要说，我和我的同事强烈支持国会为货币政策制定的目标 - 最大限度的就业和价格稳定。 我们还支持就实现这些目标所采取的政策进行明确和公开的沟通。 我们需要向你们和公众，明确解释我们正在做什么以及为什么要这样做。 货币政策影响到每个人，对任何人都应该是一个谜。 在过去三年中，随着经济的增强，我们逐渐将利率和美联储的证券持有量恢复到更正常的水平。 我们相信这是我们能够帮助设定条件的最佳方式，在这种条件下，想要工作的美国人可以找到工作，而且通货膨胀率仍然很低且稳定。

I will review the current economic situation and outlook and then turn to monetary policy. 我将回顾当前的经济形势和前景，然后谈谈货币政策。

Current Economic Situation and Outlook 美国当前经济形势与展望

Since I last testified here in February, the job market has continued to strengthen and inflation has moved up. In the most recent data, inflation was a little above 2 percent, the level that the Federal Open Market Committee, or FOMC, thinks will best achieve our price stability and employment objectives over the longer run. The latest figure was boosted by a significant increase in gasoline and other energy prices. 自从我上次在2月份作证以来，就业市场持续走强，通货膨胀率上升。 在最新的数据中，通胀略高于2％，联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）认为，从长远来看，这一水平将最有效地实现我们的价格稳定和就业目标。 最新数据得益于汽油和其他能源价格的大幅上涨。

An average of 215,000 net new jobs were created each month in the first half of this year. That number is somewhat higher than the monthly average for 2017. It is also a good deal higher than the average number of people who enter the work force each month on net. The unemployment rate edged down 0.1 percentage point over the first half of the year to 4.0 percent in June, near the lowest level of the past two decades. In addition, the share of the population that either has a job or has looked for one in the past month--the labor force participation rate--has not changed much since late 2013. This development is another sign of labor market strength. Part of what has kept the participation rate stable is that more working-age people have started looking for a job, which has helped make up for the large number of baby boomers who are retiring and leaving the labor force. 今年上半年，每个月平均创造了215,000个净新工作岗位。 这个数字略高于2017年的月平均数。这也是每月净进入劳动力市场的平均人数的一个很好的交易。 6月份失业率较上半年微降0.1个百分点至4.0％，接近过去20年的最低水平。 此外，自2013年底以来，在过去一个月中有工作或一直在寻找工作的人口 - 劳动力参与率 - 的比例没有太大变化。这一发展是劳动力市场实力的另一个标志。 保持参与率稳定的部分原因是，更多的工作年龄的人开始寻找工作，这有助于弥补大量退休和离开劳动力市场的婴儿潮一代。

Another piece of good news is that the robust conditions in the labor market are being felt by many different groups. For example, the unemployment rates for African Americans and Hispanics have fallen sharply over the past few years and are now near their lowest levels since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began reporting data for these groups in 1972. Groups with higher unemployment rates have tended to benefit the most as the job market has strengthened. But jobless rates for these groups are still higher than those for whites. And while three-fourths of whites responded in a recent Federal Reserve survey that they were doing at least okay financially in 2017, only two-thirds of African Americans and Hispanics responded that way. 另一个好消息是许多不同的群体都感受到了劳动力市场的强劲条件。 例如，非裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人的失业率在过去几年大幅下降，现在接近自1972年劳工统计局开始报告这些群体数据以来的最低水平。失业率较高的群体往往受益 就业市场增强最多。 但这些群体的失业率仍然高于白人。 虽然四分之三的白人在最近的一次美联储调查中表示，他们在2017年的财务状况至少表现良好，但只有三分之二的非洲裔美国人和西班牙裔美国人以这种方式做出回应。

Incoming data show that, alongside the strong job market, the U.S. economy has grown at a solid pace so far this year. The value of goods and services produced in the economy--or gross domestic product--rose at a moderate annual rate of 2 percent in the first quarter after adjusting for inflation. However, the latest data suggest that economic growth in the second quarter was considerably stronger than in the first. The solid pace of growth so far this year is based on several factors. Robust job gains, rising after-tax incomes, and optimism among households have lifted consumer spending in recent months. Investment by businesses has continued to grow at a healthy rate. Good economic performance in other countries has supported U.S. exports and manufacturing. And while housing construction has not increased this year, it is up noticeably from where it stood a few years ago. 最新数据显示，除了强劲的就业市场外，今年美国经济今年迄今仍以稳健增长的速度增长。 在调整通货膨胀后，经济中产生的商品和服务价值 - 或国内生产总值 - 在第一季度以2％的适度年率增长。 然而，最新数据显示，第二季度的经济增长明显强于第一季度。 今年迄今为止的稳健增长基于几个因素。 近几个月，强劲的就业增长，税后收入增加以及家庭的乐观情绪提升了消费者支出。 企业投资继续以健康的速度增长。 其他国家的良好经济表现支持了美国的出口和制造业。 虽然今年住房建设没有增加，但几年前的情况明显好转。

I will turn now to inflation. After several years in which inflation ran below our 2 percent objective, the recent data are encouraging. The price index for personal consumption expenditures, which is an overall measure of prices paid by consumers, increased 2.3 percent over the 12 months ending in May. That number is up from 1.5 percent a year ago. Overall inflation increased partly because of higher oil prices, which caused a sharp rise in gasoline and other energy prices paid by consumers. Because energy prices move up and down a great deal, we also look at core inflation. Core inflation excludes energy and food prices and generally is a better indicator of future overall inflation. Core inflation was 2.0 percent for the 12 months ending in May, compared with 1.5 percent a year ago. We will continue to keep a close eye on inflation with the goal of keeping it near 2 percent. 我们现在看看通货膨胀的情况。 经过几年的通胀低于我们2％的目标，最近的数据令人鼓舞。 个人消费支出的价格指数是消费者支付价格的总体指标，在截至5月份的12个月中增长了2.3％。 这一数字比一年前的1.5％有所上升。 总体通货膨胀增加的部分原因是油价上涨，导致汽油和消费者支付的其他能源价格大幅上涨。 由于能源价格大幅上涨和下跌，我们也关注核心通胀。 核心通胀不包括能源和食品价格，通常是未来整体通胀的更好指标。 截至5月份的12个月核心通胀率为2.0％，而一年前为1.5％。 我们将继续密切关注通胀，目标是将其保持在2％左右。

Looking ahead, my colleagues on the FOMC and I expect that, with appropriate monetary policy, the job market will remain strong and inflation will stay near 2 percent over the next several years. This judgment reflects several factors. First, interest rates, and financial conditions more broadly, remain favorable to growth. Second, our financial system is much stronger than before the crisis and is in a good position to meet the credit needs of households and businesses. Third, federal tax and spending policies likely will continue to support the expansion. And, fourth, the outlook for economic growth abroad remains solid despite greater uncertainties in several parts of the world. What I have just described is what we see as the most likely path for the economy. Of course, the economic outcomes we experience often turn out to be a good deal stronger or weaker than our best forecast. For example, it is difficult to predict the ultimate outcome of current discussions over trade policy as well as the size and timing of the economic effects of the recent changes in fiscal policy. Overall, we see the risk of the economy unexpectedly weakening as roughly balanced with the possibility of the economy growing faster than we currently anticipate. 展望未来，我和FOMC的同事们预计，通过适当的货币政策，就业市场将保持强劲，通胀将在未来几年保持在2％左右。这一判断反映了几个因素。首先，更广泛的利率和金融状况仍然有利于增长。其次，我们的金融体系比危机前强大得多，并且能够很好地满足家庭和企业的信贷需求。第三，联邦税收和支出政策可能会继续支持扩张。第四，尽管世界上一些地区存在更大的不确定性，但海外经济增长的前景仍然稳固。我刚才描述的是我们认为最有可能走向经济的道路。当然，我们经历的经济结果往往比我们的最佳预测更强或更弱。例如，很难预测当前关于贸易政策的讨论的最终结果，以及最近财政政策变化对经济影响的规模和时间。总体而言，我们认为经济出现意外减弱的风险与经济增长速度大于我们目前预期的可能性大致平衡。

Monetary Policy 货币政策

Over the first half of 2018 the FOMC has continued to gradually reduce monetary policy accommodation. In other words, we have continued to dial back the extra boost that was needed to help the economy recover from the financial crisis and recession. Specifically, we raised the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at both our March and June meetings, bringing the target to its current range of 1-3/4 to 2 percent. In addition, last October we started gradually reducing the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury and mortgage-backed securities. That process has been running smoothly. Our policies reflect the strong performance of the economy and are intended to help make sure that this trend continues. The payment of interest on balances held by banks in their accounts at the Federal Reserve has played a key role in carrying out these policies, as the current Monetary Policy Report explains. Payment of interest on these balances is our principal tool for keeping the federal funds rate in the FOMC's target range. This tool has made it possible for us to gradually return interest rates to a more normal level without disrupting financial markets and the economy. 在2018年上半年，FOMC继续逐步减少货币政策调整。换句话说，我们继续减少所需的额外刺激措施，这些措施原先的目标是以帮助经济从金融危机和经济衰退中复苏。具体而言，我们在3月和6月的会议上将联邦基金利率的目标范围提高了1/4个百分点，使目标范围达到目前的1-3 / 4％至2％。此外，去年10月，我们开始逐步减少美联储持有的财政部和抵押贷款支持证券。这个过程一直顺利进行。我们的政策反映了经济的强劲表现，旨在帮助确保这一趋势继续下去。正如当前的货币政策报告所解释的那样，银行在美联储账户中持有的余额利息在执行这些政策方面发挥了关键作用。支付这些余额的利息是我们将联邦基金利率保持在FOMC目标范围内的主要工具。这一工具使我们能够在不扰乱金融市场和经济的情况下逐步将利率恢复到更正常的水平。

As I mentioned, after many years of running below our longer-run objective of 2 percent, inflation has recently moved close to that level. Our challenge will be to keep it there. Many factors affect inflation--some temporary and others longer lasting. Inflation will at times be above 2 percent and at other times below. We say that the 2 percent objective is "symmetric" because the FOMC would be concerned if inflation were running persistently above or below our objective. 正如我所提到的，经过多年的低于2％的长期目标后，通货膨胀率最近已接近该水平。 我们的挑战将是保持在那里。 许多因素影响通货膨胀 - 一些是暂时的，另一些则是持 通货膨胀有时会高于2％，有时低于其他时间。 我们说2％的目标是“对称的”，因为如果通货膨胀持续高于或低于我们的目标，联邦公开市场委员会就会担心。

The unemployment rate is low and expected to fall further. Americans who want jobs have a good chance of finding them. Moreover, wages are growing a little faster than they did a few years ago. That said, they still are not rising as fast as in the years before the crisis. One explanation could be that productivity growth has been low in recent years. On a brighter note, moderate wage growth also tells us that that the job market is not causing high inflation. 失业率很低，预计会进一步下降。想要工作的美国人很有可能找到工作。 此外，工资增长速度比几年前快一些。 也就是说，他们仍然没有像危机前几年那样快速上升。 一种解释可能是近年来生产率增长较低。 更明智的是，适度的工资增长也告诉我们，就业市场不会导致高通胀。

With a strong job market, inflation close to our objective, and the risks to the outlook roughly balanced, the FOMC believes that--for now--the best way forward is to keep gradually raising the federal funds rate. We are aware that, on the one hand, raising interest rates too slowly may lead to high inflation or financial market excesses. On the other hand, if we raise rates too rapidly, the economy could weaken and inflation could run persistently below our objective. The Committee will continue to weigh a wide range of relevant information when deciding what monetary policy will be appropriate. As always, our actions will depend on the economic outlook, which may change as we receive new data. 凭借强劲的就业市场，接近我们目标的通胀以及前景风险大致平衡，联邦公开市场委员会认为 - 目前 - 最好的方法是逐步提高联邦基金利率。 我们意识到，一方面，加息太慢可能导致高通胀或金融市场过剩。 另一方面，如果我们过快加息，经济可能会减弱，通胀可能会持续低于我们的目标。 在决定哪种货币政策适当时，委员会将继续权衡各种相关信息。 与往常一样，我们的行动将取决于经济前景，随着我们收到新数据，经济前景可能会发生变化。

For guideposts on appropriate policy, the FOMC routinely looks at monetary policy rules that recommend a level for the federal funds rate based on the current rates of inflation and unemployment. The July Monetary Policy Report gives an update on monetary policy rules and their role in our policy discussions. I continue to find these rules helpful, although using them requires careful judgment.

Thank you. I will now be happy to take your questions.

对于适当政策的指南，FOMC通常会根据当前的通货膨胀率和失业率来考虑建议联邦基金利率水平的货币政策规则。 7月货币政策报告提供了货币政策规则的最新情况及其在我们政策讨论中的作用。 我继续发现这些规则很有用，尽管在用它们的时候需要仔细判断。

谢谢。 我现在很乐意回答你的问题。

贸易战战情战况方面：

中欧联合声明：2018年7月16日，中国总理欧洲理事会主席在北京举行第二十次中国欧盟领导人会晤， 并共同发布了第二十次中国欧盟领导人会晤联合声明； 声明指出：双方坚定致力于打造开放型世界经济，提高贸易投资自由化便利化，抵制保护主义与单边主义，推动更加开放、平衡、包容和普惠的全球化。双方坚定支持以世贸组织为核心、以规则为基础、透明、非歧视、开放和包容的多边贸易体制并承诺遵守现行世贸规则。双方还承诺就世贸组织改革开展合作，以迎接新挑战，并为此建立世贸组织改革副部级联合工作组。

日本欧洲自贸协议签订：据《华尔街日报报道》 ， 7 月17日，日本和欧盟领导人签订了一项协议，将打造出全球最大自由贸易区之一， 联合对抗美国的贸易攻势。这与美国及其一些贸易伙伴之间不断升级的贸易冲突形成鲜明对比。周二在东京举行的协议签订活动基本上只是仪式性的，但它标志着在全球贸易领域出现的一个罕见的团结时刻。最近几个月，美国总统特朗普(Donald Trump)已对中国以及其他国家的产品加征一系列惩罚性关税，并称关税行动对于纠正其他国家不公平的贸易优势是必要的。在签订协议后，日本与欧盟都将自己称为自由贸易的旗手

中美石油战：据《华尔街日报》报道，中国是美国限制购买伊朗石油计划的一大缺口。据美国政府的一名高级能源官员，一些华盛顿人士目前预期，由于美国的制裁威胁，其他国家不会购买伊朗石油，而中国将把伊朗石油大量买走。中国购买更多伊朗石油可能削弱相关制裁的经济影响，也可能会使伊朗与中国走得更近，而此时正值华盛顿与北京方面的贸易紧张局势不断升级之际。出于对制裁的预期，外国石油公司已撤出伊朗，国际银行也拒绝为伊朗石油交易提供资金。尽管欧盟不支持重新实施制裁，但包括希腊和土耳其在内的国家正在逐步减少购买伊朗石油。中美石油战，将可能会是中国反制美国贸易战的重大招数之一。

接下来是我们的“每天读懂特朗普”时间，我们关注一下特朗普总统今天的主要动态：

特朗普和普京的单独会面，被美国主流媒体和民主党，甚至共和党某些议员，激烈批评；从媒体上看，美国国内可以说是恶评如潮。不过特朗普看来并不特别在乎这个。特朗普今天发的推文中，其中一个是为美国经济叫好，为自己的政绩做正面宣传（基于美联储主席的证词）； 还有一个推文就是关于他此次欧洲之行， 他说此次和北约的会议很成功， 为北约凑集了大量军费；而普京的会面更是成功的，然而，媒体并没有从正面报道，这些媒体总是报道虚假新闻； 

特朗普还说，北约原先是软弱的，由于我特朗普，此次北约军费增加了330亿美元，将来还会持续增加；这对俄罗斯来说是坏消息，然而，媒体从来不报道我对俄罗斯领导人强硬的一面，从来不报道北约军费增加的情况......

然而，据《华尔街日报》报道美国总统特朗普一天前称他不知道俄罗斯有何理由试图干预美国大选，周二却改口称，他本来想说的是“我不知道有何理由不是俄罗斯干的。”

特朗普在返回华盛顿后首次公开发表讲话，他周二在白宫对记者说，他接受美国情报机构的结论，即俄罗斯干预了2016年美国总统大选，同时坚称他的竞选团队从未与俄罗斯合谋。

特朗普还说，没有计划解除对俄罗斯的制裁。他说，“一切照旧。”

每天读懂特朗普

听其言，观其行

知己知彼，百战不殆，

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