库克一封信，苹果跌500亿, 引发律师调查（全文）

库克这封信，苹果暴跌500亿美元

美国律所发动调查，诉讼是否将爆发？（全文）

本周三， 苹果公司首席执行官蒂姆·库克发布给投资者的公开信， 信中苹果公司降低了第一季度的业绩预测指导。

就在公告公布前, 苹果股票停牌, 2 0分钟后恢复交易时, 股价下跌了 7% 左右, 市值缩水超过500亿美元。

 苹果将收入指导下调至840亿美元, 低于此前预测的890亿美元。该公司将毛利率从从至38.5% 之间的38% 下调到38%。

苹果将业绩指导下调归咎于多种因素, 包括中国经济疲软和 iphone 收入低于预期。苹果表示, 收入低于预期的 "主要发生在大中华区", 但也表示, 其他国家对新 iphone 车型的升级 "并不像我们想象的那么强劲"。

库克在信中说, 运营商补贴减少, 基于美元走强的价格上涨, 以及电池更换的便宜, 导致了本季度 iphone 升级乏力。

库克周三在接受 cnbc 的乔什利普顿 (josh lipton) 采访时表示: "如果你看看我们的业绩, 我们的业绩缺口将100% 是由于 iphone所引起的； 而且 主要集中在大中华区。"很明显, 下半年那里的经济开始放缓, 我相信美中之间的贸易紧张关系给他们的经济带来了额外的压力"

尽管业绩指导有所降低, 但库克在给投资者的信中确实指出了一些增长领域。他说, 苹果的设备安装基地比去年增加了1亿台。苹果一直在推广其不断增长的安装基础, 以表明它可以通过 icloud 存储和 apple music 等订阅服务从每一种用途中产生更多收入。据说, 该公司也在考虑通过其苹果新闻和电视应用推出新的订阅产品。

“我们有一些正在进行的物品的集合。一些是宏观经济的, 有些是苹果特有的, "库克在接受 cnbc 采访时说。"而且我们也不会坐等宏的变化。我希望它做到了, 我实际上是乐观的, 但我们将真正深入地关注我们能够控制的事情。

以下是库克致投资者公开信全文（中文翻译仅供参考，英文原文后附）

致苹果投资者: 

今天, 我们对苹果公司截至2018年12月29日的2019财年第一季度的业绩指导做出修正, 该财政年度将于12月29日结束。我们现在预计：

- 收入约为840亿美元

-毛利率约为38% 

-营业费用约87亿美元

-其他收入/(费用) 约5.5亿美元

-实际所得税率约16.5% 

我们预计计算稀释 eps 所使用的股份数量约为47.7亿股。

根据这些估计, 我们的收入将低于我们本季度的最初指导, 其他项目与我们的指导意见大致一致。

虽然我们需要几个星期才能完成并报告我们的最终业绩数据； 但我们现在想给你一些初步的信息。我们的最终结果可能与这些初步估计有些不同。

大约60天前, 当我们与您讨论我们的第一季度指导意见时, 我们知道第一季度将受到宏观经济和苹果特定因素的影响。根据我们对这些情况的最佳估计, 我们预测当季收入同比略有增长。你可能还记得, 我们讨论了四个因素: 首先, 我们知道我们推出 iphone 的不同时间会影响我们的同比比较。我们的顶级机型 iphone xs 和 iphone xs max 以 Q4′18出货--在该季度出货和预销售, 而去年 iphone x 在 Q1′18中出货, 在12月季度进行铺至渠道和预销售。我们知道这将给 Q1′19造成困难的比较, 这与我们的期望大体一致。

其次, 我们知道美元走强会造成外汇逆流, 并预测与上年相比, 这将使我们的收入增长减少约 2 0 0个基点。这也与我们的期望大体一致。

第三, 我们知道我们在本季度有前所未有的新产品要增加, 并预测供货不足将在第一季度限制了我们某些产品销售。同样, 这也与我们的期望大体一致。苹果手表系列4和 ipad pro 的销售在本季度大部分或全部将因为供货不足而受到影响。空中飞人和 macbook air 也因此受到影响。

第四, 我们预计一些新兴市场将出现经济疲软。事实证明, 这对影响比我们预计的要大得多。

此外, 这些因素和其他因素导致 iphone 升级比我们预期的少。

最后两点导致我们减少了本季度收入指导。我想在这两个问题上再多谈一些。

新兴市场挑战

虽然我们预计主要新兴市场会面临一些挑战, 但我们没有预见到经济减速的严重程度, 尤其是在大中华区。事实上, 我们的大部分收入缺口, 以及我们全球收入同比下降的100% 以上, 都发生在大中华区的 iphone、mac 和 ipad。

2 0 1 8年下半年, 中国经济开始放缓。政府公布的三季度 g d p 增长是过去 2 5年来第二低的。我们认为, 与美国贸易紧张关系加剧进一步影响了中国的经济环境。由于不确定性不断增加的环境对金融市场造成压力, 其影响似乎也影响到了消费者； 随着季度的推进, 我们零售店和中国渠道合作伙伴的销售量也在下降。而市场数据显示, 大中华区智能手机市场的收缩尤为明显。

尽管面临这些挑战, 但我们相信我们在中国的业务前景光明。ios 开发人员社区在中国是世界上最具创新性、创造力和活力的社区之一。我们的产品在客户中享有强大的追随者, 具有非常高的参与度和满意度。我们在中国的业绩包括服务收入的新纪录, 我们安装的设备基础在过去一年中有所增长。我们很自豪能参与中国市场。

iphone 的收入低于预期, 主要是在大中华区, 这是我们指导的所有收入缺口, 远远超过我们全年收入的下降。事实上, iphone 以外的类别 (服务、mac、ipad、wearablese/homes附件)的总和增长了近19%。

虽然大中华区和其他新兴市场占 iphone 收入同比下降的绝大多数, 但在一些发达市场, iphone 升级也没有我们想象的那么强劲。虽然一些市场的宏观经济挑战是造成这一趋势的主要因素, 但我们认为, 还有其他因素广泛影响着我们的 iphone 的销售表现, 包括消费者适应了一个运营商补贴较少、美元实力相关的世界价格上涨, 一些客户利用大幅降低的价格为 iphone 电池更换。

虽然修改我们的指导意见令人失望, 但尽管面临这些挑战, 但我们在许多领域的表现显示出显著的实力。

我们安装的有源设备基础创下历史新高--在12个月内增长了1亿多台。苹果设备的使用比以往任何时候都多, 这证明了我们客户的持续忠诚度、满意度和参与度。

另外, 正如我之前提到的, 我们 iphone 业务以外的收入同比增长了近 19%, 其中包括服务、可穿戴设备和 mac 的历史最高收入。我们的非 iphone 业务在新兴市场的风险敞口较小, 绝大多数服务收入与安装基础的规模有关, 而不是当前期间的销售。

当季服务业创造了108多亿美元的收入, 在每个地理区域都创下了新的季度纪录, 我们有望实现从2016年至2020年将这一业务规模扩大一倍的目标。

由于苹果手表和空中飞人在假日购物者中非常受欢迎, 可穿戴设备同比增长了近 5 0%; macbook air 和 mac mini 的推出推动了 mac 的收入同比增长, 新 ipad pro 的推出推动 ipad 的收入同比增长两位数。

我们还预计将在美国、加拿大、德国、意大利、西班牙、荷兰和韩国等几个发达国家创造历史收入纪录。而且, 虽然我们看到了一些新兴市场的挑战, 但其他一些新兴市场也创造了纪录, 包括墨西哥、波兰、马来西亚和越南。

最后, 我们还预计苹果每股收益将创下历史新高。

展望未来, 

我们的盈利能力和现金流产生强劲, 我们预计本季度的净现金流大约 1, 300亿美元。正如我们以前所指出的, 随着时间的推移, 我们计划实现净现金中性。

当我们面临这个充满挑战的季度时, 我们对我们业务的根本力量和以往一样充满信心。我们长期管理苹果, 并且 apple 总是利用逆境来重新审视我们的方法, 利用我们的灵活性、适应性和创造力的文化, 从而变得更好。

最重要的是, 我们对未来产品和服务的渠道充满信心和兴奋。苹果的创新和地球上其他公司不同，在追求创新上，我们不会轻言放弃，只会继续竭尽全力we are not taking our foot off the gas。我们不能改变宏观经济状况, 但我们正在采取和加快其他举措, 以改善我们的成果。其中一项举措是让我们苹果手机在我们的商店交易变得更简单, 随着时间的推移我们将为购买提供资金, 并确保用户可以获得从当前到新手机的数据传输帮助。这不仅是对环境有利, 对客户也是有利, 因为他们现有的手机作为可以作为他们的新手机的补贴, 对开发人员也十分有利, 因为它可以帮助增长我们的安装基数。

这是我们正在采取的应对措施之一。我们可以做出这些调整, 因为苹果的实力在于我们的弹性、团队的天赋和创造力, 以及对我们每天所做工作的深厚热情。

对苹果的期望很高, 因为这本该如此。我们致力于每天都超越这些期望。

这一直是苹果的方式, 也将永远是。

蒂姆

以下是库克致投资者公开信英文全文

To Apple investors:

Today we are revising our guidance for Apple’s fiscal 2019 first quarter, which ended on December 29. We now expect the following:

• Revenue of approximately $84 billion

• Gross margin of approximately 38 percent

• Operating expenses of approximately $8.7 billion

• Other income/(expense) of approximately $550 million

• Tax rate of approximately 16.5 percent before discrete items

We expect the number of shares used in computing diluted EPS to be approximately 4.77 billion.

Based on these estimates, our revenue will be lower than our original guidance for the quarter, with other items remaining broadly in line with our guidance.

While it will be a number of weeks before we complete and report our final results, we wanted to get some preliminary information to you now. Our final results may differ somewhat from these preliminary estimates.

When we discussed our Q1 guidance with you about 60 days ago, we knew the first quarter would be impacted by both macroeconomic and Apple-specific factors. Based on our best estimates of how these would play out, we predicted that we would report slight revenue growth year-over-year for the quarter. As you may recall, we discussed four factors:

First, we knew the different timing of our iPhone launches would affect our year-over-year compares. Our top models, iPhone XS and iPhone XS Max, shipped in Q4′18 — placing the channel fill and early sales in that quarter, whereas last year iPhone X shipped in Q1′18, placing the channel fill and early sales in the December quarter. We knew this would create a difficult compare for Q1′19, and this played out broadly in line with our expectations.

Second, we knew the strong US dollar would create foreign exchange headwinds and forecasted this would reduce our revenue growth by about 200 basis points as compared to the previous year. This also played out broadly in line with our expectations.

Third, we knew we had an unprecedented number of new products to ramp during the quarter and predicted that supply constraints would gate our sales of certain products during Q1. Again, this also played out broadly in line with our expectations. Sales of Apple Watch Series 4 and iPad Pro were constrained much or all of the quarter. AirPods and MacBook Air were also constrained.

Fourth, we expected economic weakness in some emerging markets. This turned out to have a significantly greater impact than we had projected.

In addition, these and other factors resulted in fewer iPhone upgrades than we had anticipated.

These last two points have led us to reduce our revenue guidance. I’d like to go a bit deeper on both.

Emerging Market Challenges

While we anticipated some challenges in key emerging markets, we did not foresee the magnitude of the economic deceleration, particularly in Greater China. In fact, most of our revenue shortfall to our guidance, and over 100 percent of our year-over-year worldwide revenue decline, occurred in Greater China across iPhone, Mac and iPad.

China’s economy began to slow in the second half of 2018. The government-reported GDP growth during the September quarter was the second lowest in the last 25 years. We believe the economic environment in China has been further impacted by rising trade tensions with the United States. As the climate of mounting uncertainty weighed on financial markets, the effects appeared to reach consumers as well, with traffic to our retail stores and our channel partners in China declining as the quarter progressed. And market data has shown that the contraction in Greater China’s smartphone market has been particularly sharp.

Despite these challenges, we believe that our business in China has a bright future. The iOS developer community in China is among the most innovative, creative and vibrant in the world. Our products enjoy a strong following among customers, with a very high level of engagement and satisfaction. Our results in China include a new record for Services revenue, and our installed base of devices grew over the last year. We are proud to participate in the Chinese marketplace.

iPhone

Lower than anticipated iPhone revenue, primarily in Greater China, accounts for all of our revenue shortfall to our guidance and for much more than our entire year-over-year revenue decline. In fact, categories outside of iPhone (Services, Mac, iPad, Wearables/Home/Accessories) combined to grow almost 19 percent year-over-year.

While Greater China and other emerging markets accounted for the vast majority of the year-over-year iPhone revenue decline, in some developed markets, iPhone upgrades also were not as strong as we thought they would be. While macroeconomic challenges in some markets were a key contributor to this trend, we believe there are other factors broadly impacting our iPhone performance, including consumers adapting to a world with fewer carrier subsidies, US dollar strength-related price increases, and some customers taking advantage of significantly reduced pricing for iPhone battery replacements.

Many Positive Results in the December Quarter

While it’s disappointing to revise our guidance, our performance in many areas showed remarkable strength in spite of these challenges.

Our installed base of active devices hit a new all-time high — growing by more than 100 million units in 12 months. There are more Apple devices being used than ever before, and it’s a testament to the ongoing loyalty, satisfaction and engagement of our customers.

Also, as I mentioned earlier, revenue outside of our iPhone business grew by almost 19 percent year-over-year, including all-time record revenue from Services, Wearables and Mac. Our non-iPhone businesses have less exposure to emerging markets, and the vast majority of Services revenue is related to the size of the installed base, not current period sales.

Services generated over $10.8 billion in revenue during the quarter, growing to a new quarterly record in every geographic segment, and we are on track to achieve our goal of doubling the size of this business from 2016 to 2020.

Wearables grew by almost 50 percent year-over-year, as Apple Watch and AirPods were wildly popular among holiday shoppers; launches of MacBook Air and Mac mini powered the Mac to year-over-year revenue growth and the launch of the new iPad Pro drove iPad to year-over-year double-digit revenue growth.

We also expect to set all-time revenue records in several developed countries, including the United States, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Korea. And, while we saw challenges in some emerging markets, others set records, including Mexico, Poland, Malaysia and Vietnam.

Finally, we also expect to report a new all-time record for Apple’s earnings per share.

Looking Ahead

Our profitability and cash flow generation are strong, and we expect to exit the quarter with approximately $130 billion in net cash. As we have stated before, we plan to become net-cash neutral over time.

As we exit a challenging quarter, we are as confident as ever in the fundamental strength of our business. We manage Apple for the long term, and Apple has always used periods of adversity to re-examine our approach, to take advantage of our culture of flexibility, adaptability and creativity, and to emerge better as a result.

Most importantly, we are confident and excited about our pipeline of future products and services. Apple innovates like no other company on earth, and we are not taking our foot off the gas.

We can’t change macroeconomic conditions, but we are undertaking and accelerating other initiatives to improve our results. One such initiative is making it simple to trade in a phone in our stores, finance the purchase over time, and get help transferring data from the current to the new phone. This is not only great for the environment, it is great for the customer, as their existing phone acts as a subsidy for their new phone, and it is great for developers, as it can help grow our installed base.

This is one of a number of steps we are taking to respond. We can make these adjustments because Apple’s strength is in our resilience, the talent and creativity of our team, and the deeply held passion for the work we do every day.

Expectations are high for Apple because they should be. We are committed to exceeding those expectations every day.

That has always been the Apple way, and it always will be.

Tim

华尔街律所发动调查

当天， Bernstein LiebhardLLP宣布，启动调查苹果公司潜在的证券欺诈行为，原因是苹果及其高管可能向投资者发布了重大误导性商业信息。一场股东集体诉讼是否即将爆发？

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