85岁高龄诺奖得主：特朗普不靠谱 周围的人不够资格为他出谋划策 | 网易研究局

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作者为2006年诺贝尔经济学奖得主、哥伦比亚大学经济系教授埃德蒙·费尔普斯（Edmund S. Phelps）

埃德蒙·费尔普斯

中美贸易摩擦，我看到许多代价，但看不到任何好处。

当然，传统预估是，中国对具有比较优势的产品从生产中重新分配，同时在中国“回敬”美国之后，美国也对其具有比较优势的产品从生产中重新分配。一般来说，这将导致GDP和工资水平的下降。但我认为这不是最大的代价。

我认为主要的代价是（市场）对两国经济关系的信心和信任的丧失。对中国和美国制造商来说，他们的全球市场前景可能会不那么明朗，原计划进行的新投资项目或新市场挖掘也将取消。这将导致两国经济增长放缓。

在我看来，中国比美国拥有更多经验丰富的谈判专家。众所周知，特朗普是不踏实不靠谱的，而且他周围的人也不够资格为他出谋划策。一方面，美国经济规模比中国大，贸易对于美国而言相对没那么重要。另一方面，美国政府非常渴望去阻止本国先进技术被泄露到中国。

但中国大量持有美国国债。假设中国真的倾销了所有这些债券，在我看来，美联储将被迫购买大部分债务，以避免美国经济中利率的灾难性上涨以及欧洲和拉丁美洲利率的大幅上涨。美国纳税人会因此感到不满。美国财政部可能采取拖欠债务措施，但这并不能阻止这场“地震”对市场的动摇。

中美贸易摩擦不会演变为冷战的原因在于，欧洲国家的人已经对美国发起的这次可能陷入贸易战的风险行为感到非常愤怒，所以我看不到冷战里的东西方对峙的情况。但我想可能会有一种冷战发生，就是美国会竭尽全力阻止中国进口高科技生产方法，并阻止美国企业与中国研究机构合作开发人工智能（AI）技术。

埃德蒙·费尔普斯（Edmund S. Phelps）是就业与增长理论的著名代表人物，被誉为现代宏观经济学的缔造者和影响经济学进程最重要的人物之一，2006年获得诺贝尔经济学奖，现任哥伦比亚大学经济学教授。

英文版：

1. What do you think of Trump's recent behavior regarding Sino-US trade?: I see a number of costs to this initiative and no benefits in sight. 

Of course, the classical assessment is that there will be a reallocation in China of production away from goods in which it has a comparative advantage and simultaneously, after China retaliates, a reallocation in the US of production away from goods in which it has a comparative advantage. The result will be reductions of GDP and, generally speaking, wage rates. But I think that this is not the most important cost.  

The main cost, I think, is a loss of confidence and trust regarding our two countries' economic relations. The prospects of a global market for manufacturers both in China and in America will look smaller and they will decline to make new investments and seek new markets which they would otherwise have done. The result will be a slowdown of economic growth in both countries.

2. Sino- US trade predictions: It appears, then, that the US and China will ultimately be induced to sit down together in an effort to resolve the dispute. You ask which country has more advantages in this regard. It seems to me that China is far better equipped in expert and accomplished negotiators than is the US. As everyone knows, Trump is insecure and unreliable, and furthermore, the people around him are not well qualified to advise him.  

It is less easy to see which country has the greater need to settle the disagreement. On one hand, trade is less important to the gigantic economy of the US than it is to the somewhat smaller economy of China. On the other hand, the US government is very eager to score a victory with regard to the leakage of advanced technologies from the US to China. It would seem, therefore, that there is room for a deal.  

3. On the subject of Chinese sales of its holdings of US government bonds: I would be surprised if China took such a dramatic step so early in the development of the disagreement. But suppose China did dump all of those bonds. As I see it, America's Federal Reserve Bank would be forced to buy up most of the debt in order to avert a catastrophic rise of interest rates in the US economy -- and, by the way, a rather large size rise of interest rates in Europe and Latin America as well. US tax payers would be disgruntled. The US treasury could take the step of defaulting on its Federal obligations, but that would not stop the markets from being shaken up by such a earthquake. 

4. If the trade war starts: There will be no winners. 

5. Would a Sino-US trade war evolve into a cold war?: I don't see that as very likely. The Europeans are already very angry at the US for risking a trade war, so I don't see anything like an East vs. West contest. But I can imagine a kind of cold war breaking out in which the US makes every effort to block China's importation of high-tech production methods and to block US corporations from cooperating with Chinese research organizations in the development of AI (artificial intelligence) technologies.

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