即将来临的暴风眼：2020人口普查遇上陈霞芬冤案

（英文原作）胡善庆博士 （中文翻译）王文奎

2017年6月4日

关于人口调查的小科普

美国宪法规定每十年进行一次全国人口普查。第一次全国人口普查是1790年，下一次2020年，美国第24次人口普查，将是全球最系统化、水平最高的人口普查之一。

人口普查的结果将决定怎样在全国分配国会的众议院的席位，决定州、区、甚至细化到各地的学区、选区的界限的划分。人口普查的结果还被用来支持各项重要的政府运作机制，诸如选举权、公民权的执法，数以千亿计的联邦资金的调拨，人口、经济数据的汇总报告，以及各级政府的基本决策等。

全国人口普查，要遵循非常严格的时间限制。下一次人口普查是2020年4月1日，初步结果要在2020年12月31日前上报给总统。宪法所要求的、用来进行议会分区的人口数据必须在2021年4月1日前公布。

尽管当今的科技如此发达，最近一次的人口普查还是使用铅笔和纸张，所有的调查表都是通过邮局送到各家各户。2010年人口普查时，对那些没按时填人口调查表的人家，先是会有人电话随访，如果还没反应，全国范围内布署了635,000名人工调查员进行上门调查[1]。

为准备2020年的人口普查，美国人口普查局制定了一份185页的作业计划[2]，以应付诸多复杂、棘手的挑战，包括费用的高涨、回复率的下降、严格的质量要求、人口的流动性和多样性、和对政府的不信任等等。

举例来讲，据估计，使用传统的操作方法，2020年人口普查会花费178亿美元。然而，国家要求人口调查局进行改革创新，把费用控制在2010年的水平，只能花125亿----尽管家庭的数量会从2010年的1.34亿增加到1.43亿。

这样看来，人口调查局应该紧锣密鼓地准备了吧？

联邦政府责任办公室在其“2017年高风险报告”[3]中指出，“过去3年里，我们向人口普查局提了30条建议，以帮助他们设计和实施2020年的人口普查，使其更有效率。然而，截止到2017年1月，只有其中6项被全面实施。”

更令人担忧的是，2017年5月人口普查局的局长突然辞职[4, 5]，而副局长也在2017年5月离职了。人口普查局的局长是由政府任命的，不是选举的；副局长则是联邦的职业公务员。目前川普政府还没有任命新的局长，并且据说也没有什么计划在不久的将来任命接替人选。

2020人口普查被陈霞芬冤案撞了一下腰？

最近，Politico刊登了一篇报道，标题是“人口普查出现了危机？下一任主管可能是一位天气预报员”[6]。这篇报道说，劳拉·弗基欧尼（Laura Furgione）是目前未经宣布的代理副局长。劳拉·弗基欧尼是何许人也？她在自己的领英（LinkedIn）页面自称是个有“雄心的高级政府主管“[7]，在国家气象局工作了至少12年后，于2016年12月移到或被调至人口普查局。

此人原先是美国国家气象局（National Weather Service）的副局长，正是她，启动解雇了被冤作中国间谍的、获得过全国气象组织大奖的水文学家陈霞芬（Sherry Chen）。

陈霞芬的案子于2015年3月被司法部撤销[8]，但是作为近年来一系列的针对华裔科学家的错误起诉的案子之一，引起了全国性的，包括美国国会[9，10]，主流媒体[11，12]，美国人权委员会[13，14]，各种专业及社区团体[15，16, 17]，和很多关心社会的公民的关注[18]。

正是这个弗基欧尼在从未与陈霞芬谋面、更没有通过话的情况下，绕过陈霞芬的直接领导，没有遵循现有的工作流程，于2015年9月启动解雇陈霞芬的程序[19]；而且，弗基欧尼解雇陈霞芬援引的理由，竟与被撤销的司法部案子类似。

在全国各地的支持下，陈霞芬向联邦考绩委员会（Merit System Protection Board, MSPB）提出了行政上讼，状告政府错误解雇、种族歧视和非法打击报复[20]。2017年3月14-15日，联邦考绩委员会在俄亥俄辛辛那提举行了公开听证会，受到了广泛的媒体关注[21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28]。在这个听证会上，很多原先没有被披露的、关于针对陈霞芬的偏颇行为的证据开始浮现出来[29]。

弗基欧尼在听证会上作为一个重要的证人被传唤作证，预计联邦考绩委员会将在6、7月份作出裁决。

临近的暴风眼

即将到来的2020年人口普查已经面临着严峻考验，成为一个临近的暴风眼。眼下，国家又面临由一位高度缺乏应有的资格、经验和判断力的人士来执掌人口普查局，美国人民应该为2020人口普查，这个10年一度的、”史上最大的民事工程”[6]而深忧。请联系您的国会议员及其他民选官员，表达您的顾虑和担心。您可以在这些网站找到他们的联系方法：http://www.house.gov/representatives/find/ 和 http://www.senate.gov/states/#

注：胡善庆博士是华人组织百人会的董事，陈霞芬法律维权基金的托管人，是统计方面的专家，曾经在美国联邦政府任职30多年，担任过个农业部、能源部、交通部和商务部的高管。

英文原文

Eye of a Coming Storm: The 2020 Census

Jeremy S. Wu, Ph. D.  Jeremy-wu.info

June 4, 2017

Mandated by the U.S. Constitution, the decennial census was first conducted in 1790.  The upcoming 2020 census will be the 24th count of the nation’s population in one of the most enduring systematic and high-quality population censuses in the world.  

The decennial census results will decide the apportionment of seats by state in the House of Representatives.  The more refined counts will be used to define the representative boundaries for congressional districts, state legislative districts, school districts, and down to the voting precincts.  The decennial data are also used to support important government operations such as the enforcement of voting rights and civil rights legislation, the annual distribution of hundreds of billions of dollars in federal funds, the reporting of the demographic and economic state of the nation, and the basis of informed decisions at the national and local levels.

There are strict timelines for the decennial census.  The next Census Day will be April 1, 2020.  The first set of results shall be delivered to the President by December 31, 2020.  The constitutional mandate of population counts for Congressional redistricting shall be released by April 1, 2021.  

Despite the rapid advancement of technology, the most recent decennial census was still primarily a paper-and-pencil operation, relying on the use of mail for initial response to questionnaires.  Households not responding to mail would be followed by phone calls and finally physical visits by one of the 635,000 human enumerators in the 2010 census [1].  

Rising costs, declining response rate, rapid change in technology, multiple test and training needs, strict quality requirements, a mobile and increasingly diverse population, and distrust in government are all part of the complexity and challenges of the 2020 census, which are described in a 185-page operational plan [2].  

For example, the total cost for the 2020 census is estimated to reach $17.8 billion under the traditional approach.  However, the Census Bureau is required to be more innovative and deliver the 2020 census for a total cost of $12.5 billion, about the same as the 2010 census despite an estimated growth from 134 million households to 143 million nationwide.   

The Census Bureau should be ramping up its 2020 census preparations by now.  

Instead, the Government Accountability Office identified the 2020 census in its 2017 High Risk Report [3], citing that “Over the past 3 years, we have made 30 recommendations to help the Bureau design and implement a more cost-effective census for 2020; however, only 6 of them had been fully implemented as of January 2017.”

The director for the Census Bureau, a political appointee, abruptly resigned [4, 5] in May 2017.  The Trump administration has not nominated, and is reportedly unlikely to nominate, a replacement any time soon.  The resignation followed the departure of the deputy director, a career federal employee, in January 2017.

Politico recently reported [6] under the title “Is the census heading for a crisis?  Next in command may be a weather forecaster” that Laura K. Furgione is currently the unannounced acting deputy director at the Census Bureau.  She is a self-described “ambitious government senior executive” [7] and moved or was moved to the Census Bureau in December 2016 after at least 12 years at the National Weather Service.

As then deputy director at the National Weather Service, Laura K. Furgione initiated action to terminate the employment of Sherry Chen, an award-winning hydrologist who was wrongfully accused of spying for China.

Sherry Chen’s case was dropped by the Department of Justice in March 2015 [8].  As part of a pattern of wrongful prosecutions against Chinese American scientists, it drew national attention and concerns from Congress [9, 10], major media [11, 12], U.S. Civil Rights Commission [13, 14], professional and community organizations [15, 16, 17], and many concerned citizens [18].  

Nonetheless, Laura K. Furgione, who had never met or discussed the matter with Sherry Chen directly and bypassed Sherry Chen’s supervisors and existing procedures, decided to start action to fire Sherry Chen in September 2015 [19] for the same justifications used in the failed criminal case.

Sherry Chen filed an administrative appeal to the Merit System Protection Board (MSPB) on the grounds of wrongful termination, racial discrimination and unlawful retaliation [20].  A public hearing with wide media coverage [21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28] was held in Cincinnati, Ohio, on March 14-15, 2017.  Evidence of bias against Sherry Chen has begun to surface publicly from the hearing [29].

Laura K. Furgione was called to testify as a central figure in the hearing.  A decision by MSPB is expected in the next 30-60 days.  

The upcoming 2020 census is already in the eye of a coming storm.  Now we add a leader with highly questionable qualifications, experience and judgment possibly at the helm of the Census Bureau.  Americans should indeed be worried about “the biggest civic project” [6] the U.S. undertakes every ten years.

References

[1] U.S. Census Bureau (n.d.).  2010 Fast Facts.  http://bit.ly/2qI2clR.

[2] U.S. Census Bureau (2016). 2020 Census Operational Plan.   http://bit.ly/2r1n1qV.

[3] Government Accountability Office (2017).  2017 High Risk Report: 2020 Decennial Census.  http://bit.ly/2qHpjgJ.

[4] Washington Post (2017).  U.S. Census director resigns amid turmoil over funding of 2020 count.  http://wapo.st/2rrvClr.

[5] Science (2017).  Departure of U.S. Census director threatens 2020 count.  http://bit.ly/2rqST8V.

[6] Politico.com (2017).  Is the census heading for a crisis?  Next in command may be a weather forecaster.  http://politi.co/2rJX2FX.

[7] Laura Furgione (n.d.).   LinkedIn profile.  http://bit.ly/2s7ts9U.

[8] New York Times (2015).  Accused of Spying for China, Until She Wasn't.  http://nyti.ms/2mTiOl7.

[9] U.S. Congress (2015).  Joint Letter from 22 Congressional Representatives to Attorney General Calling for Investigation.  http://1.usa.gov/1PzFj9r.

[10] U.S. Congress (2015).  Joint Letter from 42 Congressional Representatives to Attorney General Calling for Investigation.  http://1.usa.gov/1WENn7W.

[11] New York Times (2015).  The Rush to Find China’s Moles.  http://nyti.ms/1F2pOU4.

[12] CBS 60 Minutes (2016).  Collateral Damage.  http://cbsn.ws/1Nvsii1.

[13] U.S. Civil Rights Commission (2015).  Letter to Attorney General Calling for Investigation.   http://bit.ly/1X9ExER.

[14] U.S. Civil Rights Commission (2016).  Letter to Department of Justice Inspector General Calling for Investigation.  http://bit.ly/29QhcSf.

[15] Committee of 100 (2015).  Joint Letter from 7 National Organizations to Attorney General Calling for Investigation.   http://bit.ly/1OMrRyt.

[16] Change.org (n.d.).  Concerned Scientists, Engineers and Professors: We Want An Independent Investigation.  http://chn.ge/1mQuqVz.

[17] ScientistsNotSpies.org (n.d.).  Stop the Reckless Prosecutions.  http://bit.ly/2rLqprm.

[18] Sherry Chen Legal Defense Fund (n.d.).  Sherry Chen Legal Defense Fund website.  http://sherrychendefensefund.org.

[19] New York Times (2015).  Chinese-American Cleared of Spying Charges Now Faces Firing.  http://nyti.ms/2qqDhPL.

[20] Wall Street Journal (2016).  Fired Worker Files Complaint After Spy Case Dropped.  http://on.wsj.com/1TVesVg.

[21] WLWT-TV5 NBC News (2017).  Woman wrongfully accused of being Chinese spy fights to get job back.  http://bit.ly/2ng0nqF.

[22] WCPO-9 ABC Cincinnati (2017).  Ohio scientist accused of spying wants her job back.  http://bit.ly/2mNiYhs.

[23] FOX19 Cincinnati (2017).  Ohio scientist cleared of espionage charges wants her job back.  http://bit.ly/2ov2E1u.

[24] WKRC-12 CBS Cincinnati (2017).  Newsmakers: March 19, 2017.  http://bit.ly/2nfXLZL.

[25] Cincinnati CityBeat (2017).  Fired government hydrologist wants her job back after criminal charges dropped.  http://bit.ly/2oveSHf.

[26] NBC News (2017).  Government Scientist Fired After Dropped Spying Charges Petitions for Reinstatement.  http://nbcnews.to/2o7Qhwi.

[27] Cincinnati Enquirer (2017).  Disgraced Chinese-American scientist fights to get her job back.  http://cin.ci/2nrYdVW.

[28] Sherry Chen Legal Defense Fund (n.d.).  Sherry Chen vs the U.S. Department of Commerce. http://bit.ly/2lctBbN.

[29] Sherry Chen Legal Defense Fund (n.d.).  Sherry Chen Case Update.  http://bit.ly/2siNkYi.