【经典重读】亨廷顿：文明的冲突？ （原文和译文） （上）
1993年夏，亨廷顿在美国著名的《外交》杂志上发表了一篇题为《文明的冲突？》的文章，立即引起了国际社会的普遍关注和争论。当前恐怖主义频发的态势似乎印证了亨廷顿的"文明的冲突"的预言，让我们回顾一下这一二十多年前的文章，来重新探讨西方文明和伊斯兰文明的关系。
新华博客“季我努”译，新浪博客 Chilly修改。
本文转自 http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_71715bef0102vb51.html
THE NEXT PATTERN OF CONFLICT
下一个冲突的模式
World politics is entering a new phase, and intellectuals have not hesitated toproliferate visions of what it will be-the end of history, the return oftraditional rivalries between nation states, and the decline of the nationstate from the conflicting pulls of tribalism and globalism, among others. Eachof these visions catches aspects of the emerging reality. Yet they all miss acrucial, indeed a central, aspect of what global politics is likely to be inthe coming years.
世界政治正进入一个新的阶段，学者们已经毫不犹豫地衍生出多种关于世界前景的想象——历史的终结，民族国家间传统竞争的回归，在部族主义和全球主义不断角力的推动下民族国家的式微，还有其他的说法。这些预测的任何一种都抓住了不断显露中的现实的某些方面。但是它们忽略了未来全球政治发展中一个重要，甚至是中心的方面。
It is my hypothesis that the fundamental source of conflict in this new worldwill not be primarily ideologic al or primarily economic. The greatdivisions among humankind and the dominating source of conflict will becultural. Nation states will remain the most powerful actors in world affairs,but the principal conflicts of global politics will occur between nations andgroups of different civilizations. The clash of civilizations will dominateglobal politics. The fault lines between civilizations will be the battle linesof the future.
我的假说是这样的，新世界中冲突最基本的根源将不会是原先的意识形态的或者是经济利益的。人类最大的分歧和冲突最主要的原因将是文化因素。民族国家仍将继续作为国际事务中最有力的角色，但是全球政治最主要的冲突将出现在属于不同文明的民族国家和国家集团之间。文明间的断层线将成为未来的战争线。
Conflict between civilizations will be the latest phase in the evolution ofconflict in the modern world. For a century and a half after the emergence ofthe modern international system with the Peace of Westphalia, the conflicts ofthe Western world were largely among princes-emperors, absolute monarchs andconstitutional monarchs attempting to expand their bureaucracies, their armies,their mercantilist economic strength and, most important, the territory theyruled. In the process they created nation states, and beginning with the FrenchRevolution the principal lines of conflict were between nations rather thanprinces. In 1793, as R. R. Palmer put it, 'The wars of kings were over; thewars of peoples had begun.' This nineteenth-century pattern lasted until theend of World War I. Then, as a result of the Russian Revolution and thereaction against it, the conflict of nations yielded to the conflict ofideologies, first among communism, fascism-Nazism and liberal democracy, andthen between communism and liberal democracy. During the Cold War, this latterconflict became embodied in the struggle between the two superpowers, neitherof which was a nation state in the classical European sense and each of whichdefined its identity in terms of its ideology.
文明间的冲突将成为世界进入现代以来冲突演进形式中的最新的一种形式。威斯特伐利亚和约标志着现代国际关系体系的形成，在此后长达一个半世纪的时间里，西方世界的冲突主要发生在国王和皇帝之间。绝对皇权和宪政君主都试图扩充他们的官僚机构、他们的军队，他们实行重商主义的经济力量，最重要的是他们统治下的领土。在这个过程中他们创造了民族国家，而从法国大革命开始最主要的战线，与其说是在王朝之间的，不如说是在国家之间的。在1792年，就像R·R· 帕尔马写道的：“国王之间的战争已经结束了，人民之间的战争已经开始了。”这种十九世纪的形式一直延续到一战结束。然后，作为俄国革命和反对俄国革命的结 果，国家间的冲突转变为意识形态之间的冲突，先是在共产主义、法西斯纳粹主义和自由民主之间的冲突，接着就变为共产主义和自由民主之间的冲突。在冷战中，共产主义和自由民主之间的冲突具体化为两个超级大国之间的冲突，这两个超级大国中的任何一个都不是欧洲经典意义上的民族国家，它们都以自己的意识形态作为确定自己身份的标准。
These conflicts between princes, nation states and ideologies were primarilyconflicts within Western civilization, 'Western civil wars,' as William Lindhas labeled them. This was as true of the Cold War as it was of the world warsand the earlier wars of the seventeenth, eighteenth and nineteenth centuries.With the end of the Cold War, international politics moves out of its Westernphase, and its centerpiece becomes the interaction between the West andnon-Western civilizations and among non-Western civilizations. In the politicsof civilizations, the peoples and governments of non-Western civilizations nolonger remain the objects of history as targets of Western colonialism but jointhe West as movers and shapers of history.
这些发生在王朝、民族国家、意识形态之间的冲突主要是西方世界内部的冲突，是“西方的内战”，威廉·杜德已经指出了这一点。冷战，两次世界大战，十七、十八、十九世纪的早期战争都是如此。冷战结束后，国际政治走过了西方阶段，它的中心变成了西方和非西方文明之间以及非西方文明之间的相互作用。在文明因素的政治阶段，非西方文明的人民和政府不再是西方殖民主义的属民而是和西方世界一起作为历史的推动者和塑造者。
THE NATURE OF CIVILIZATIONS
文明的特性
During the cold war the world was divided into the First, Second and ThirdWorlds. Those divisions are no longer relevant. It is far more meaningful nowto group countries not in terms of their political or economic systems or interms of their level of economic development but rather in terms of theirculture and civilization.
冷战期间，世界被划分为第一、第二、第三世界。这种划分不再适宜。从文明和文化的角度划分国家集团，比从政治经济体系和经济发展水平的角度划分更有意义。
What do we mean when we talk of a civilization? A civilization is a culturalentity. Villages, regions, ethnic groups, nationalities, religious groups, allhave distinct cultures at different levels of cultural heterogeneity. Theculture of a village in southern Italy may be different from that of a villagein northern Italy, but both will share in a common Italian culture thatdistinguishes them from German villages. European communities, in turn, willshare cultural features that distinguish them from Arab or Chinese communities.Arabs, Chinese and Westerners, however, are not part of any broader cultural entity.They constitute civilizations. A civilization is thus the highest culturalgrouping of people and the broadest level of cultural identity people haveshort of that which distinguishes humans from other species. It is defined bothby common objective elements, such as language, history, religion, customs,institutions, and by the subjective self-identification of people. People havelevels of identity: a resident of Rome may define himself with varying degreesof intensity as a Roman, an Italian, a Catholic, a Christian, a European, aWesterner. The civilization to which he belongs is the broadest levelofidentification with which he intensely identifies. People can and do redefinetheir identities and, as a result, the composition and boundaries of civilizationschange.
我们如何定义我们所谈及的文明呢？一个文明是一个文化实体，乡村、地区、民族团体、国家、宗教团体，它们都在文化异质性的不同层面具有显著不同的文化特征。南意大利的村社文化也许不同于北意大利的村社文化，但它们共有一个意大利文化，这使它们区别于德国村子。同理，欧洲的社群所共享的文化特征也使它们区别于阿拉伯和中国社群。然而，阿拉伯人、中国人、西方人，都就不再是某一更广文化实体的子集。他们都构成了文明。因而一个文明是人类最高的文化组群和最广泛意义上的文化实体，没有它人们不能把自己和别的种群区别开来。文明既被共享的客观因素，比如语言、历史、宗教、习俗、制度等限定，也被人们主观的自我认同感所界定。人们有几个层次的自我认同意识：一个罗马的居民可以用不同的标准把他自己界定为一个罗马人，一个意大利人，一个天主教徒，一个基督教徒，一个欧洲人，一个西方人。他所属的文明是他最强烈认同的最广泛意义上的认同。人们能够也确实在重新界定他们的身份，这是文明的构成和边界变迁的结果。
Civilizations may involve a large number of people, as with China ('acivilization pretending to be a state,' as Lucian Pye put it), or a very smallnumber of people, such as the Anglophone Caribbean. A civilization may includeseveral nation states, as is the case with Western, Latin American and Arabcivilizations, or only one, as is the case with Japanese civilization.Civilizations obviously blend and overlap, and may include subcivilizations.Western civilization has two major variants, European and North American, andIslam has its Arab, Turkic and Malay subdivisions. Civilizations arenonetheless meaningful entities, and while the lines between them are seldomsharp, they are real. Civilizations are dynamic; they rise and fall; theydivide and merge. And, as any student of history knows, civilizations disappearand are buried in the sands of time.
文明可能涉及大量的人口，比如中国（“一个假装成国家的文明”，白鲁恂这样说），或者少量人口，就像英语加勒比地区。一个文明可能包括几个民族国家，西方文明、拉丁美洲文明和阿拉伯文明都是这种情况。或者说，只有一个国家，比如说日本文明。显然文明互相混杂和重叠，还可能形成亚文明。西方文明生出两种主要变体，一种是欧洲，一种是北美，而伊斯兰文明有阿拉伯、土耳其和马来文明等分支。尽管如此，文明不是意义上的实体，而且它们之间也少有泾渭分明的界限，但它们是真实存在的。文明是变化的，它们上升或衰落，它们分裂或融合。所以，就像任何研究历史的人所了解到的一样，文明会消失，被时间的沙漠所掩埋。
Westerners tend to think of nation states as the principal actors in globalaffairs. Theyhave been that, however, for only a few centuries. The broaderreaches of human history have been the history of civilizations. In A Study ofHistory, Arnold Toynbee identified 21 major civilizations; only six of themexist in the contemporary world.
西方人倾向于认为民族国家是全球事务中的主要角色。它们一直如此，但是只限于几个世纪以来。在此之前的人类历史是文明的历史。在《历史研究》中，阿诺德·汤因比教授梳理出人类历史上21种主要文明，只有六种还存在于现在的世界中。
WHY CIVILIZATIONS WILL CLASH
文明为什么会冲突？
Civilization identity will be increasingly important in the future, and theworld will be shaped in large measure by the interactions among seven or eightmajor civilizations. These include Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic,Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African civilization. Themost important conflicts of the future will occur along the cultural faultlines separating these civilizations from one another.
在将来，基于文明的认同的重要性不断地增加，世界在很大的程度上将由七八个主要文明之间的互动所塑造。它们包括西方文明、儒家文明、日本文明、印度文明、斯拉夫-东正教文明、拉丁美洲文明，或许还有非洲文明。未来的最重要的冲突将沿着把这些文明之间的文明断层线展开。
Why will this be the case?
为什么会出现这种情况？
First, differences among civilizations are not only real; they are basic.Civilizations are differentiated from each other by history, language, culture,tradition and, most important, religion. The people of different civilizationshave different views on the relations between God and man, the individual andthe group, the citizen and the state, parents and children, husband and wife,as well as differing views of the relative importance of rights andresponsibilities, liberty and authority, equality and hierarchy. Thesedifferences are the product of centuries. They will not soon disappear. Theyare far more fundamental than differences among political ideologies andpolitical regimes. Differences do not necessarily mean conflict, and conflictdoes not necessarily mean violence. Over the centuries, however, differencesamong civilizations have generated the most prolonged and the most violentconflicts.
首先，文明间的差异不仅是真实的，而且是基本的。文明之间彼此区分依靠的是历史、语言、文化、传统等，最重要的，是宗教差异。不同文明的人对上帝与人、个人与团体、公民与国家、父母和子女、丈夫和妻子之间的关系有不同的看法，同样在权利与义务、自由与权威、平等和特权之间哪个更重要的看法是不同的，这些差异是多少世纪以来的产物。它们不会立即消失。它们远比政治意识形态和政权之间的差异更为根本。差异并不意味着冲突，冲突也不是必定意味着暴力。尽管如此，几个世纪以来，文明间的差异一直在造成最长期和最剧烈的冲突。
Second, the world is becoming a smaller place. The interactions between peoplesof different civilizations are increasing; these increasing interactionsintensify civilization consciousness and awareness of differences betweencivilizations and commonalities within civilizations. North African immigrationto France generates hostility among Frenchmen and at the same time increasedreceptivity to immigration by 'good'' European Catholic Poles. Americans reactfar more negatively to Japanese investment than to larger investments fromCanada and European countries. Similarly, as Donald Horowitz has pointed out,'An Ibo may be ... an Owerri Ibo or an Onitsha Ibo in what was the Easternregion of Nigeria. In Lagos, he is simply an Ibo. In London, he is a Nigerian.In New York, he is an African.' The interactions among peoples of differentcivilizations enhance the civilization-consciousness of people that, in turn,invigorates differences and animosities stretching or thought to stretch backdeep into history.
第二，世界正在变成一个越来越小的地方。不同文明的人们之间的互动一直在增加，这些不断增加的互动强化了文明意识，也增强了对文明之间、文明内部不同共同体之间差异的觉知。北非移民引起了法国人的敌意，而与此同时，法国人却增加了对品行良好的欧洲天主教波兰人的接纳感。美国人对待来自日本的投资的态度远比对来自加拿大和欧洲的更大规模投资充满敌意。类似的，就像唐纳德·郝洛维茨已经指出来的，在尼日利亚东部地区，一个伊布人可能是一个阿维里伊布人，也有可能是一个奥尼塔斯哈伊布人。在（首都）拉各斯，他就是一个伊布人，在伦敦他是一个尼日利亚人，在纽约他是一个非洲人。在不同文明中的人们之间的互动提高了人们的文明自我意识，转而，增强了差异，唤醒了可以回溯到历史深处的敌意，或者是被认为是可以回溯到历史深处的敌意。
Third, the processes of economicmodernization and social change throughout the world are separating people fromlongstanding local identities. They also weaken the nation state as a source ofidentity. In much of the world religion has moved in to fill this gap, often inthe form of movements that are labeled 'fundamentalist.' Such movements arefound in Western Christianity, Judaism, Buddhism and Hinduism, as well as inIslam. In most countries and most religions the people active in fundamentalistmovements are young, college-educated, middle-class technicians, professionalsand business persons. The 'unsecularization of the world,' George Weigel hasremarked, 'is one of the dominant social facts of life in the late twentiethcentury.' The revival of religion, 'la revanche de Dieu,' as Gilles Kepellabeled it, provides a basis for identity and commitment that transcendsnational boundaries and unites civilizations.
第三，全球范围的经济现代化和社会变革的过程，把人们同长期存在的本地身份定位分离出来。作为认同感来源之一的民族国家也被它们削弱了。在世界上很多地方，宗教已经行动起来，弥合这种裂隙，常常是以被称为“原教旨主义”的形式。西方基督教、犹太教、佛教和印度教中都出现了这些运动，正如和在伊斯兰教中一样。在很多国家和宗教里积极参加原教旨主义运动的是年轻的、受过高等教育的、中产阶级技术人员、专业人士和生意人。“这种世界性的去世俗化”，乔治·魏格拉已经提到过了，“是二十世纪后期社会生活中一股处于支配地位的潮流”。“宗教的复兴”，“上帝的回归”，就像吉尔斯·开普勒所指出的，为构建超越国家界限、联合不同文明的认同和使命提供了基础。