国际顶刊 | 《美国政治科学杂志》2023年7月第67卷第3期

01

期 刊 介 绍

American Journal of Political Science（AJPS, 《美国政治科学杂志》）致力于在公民身份、治理和政治的知识和理解方面取得重大进展，并致力于提高政治学研究的公共价值。作为美国中西部政治学协会的官方期刊，AJPS 发表政治学所有主要领域的研究，包括美国政治、公共政策、国际关系、比较政治、政治方法和政治理论。该刊寻求对政治学任何子领域的重要理论问题、经验问题或方法论的学术知识有突出贡献的稿件。该刊在《科睿唯安 2022 年期刊引用报告》（Clarivate JCR2022）中 JIF=4.2，在 187 种政治科学类（Political Science-SSCI）期刊中排名第 20（Q1）。

02

期刊目录

1.Indecent Disclosures: Anticorruption Reforms and Political Selection

不雅的披露： 反腐败改革与政治选择

2.The Great Society, Reagan’s Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting

伟大社会、里根革命和几任总统的投票情况

3.Mobilizing the Underrepresented: Electoral Systems and Gender Inequality in Political Participation

动员代表名额不足者：选举制度与政治参与中的性别不平等

4.Who Controls the Past: Far-Sighted Bargaining in International Regimes

谁控制了过去？国际制度中目光长远的讨价还价

5.Policy Networks Across Political Systems

跨政治体制的政策网络

6.Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data

利用时间序列横截面数据进行因果推断的匹配方法

7.Corporate Board Quotas and Gender Equality Policies in the Workplace

公司董事会配额和工作场所性别平等政策

8.How Norms Shape the Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics

规范如何塑造大众信仰体系的性质

9.Roadblocks: How Property Rights Undermine Development in Colombia

路障：产权如何破坏哥伦比亚的发展

10.A Priori Bounds on Legislative Bargaining Agreements

立法谈判协议的先验界限

11.Can Descriptive Representation Help the Right Win Votes from the Poor? Evidence from Brazil

描述性代表能帮助右翼赢得穷人的选票吗？巴西的证据

12.Ideological Competition

意识形态竞争

13.Risk Aversion and the Gender Gap in the Vote for Populist Radical Right Parties

风险规避与激进右翼民粹主义政党选票中的性别差距

14.Restoring Anáhuac: Indigenous Genealogies and Hemispheric Republicanism in Postcolonial Mexico

重建阿纳瓦克：后殖民时期墨西哥的土著谱系与半球共和主义

15.International Status Concerns and Domestic Support for Political Leaders

国际地位关切与国内对政治领袖的支持

16.Democratization, Elections, and Public Goods: The Evidence from Deforestation

民主化、选举和公益：森林砍伐的证据

17.Listening to Strangers, or: Three Arguments for Bounded Solidarity

倾听陌生人，或：有界团结的三个论点

18.How Organizational Capacity Can Improve Electoral Accountability

组织能力如何改善选举问责制

19.Can Democratic Principles Protect High Courts from Partisan Backlash? Public Reactions to the Kenyan Supreme Court’s Role in the 2017 Election Crisis

民主原则能否保护高级法院免受党派反弹？公众对肯尼亚最高法院在 2017 年选举危机中的作用的反应

20.Does Affective Polarization Undermine Democratic Norms or Accountability? Maybe Not

情感极化会破坏民主规范或问责制吗？也许不会

03

摘要译文

01 不雅的披露： 反腐败改革与政治选择

【题目】

Indecent Disclosures: Anticorruption Reforms and Political Selection

【作者】

David Szakonyi

【摘要】

反腐败改革的通过是否会影响希望在政府中任职的人员类型？本文利用普京时代俄罗斯25642次选举的数据，评估了一种常用的反腐工具——财务披露的效果。我认为，财务披露就像个人审计，为记者和检察官调查政府内外的非法所得提供了信息。利用交错选举，我发现要求财务披露会导致寻求连任的现任者减少约25%，有可疑财务记录的候选人减少10%。更大的媒体自由度和执法能力进一步增加了腐败和逃税行为被揭露的风险，导致那些被刑事曝光的候选人数量减少。即使在其他政治动机可能起作用的情况下，透明度的提高也会改变竞选公职的动机。

Does the passage of anticorruption reforms affect the types of people that want to serve in government? This article evaluates the effects of a common tool to fight corruption—financial disclosures—using data on 25,642 elections in Putin-era Russia. I argue that financial disclosures function like a personal audit, generating information for journalists and prosecutors to investigate illicit gains earned inside and outside of government. Exploiting staggered elections, I find that requiring financial disclosures leads to roughly 25% fewer incumbents seeking reelection and 10% fewer candidates with suspicious financial histories. Greater media freedom and law enforcement capacity further increase the risk of corruption and tax evasion being uncovered, resulting in even fewer candidacies from those criminally exposed. Increasing transparency changes the incentives for serving in elected office, even in settings where other political motives may be at play.

02 伟大社会、里根革命和几任总统的投票情况

【题目】

The Great Society, Reagan’s Revolution, and Generations of Presidential Voting

【作者】

Yair Ghitza, Andrew Gelman and Jonathan Auerbach

【摘要】

我们建立了一个美国总统投票模型，在这个模型中，政治事件留下的累积印象决定了选民的偏好。选民的印象因人而异，取决于他们在事件发生时的年龄。我们使用盖洛普总统支持率时间序列来反映影响选民偏好的重大事件，其中影响最大的事件发生在选民的青少年时期和成年早期。我们的拟合模型具有预测性，可以解释过去半个世纪投票趋势变化的 80% 以上。该模型还具有可解释性，可将选民划分为五代人：新政民主党人（New Deal Democrats）、艾森豪威尔共和党人、20世纪60年代的自由派、里根式保守派和千禧一代。我们从1940年开始到2016年大选结束，结合影响其偏好的政治事件来介绍每一代人。

We build a model of American presidential voting in which the cumulative impression left by political events determines the preferences of voters. The impression varies by voter, depending on their age at the time the events took place. We use the Gallup presidential approval-rating time series to reflect the major events that influence voter preferences, with the most influential occurring during a voter’s teenage and early adult years. Our fitted model is predictive, explaining more than 80% of the variation in voting trends over the last half-century. It is also interpretable, dividing voters into five meaningful generations: New Deal Democrats, Eisenhower Republicans, 1960s Liberals, Reagan Conservatives, and Millennials. We present each generation in context of the political events that shaped its preferences, beginning in 1940 and ending with the 2016 election.

03 动员代表名额不足者： 选举制度与政治参与中的性别不平等

【题目】

Mobilizing the Underrepresented: Electoral Systems and Gender Inequality in Political Participation

【作者】

Øyvind Søraas Skorge

【摘要】

为了研究代表性不足群体的政治动员问题，本文探讨了选举制度对投票中性别平等的影响。从理论上讲，我认为用比例代表制取代多党选举制会给政党精英们更大的动力去动员妇女在多党制下竞争最激烈的选区投票。然而，他们需要利用妇女网络才能成功地进行这种动员。在实证研究中，我通过研究挪威市政当局从多党制向多党制的强制转变，分离出了多党制的因果效应。通过差分设计，我估计从多党制到比例代表制的转变大大减少了投票中的性别不平等。这种效应在以前没有竞争的市镇和有妇女网络的市镇最为明显。因此，本研究证明了社会环境如何制约民主制度对边缘化群体政治参与的影响。

To study the political mobilization of underrepresented groups, this article examines the effect of electoral systems on gender equality in voting. Theoretically, I argue that replacing a plurality electoral system with proportional representation (PR) gives party elites greater incentives to mobilize women to vote in all but the most competitive districts under plurality rule. Yet, they need to tap into women’s networks to succeed with such mobilizing efforts. Empirically, I isolate the causal effect of PR by studying an imposed shift from plurality to PR in Norwegian municipalities. Using a difference-indifferences design, I estimate that the move from plurality to PR substantially decreased gender inequality in voting. The effect is most pronounced in previously uncompetitive municipalities and where women’s networks are present. This study thus demonstrates how the social environment conditions the effect of democratic institutions on the political participation of marginalized groups.

04 谁控制了过去？国际制度中目光长远的讨价还价

【题目】

Who Controls the Past: Far-Sighted Bargaining in International Regimes

【作者】

Amanda Kennard

【摘要】

国际制度如何随时间而变化？制度将原本临时性的谈判联系在一起，从而促进合作。这些联系内生了现状，而随后的谈判正是从这些现状出发的。我提出了国际制度内生现状的理论：先前的结果通过充当焦点和产生不一致成本，隐含地定义了新谈判的现状。我以多边贸易体制为背景，以新成员加入谈判为重点，检验了该理论的可观察影响。这些谈判吸引了世界贸易组织一部分成员的兴趣，令人吃惊，其中许多成员几乎没有可观察到的贸易联系或其他经济动机来参与。尽管如此，参与谈判使各国能够战略性地塑造新出现的现状，并对未来的谈判产生深远影响。我采用了文本即数据的方法，并结合新颖的谈判文件语料库，发现了理论和机制的一致支持。

How do international regimes change over time? Regimes facilitate cooperation by linking together otherwise ad hoc negotiations. These linkages endogenize the status quo from which subsequent negotiations depart. I develop a theory of endogenous status quo within international regimes: prior outcomes implicitly define the status quo of new negotiations by acting as focal points and by creating inconsistency costs. I test observable implications of the theory in the context of the multilateral trade regime, focusing on new member accession negotiations. These negotiations attract interest from a surprising subset of World Trade Organization members, many with few observable trade ties or other economic incentives to participate. Nonetheless participation enables states to shape the emergent status quo strategically, with potentially farreaching implications for future bargaining. I employ a text-as-data approach—together with a novel corpus of negotiating documents—finding consistent support for the theory and mechanisms.

05 跨政治体制的政策网络

【题目】

Policy Networks Across Political Systems

【作者】

Florence Metz and Laurence Brandenberger

【摘要】

政体决定了决策过程中参与者之间的权力结构和互动模式。虽然互动的社会结构是决策成功的关键，但目前仍不清楚不同政治体制中通常存在哪些关系结构。通过采用网络方法，我们分析了德国和瑞士共识-联邦制民主政体、法国多数-单一制民主政体以及荷兰共识-单一制混合民主政体中四个政策网络的权力结构和互动模式的差异。我们利用来自 149 个国家和非国家行为者的调查数据，拟合指数随机图模型并计算预测概率，对四个网络进行比较。结果表明，共识民主政体将网络邻域制度化，在这些网络邻域中，行动者分享权力并与对手合作。我们以多数民主制为例，说明权力集中同时限制了与竞争对手的接触，从而限制了与对手互动和寻求妥协的需要。考虑到政治体系的嵌入性，研究结果有助于未来的研究区分典型和非典型网络结构。

Polities shape power structures and interaction patterns between actors in policymaking processes. Although the social fabric of interactions is key to successful policymaking, it remains unclear which relational structures are typically found across political systems. By adopting a network approach, we analyse differences in power structures and interaction patterns across four policy networks in German and Swiss consensual–federal, French majoritarian–unitary, and hybrid Dutch consensual–unitary democracies. Using survey data from 149 state and non-state actors, we fit exponential random graph models and calculate predicted probabilities to compare the four networks. Results show that the consensus democracies institutionalize neighbourhoods of networks where actors share power and collaborate with opponents. Our case of a majoritarian democracy illustrates power concentration with restricted access to competitors, limiting the need to interact and search for compromises with opponents. Findings allow future work to differentiate typical from atypical network structures, given the embeddedness into a political system.

06 利用时间序列横截面数据进行因果推断的匹配方法

【题目】

Matching Methods for Causal Inference with Time-Series Cross-Sectional Data

【作者】

Kosuke Imai, In Song Kim and Erik H. Wang

【摘要】

匹配方法通过减少模型依赖性和提供直观诊断来提高因果推断的有效性。尽管匹配方法已成为各学科标准工具包的一部分，但在分析时间序列横截面数据时却很少使用。我们填补了这一方法空白。在所提出的方法中，我们首先将每个经处理的观测值与同一时期内其他单位的对照观测值进行匹配，这些单位在预设的滞后期数量之前具有相同的处理历史。我们使用标准的匹配和加权方法来进一步完善匹配集，使经处理的观测值和匹配的对照观测值具有相似的协变量值。通过检查协变量平衡来评估匹配的质量。最后，我们使用差异估计法估计短期和长期平均治疗效果，并考虑时间趋势。我们通过模拟和实证研究来说明所提出的方法。我们还提供了一个开源软件包，用于实施所提出的方法。

Matching methods improve the validity of causal inference by reducing model dependence and offering intuitive diagnostics. Although they have become a part of the standard tool kit across disciplines, matching methods are rarely used when analysing time-series cross-sectional data. We fill this methodological gap. In the proposed approach, we first match each treated observation with control observations from other units in the same time period that have an identical treatment history up to the prespecified number of lags. We use standard matching and weighting methods to further refine this matched set so that the treated and matched control observations have similar covariate values. Assessing the quality of matches is done by examining covariate balance. Finally, we estimate both short-term and long-term average treatment effects using the difference-in-differences estimator, accounting for a time trend. We illustrate the proposed methodology through simulation and empirical studies. An open-source software package is available for implementing the proposed methods.

07 公司董事会配额和工作场所性别平等政策

【题目】

Corporate Board Quotas and Gender Equality Policies in the Workplace

【作者】

Audrey Latura and Ana Catalano Weeks

【摘要】

公司董事会的性别配额是否会提高工作场所政策对性别平等的关注？现有研究探讨了配额、财务业绩和女性晋升之间的联系，但我们对配额如何影响工作场所性别失衡的结构性决定因素缺乏了解。我们将 2011 年采用配额制的意大利与没有配额制的反事实国家进行了比较： 希腊。我们采用差分法分析了两国上市公司的公司报告。我们发现，配额实施后，意大利公司对性别平等问题，尤其是与领导力和家庭关怀有关的问题，关注增加了 50%。这一增长并不完全是由女性在董事会中的比例驱动的，这表明配额制影响了公司中女性和男性对性别平等的重视程度。定性分析发现，观察到的变化并非装点门面：配额实施后，各公司制定了新的性别平等措施。

Do corporate board gender quotas increase attention to gender equality in workplace policies? Existing research examines the link between quotas, financial performance, and women’s promotion, but we lack an understanding of how quotas impact the structural determinants of gender imbalance in the workplace. We compare the case of Italy, which adopted a quota in 2011, to a counterfactual country with no quota: Greece. Using a difference-in-difference approach, we analyze the corporate reports of publicly listed companies in both countries over time. We find a 50% increase in post-quota Italian companies’ attention to gender equality issues, especially relating to leadership and family care. This increase is not exclusively driven by the share of women on boards, suggesting that quotas influence the importance that both women and men within firms give to gender equality. Qualitative analysis finds that observed changes are not window dressing: companies developed new equality initiatives after the quota.

08 规范如何塑造大众信仰体系的性质

【题目】

How Norms Shape the Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics

【作者】

Eric Groenendyk, Erik O. Kimbrough and Mark Pickup

【摘要】

应该如何理解意识形态，以及如果美国人缺乏意识形态，我们是否应该担心？通过将广泛使用的调查问题与激励协调博弈相结合，我们分别测量了个人自身的政策偏好以及他们对其他意识形态群体成员期望他们相信什么的了解。这样，我们就能将对意识形态规范的了解——自由派和保守派认为什么应该与什么相一致——与对这些规范的遵守区分开来。我们发现，在那些报告意识形态偏好不一致的人中，有相当一部分人是在知情的情况下这样做的，这表明他们缺乏意识形态约束可以归因于实用主义而非无知。此外，一个问题顺序实验显示，在测量政策偏好之前先引导意识形态规范会促进意识形态的坚持，这表明意识形态约束至少部分归因于规范一致性压力。这些发现共同提出了一个问题：意识形态是否真的是可取的，或者它是否允许精英们扭转问责的方向。

How should ideology be understood, and should we be concerned if Americans lack it? Combining widely used survey questions with an incentivized coordination game, we separately measure individuals’ own policy preferences and their knowledge of what other ideological group members expect them to believe. This allows us to distinguish knowledge of ideological norms—what liberals and conservatives believe ought to go with what—from adherence to those norms. We find that a nontrivial portion of those reporting ideologically inconsistent preferences do so knowingly, suggesting their lack of ideological constraint can be attributed to pragmatism rather than innocence. Additionally, a question order experiment reveals that priming ideological norms before measuring policy preferences promotes ideological adherence, suggesting ideological constraint is at least partially attributable to norm-conformity pressure. Together, these findings raise the question whether ideology is actually desirable or if it instead allows elites to reverse the direction of accountability.

09 路障：产权如何破坏哥伦比亚的发展

【题目】

Roadblocks: How Property Rights Undermine Development in Colombia

【作者】

Alisha C. Holland

【摘要】

政治经济模式将产权视为经济发展的关键。但是，强产权——定义为向更多索赔人提供更多补偿的规则——鼓励破坏基础设施投资的机会主义行为。强产权会导致：（1）现有产权所有者之间的抵制问题；（2）占用所需土地的基础设施巨头；（3）社区要求提供与之无关的地方公共产品的范围扩大。我借鉴了围绕哥伦比亚高速公路项目进行的原始定性研究，以说明社区如何利用其产权来获得更多补偿和集体利益。一项调查实验支持了这一理论的微观基础：突出强产权会增加补偿要求和法律索赔。国家审计报告显示，三分之二的高速公路项目存在机会主义行为。这些发现支持了一种被忽视的观点，即强产权是对国家主导的经济发展项目的一种制约。

Political economy models view property rights as the linchpin to economic development. But strong property rights—defined as rules that provide greater compensation to a larger set of claimants—encourage opportunistic behaviors that undermine infrastructure investments. Strong rights lead to (1) holdout problems among existing property owners, (2) infrastructure trolls who occupy needed land, and (3) scope expansions in which communities demand unrelated local public goods. I draw on original qualitative research around highway projects in Colombia to illustrate how communities leverage their property rights to secure greater compensation and collective goods. A survey experiment supports the microfoundations of the theory: making salient strong property rights increases compensation demands and legal claims. State audit reports reveal that opportunistic behavior occurs on two-thirds of highway projects. These findings bolster a neglected view of strong property rights as a check on state-led economic development projects.

10 立法谈判协议的先验界限

【题目】

A Priori Bounds on Legislative Bargaining Agreements

【作者】

Tasos Kalandrakis

【摘要】

在一个具有空间偏好的立法讨价还价的主力模型中，我建立了易于计算的所有均衡可接受协议、提案和结果的界限。这种方法是将模型中的均衡限制纳入立法机构相关性和结构性实证研究的可行方法，避免了实际均衡的计算。此外，它还在均衡立法决策的中心地位、均衡结果与社会选择解集的关系以及投票权和提案权变化的影响等方面提出了许多理论见解。这些理论结果突出了一个广泛的结论，即民主制度的正常运作在很大程度上取决于除投票权分配之外的其他制度特征。

In a workhorse model of legislative bargaining with spatial preferences, I establish easy to compute bounds on all equilibrium acceptable agreements, proposals, and outcomes. The approach constitutes a feasible method to incorporate equilibrium restrictions from the model in correlational and structural empirical studies of legislatures, avoiding the computation of actual equilibria. It also yields a number of theoretical insights on the centrality of equilibrium legislative decisions, the relation of such equilibrium outcomes with social choice solution sets, and the effect of changes on voting and proposal-making rights. These theoretical results highlight the broad conclusion that the proper functioning of democratic institutions is highly contingent on other institutional features besides the assignment of voting rights.

11 描述性代表能帮助右翼赢得穷人的选票吗？巴西的证据

【题目】

Can Descriptive Representation Help the Right Win Votes from the Poor? Evidence from Brazil

【作者】

Zuheir Desai and Anderson Frey

【摘要】

贫穷国家的右翼在选举中的成功通常归因于非政策性诉求，如裙带关系。候选人情况通常被忽视，因为如果选民重视基于阶级的描述性代表，那么使用这种描述性代表的应该是左派。在本文中，我们提出并检验了一种新的政策选择和候选人选择理论，该理论打破了这一传统观点：在高贫困地区，右翼才会利用描述性代表权。右派只有在与左派的扶贫政策相匹配时，才会在贫困地区具有竞争力。为了可信地转变立场，右派会提名在描述上更接近穷人的候选人。通过对巴西市政选举进行回归不连续设计，我们发现，只有在低贫困市镇，右翼市长在贫困人口上的支出才少于左翼市长。在贫困率高的市镇，右翼不仅与左翼的政策一致，而且在提名受教育程度较低的候选人时也是如此。

The electoral success of the Right in poor nations is typically attributed to nonpolicy appeals such as clientelism. Candidate profiles are usually ignored because if voters value class-based descriptive representation, it should be the Left that uses it. In this article, we develop and test a novel theory of policy choice and candidate selection that defies this conventional wisdom: it is the Right that capitalizes on descriptive representation in high-poverty areas. The Right is only competitive in poor regions when it matches the Left’s pro-poor policies. To credibly shift its position, it nominates candidates who are descriptively closer to the poor. Using a regression discontinuity design in Brazilian municipal elections, we show that Right-wing mayors spend less on the poor than Left-wing mayors only in low-poverty municipalities. In high-poverty municipalities, not only does the Right match the Left’s policies, it also does so while nominating less educated candidates.

12 意识形态竞争

【题目】

Ideological Competition

【作者】

Federica Izzo, Gregory J. Martin, Steven Callander

【摘要】

我们提出了一种政治竞争模式，这种竞争不是政策方案的竞争，而是意识形态的竞争：组织选民的经验并指导他们从观察到的结果中得出推论的世界模型。以政策为动机的政党发展意识形态，选民选择最能解释其观察结果的意识形态。选民对政策的偏好就会受到所采用的意识形态的影响。因此，政党关心的是在意识形态斗争中获胜，因为这会在选举中获得优势。我们的研究表明，在均衡状态下，政党总是提出不同的世界模型。这种分歧延伸到环境的所有特征，而不仅仅是政策层面。过去政策极端化的程度越低，政策维度上的分歧就越大，从而导致意识形态极化越严重。

We propose a model of political competition not over policy programs, but over ideologies: models of the world that organize voters’ experiences and guide the inferences they draw from observed outcomes. Policy-motivated political parties develop ideologies, and voters choose the ideology that best explains their observations. Preferences over policies are then induced by the adopted ideology. Parties thus care about winning the ideological battle as it confers an advantage in the electoral arena. We show that in equilibrium political parties always propose different models of the world. This divergence extends to all features of the environment, not just policy dimensions. A lower degree of policy extremism in the past increases the divergence on the policy dimension, thus leading to higher ideological polarization.

13 风险规避与激进右翼民粹主义政党选票中的性别差距

【题目】

Risk Aversion and the Gender Gap in the Vote for Populist Radical Right Parties

【作者】

Odelia Oshri, Liran Harsgor, Reut Itzkovitch-Malka, Or Tuttnauer

【摘要】

以往的研究表明，男性比女性更倾向于投票支持激进右翼民粹主义政党。本文展示了激进右翼民粹主义政党在选举成功方面的跨国和跨时空差异如何与个人的风险倾向相互作用，从而影响这种性别差距。我们假设，激进右翼民粹主义政党选举支持率的性别差异源于风险承担的差异。我们将风险概念化为社会风险和选举风险，并证明女性在这两方面都更倾向于规避风险。我们的分析基于14个国家（2002-2016年）的民意数据，并结合了有关激进右翼民粹主义政党过去在议会中表现的宏观数据。为了区分风险承担中的社会因素和选举因素，我们以德国为例进行了说明性研究。研究结果表明，风险承担中的性别差异以及女性和男性对选举环境的反应差异是理解投票性别差距的关键。

Previous research has established that men are more likely to vote for populist radical right parties (PRRPs) than women. This article shows how cross-national and temporal variations in PRRPs’ electoral success interact with individuals’ risk propensity to affect this gender gap. We hypothesize that gender differences in the electoral support of PRRPs stem from disparities in risk-taking. We conceptualize risk in terms of two components, social and electoral, and demonstrate that women are more risk-averse regarding both. Our analysis is based on public opinion data from 14 countries (2002–16) combined with macrolevel data on PRRPs’ past parliamentary fortunes. To distinguish between the social and electoral components in risk-taking, we use the illustrative case study of Germany. Findings demonstrate that gender differences in risk-taking and, by implication, the differences between women’s and men’s responses to the electoral context are key to understanding the voting gender gap.

14 重建阿纳瓦克：后殖民时期墨西哥的土著谱系与半球共和主义

【题目】

Restoring Anáhuac: Indigenous Genealogies and Hemispheric Republicanism in Postcolonial Mexico

【作者】

Arturo Chang

【摘要】

本文转向后殖民时期的墨西哥，分析土著政治思想对革命时代激进共和主义转型的重要性。我认为，墨西哥起义者利用土著谱系实现了我所说的“恢复性革命”，这是一种优先考虑纪念而非绝对基础的革命思想形式。墨西哥的恢复性项目始于呼吁阿纳瓦克帝国的回归，这是一个土著谱系，它纪念了人民自治的历史，使后殖民主义的要求合法化。我认为，阿纳瓦克运动通过围绕宗教、平民和半球身份进行动员，改变了激进共和思想的原则。这些特征中的每一个都使共和主义作为世俗、精英和国家事业的主流解释受到质疑。本文利用流行物品和档案简历来说明从边缘化群体的空间、实践和语言来了解他们的政治贡献的重要性，他们用集体的方式来设想后殖民解放。

This article turns to postcolonial Mexico to analyze the importance of Indigenous political thought for the transformation of radical republicanism during the Age of Revolutions. I argue that Mexican insurgents deployed Indigenous genealogies to instantiate what I call “restorative revolution,” a form of revolutionary thinking that prioritized memorialization over absolute foundation. Mexico’s restorative project began with calls for the return of the Anáhuac Empire, an Indigenous genealogy that memorialized histories of popular self-rule to legitimize postcolonial demands. I suggest that the Anáhuac movement transformed the principles of radical republican thought by mobilizing around religious, plebeian, and hemispheric identities. Each of these characteristics problematizes dominant interpretations of republicanism as a secular, elite, and national enterprise. This article uses popular objects and archival ephemera to illustrate the importance of engaging with the political contributions of marginalized groups from the spaces, practice, and languages they used to envision postcolonial emancipation in collective terms.

15 国际地位关切与国内对政治领袖的支持

【题目】

International Status Concerns and Domestic Support for Political Leaders

【作者】

Ryan Powers, Jonathan Renshon

【摘要】

我们研究了公众对国际地位的关注如何影响对政治领导人的支持，认为由于地位竞争在社会生活中无处不在，而国际地位竞争又需要高调展示科学或军事智慧，因此公众很可能会关注外交政策危机对地位的影响。我们在四个问题领域的七个调查实验中验证了这一论点。结果显示，世界事务中的不利结果会增加对国际地位丧失的预期，并通过这种机制降低总统的支持率。对开放式调查回答的分析表明，公众对国际地位的看法与国际关系学者的看法大致相同：国际地位是多维的、立场性的和工具性的。总之，我们的研究结果表明，公众对国际地位的关注对领导人有重大影响，并为公众如何分析国外事件的影响提供了新的视角。

We study how international status concerns among the public affect support for political leaders, arguing that because status competition is pervasive in social life and because international status competition entails high-profile displays of scientific or martial savvy, the public is likely to be attuned to the status implications of foreign policy crises. We test this argument in seven survey experiments across four issue areas. The results show that adverse outcomes in world affairs increase expectations of international status loss and, through that mechanism, reduce presidential approval. Analysis of open-ended survey responses reveals that the public views international status in much the same way that international relations scholars do: it is multidimensional, positional, and instrumentally useful. Taken together, our results suggest that the public’s international status concerns have significant implications for leaders and offer new insight into how the public parses the implications of events abroad

16 民主化、选举和公益：森林砍伐的证据

【题目】

Democratization, Elections, and Public Goods: The Evidence from Deforestation

【作者】

Luke Sanford

【摘要】

本文表明，在过去三十年中，竞争性选举与森林砍伐的增加有关。对林区的保护提供了长期的公共产品，而对林区的破坏则为特定选民提供了短期的私人产品。面临竞争性选举的政治家向选民提供主要用于小规模农业或木材商业用途的林区，以换取选举支持。我利用卫星生成的全球森林覆盖率数据和 1982 年至 2016 年间 1000 多场国家级选举的结果，检验了这一政治毁林理论。我发现，经历民主转型的国家每年的森林覆盖率会增加 0.8 个百分点；与没有选举的年份相比，选举结果接近的年份每年的森林覆盖率损失会增加 1 个百分点以上；当选举中的胜负差减少 10 个百分点时，森林砍伐量每年会增加 0.7 个百分点。这些增幅相当于全球森林平均损失率的 5-10 倍。这表明，民主化与环境公共产品供应不足有关，而有争议的选举是造成这种供应不足的部分原因。

This article shows that over the last three decades, competitive elections were associated with increased deforestation. Protection of forested areas provides long-term public goods, while their destruction provides short-term private goods for particular voters. Politicians facing a competitive election offer voters access to forested areas mainly for small-scale farming or commercial use of timber in exchange for electoral support. I test this theory of political deforestation using satellite generated global forest cover data and the results of over 1,000 national-level elections between 1982 and 2016. I find that countries that undergo a democratic transition lose an additional 0.8 percentage points of their forest cover each year, that years with close elections have over 1 percentage point per year higher forest cover loss compared to nonelection years, and that as the margin of victory in an election decreases by 10 points, the amount of deforestation increases by 0.7 percentage points per year. These increases are on the order of 5–10 times the average rate of forest loss globally. This suggests democratization is associated with underprovision of environmental public goods and contested elections are partially responsible for this underprovision.

17 倾听陌生人，或：有界团结的三个论点

【题目】

Listening to Strangers, or: Three Arguments for Bounded Solidarity

【作者】

Nathan Pippenger

【摘要】

有界团结最近受到了批评，理由是它重视同质性，武断地将同胞置于外人之上，最终对民主毫无必要。对此，辩护者认为，团结是有价值的，因为它支持福利国家或非同族的共和理想。本文认为，这些辩护未能证明有界团结并不像批评者所说的那样是多余的，因此这一理想很容易被否定。文章借鉴协商民主理论，指出公民之间的有界团结对于建立民主自决的认识论先决条件是必要的。从认识论的角度来理解，有界团结——公民收集并重视其他公民观点的倾向——值得支持，因为它与民主自治的宝贵目标密不可分。

Bounded solidarity has recently been criticized on the grounds that it valorizes homogeneity, arbitrarily prioritizes compatriots over outsiders, and is ultimately unnecessary to democracy. In response, defenders argue that solidarity is valuable because it supports the welfare state or a republican ideal of nondomination. This article argues that such defenses fail to demonstrate that bounded solidarity is not superfluous in the way that critics have claimed, leaving the ideal vulnerable to dismissal. Drawing on deliberative democratic theory, it shows that bounded solidarity among citizens is necessary in order to establish the epistemic preconditions of democratic self-determination. Understood in epistemic terms, bounded solidarity—a disposition among citizens to gather, and assign weight to, the perspectives of other citizens—deserves support because it is inextricable from the valuable goal of democratic self-rule.

18 组织能力如何改善选举问责制

【题目】

How Organizational Capacity Can Improve Electoral Accountability

【作者】

Dana Foarta

【摘要】

官僚机构的组织结构是决定政策结果的关键因素。官僚机构的组织能力差异很大，这使得政治家可以从战略上影响政策的实施。本文探讨了官僚结构对选民要求政治家承担选举责任的能力的影响。文章明确地模拟了不同官僚机构在组织能力上的差异，并考虑了这样一个问题：政治家不仅要决定选择哪项政策，还要决定由哪个机构或机构组合来执行。对执行的选择又会反馈到对政策的选择上，这反过来又会影响选民对执政者表现的看法。这就形成了一个从机构结构到政策选择和政治责任的相互依存的链条。正式模型表明，组织能力的变化通过改善对政治家的选举控制，为选民的利益服务。

The organizational structure of the bureaucracy is a key determinant of policy outcomes. Bureaucratic agencies exhibit wide variation in their organizational capacity, which allows politicians to strategically shape policy implementation. This article examines what bureaucratic structure implies for the ability of voters to hold politicians electorally accountable. It explicitly models differences in organizational capacity across bureaucratic agencies and considers a problem where a politician must decide not only which policy to choose but which agency, or combination of agencies, will implement it. The choice of implementation feeds back into the choice of policy and this, in turn, affects how voters perceive the performance of the incumbent. This creates a chain of interdependence from agency structure to policy choice and political accountability. The formal model shows that the variation in organizational capacity serves the interests of voters by improving electoral control of politicians.

19 民主原则能否保护高级法院免受党派反弹？公众对肯尼亚最高法院在2017年选举危机中的作用的反应

【题目】

Can Democratic Principles Protect High Courts from Partisan Backlash? Public Reactions to the Kenyan Supreme Court’s Role in the 2017 Election Crisis

【作者】

Brandon L. Bartels, Jeremy Horowitz, Eric Kramon

【摘要】

公众的支持对司法权的崛起至关重要。传统智慧认为，公民对民主和法治的承诺会维持这种支持。其含义是，这种承诺应能保护法院在做出有争议的裁决后免受党派的反弹。但这一点在很大程度上仍未得到验证。肯尼亚最高法院 2017 年历史性的选举裁决为检验这一预期提供了一个不同寻常的机会。在宣布现任总统的胜选无效后，最高法院又维持了他有争议的连任胜选。通过在重选前后进行的全国小组调查数据，我们发现了司法权支持的重要党派撤出/增加。没有证据表明民主原则削弱了党派的反弹；有些民主原则与党派反弹的扩大有关。然而，尽管有反弹，党派失败者仍保持了中等程度的高支持率。研究结果推动了关于公众对司法权支持的讨论，并提供了新的证据，说明在新民主国家和选举专制政权中，公众对司法权主张的反应。

Public support is central to the emergence of judicial power. Conventional wisdom holds that citizen commitment to democracy and the rule of law sustains this support. An implication is that such commitments should protect courts from partisan backlash following contentious rulings. But this remains largely untested. The Kenyan Supreme Court’s historic 2017 elections rulings provide an unusual opportunity to test this expectation. After annulling the incumbent president’s victory, the Court upheld his controversial repeat-election win. With data from a national panel survey—conducted before and after the repeat election—we find important partisan-based withdrawals/increases in judicial-power support. There is no evidence that democratic principles attenuated partisan backlash; some were associated with its amplification. However, partisan losers maintain moderately high support despite backlash. Results advance debates about public support for judicial power and provide new evidence about public reactions to assertions of judicial authority in new democracies and electoral autocratic regimes.

20 情感极化会破坏民主规范或问责制吗？也许不会

【题目】

Does Affective Polarization Undermine Democratic Norms or Accountability? Maybe Not

【作者】

David E. Broockman, Joshua L. Kalla, Sean J. Westwood

【摘要】

学者们警告说，情感极化会破坏民主规范和问责制。他们推测，如果公民的情感极化程度较低，那么他们就不太可能认可违反规范的行为、忽视共党政治家的缺点、反对妥协、采纳本党的观点或误解经济状况。我们有理由怀疑情感极化会影响政治选择。我们通过五项实验支持这一论点，这些实验采用多种方法操纵公民的情感极化。然后，我们追溯了操纵公民情感极化的下游后果，如他们对国会中实际代表信息的反应。在我们的实验中（总样本数=12341），我们 "倒带 "了相当于三十年的情感极化变化，但没有发现证据表明这些变化影响了许多政治结果，只是影响了有关人际态度的一般问题。我们的结果表明，在假定减少情感两极分化会有意义地加强民主规范或问责制时，应谨慎行事。

Scholars warn that affective polarization undermines democratic norms and accountability. They speculate that if citizens were less affectively polarized, they would be less likely to endorse norm violations, overlook copartisan politicians’ shortcomings, oppose compromise, adopt their party’s views, or misperceive economic conditions. We advance reasons to doubt that affective polarization influences political choices. We support this argument with five experiments that manipulate citizens’ affective polarization with multiple approaches. We then trace the downstream consequences of manipulating citizens’ affective polarization, such as their reactions to information about their actual representatives in Congress. In our experiments (total N = 12341), we “rewind” the equivalent of three decades of change in affective polarization but find no evidence that these changes influence many political outcomes, only general questions about interpersonal attitudes. Our results suggest caution when assuming that reducing affective polarization would meaningfully bolster democratic norms or accountability.

翻  译：郭见田 孙滢

校  对：孙滢 郭见田

相关阅读

编辑：孙则尧

一审：聂凯巍

二审：大    兰

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编译属外文编译部译者志愿提供，如有不妥欢迎指正；如对我们的工作有什么建议，欢迎到后台留言。本文仅为资源共享、学习参考之目的，并不代表本平台赞同其观点或对其真实性负责，本平台不承担文章侵权行为的连带责任。如需转载本文，请后台联系。