贸易战，真打还是假打（上）

这周被刷屏的显然是贸易战，以及动荡的股市。很多的新闻很多的评价。总给我语焉不详的感觉。所以这个至关重要的问题，我打算自己研究一下。
PhD有自己的研究方式，主要是读论文。关于这个问题，论文是没得读的。但是特朗普的白宫发言原稿是在白宫网站上放着的。我们可以读一读到底里面说了一些什么。

本文打算分上下两篇。上一篇主要就是读一下特朗普演讲原文。

Diplomatic Room

12:45 P.M. EDT

THE PRESIDENT:  Well, thank you everybody.  This has been long in the making.  You’ve heard many, many speeches by me and talks by me, and interviews where I talk about unfair trade practices.  We’ve lost, over a fairly short period of time, 60,000 factories in our country — closed, shuttered, gone.  Six million jobs, at least, gone.  And now they’re starting to come back.  You see what’s happening with Chrysler, with Foxconn, with so many other companies wanting to come back into the United States.

But we have one particular problem.  And I view them as a friend; I have tremendous respect for President Xi.  We have a great relationship.  They’re helping us a lot in North Korea.  And that’s China.

传闻朝鲜和美国最高领导人要直接见面。外部一直揣测这对中国不是好事情。但是特朗普公开承认，中国在朝鲜问题上帮忙很多。

But we have a trade deficit, depending on the way you calculate, of $504 billion.  Now, some people would say it’s really $375 billion.  Many different ways of looking at it, but any way you look at it, it is the largest deficit of any country in the history of our world.  It’s out of control.

We have a tremendous intellectual property theft situation going on, which likewise is hundreds of billions of dollars.  And that’s on a yearly basis.  I’ve spoken to the President.  I’ve spoken to representatives of China.  We’ve been dealing with it very seriously.

贸易差，5040亿美元或者3750亿美元。更重要的是知识产权盗窃。此外，特朗普首次公开承认和中国在商谈。

As you know, we’re renegotiating NAFTA.  We’ll see how that turns out.  Many countries are calling to negotiate better trade deals because they don’t want to have to pay the steel and aluminum tariffs.  And we are negotiating with various countries — Mr. Lighthizer, Mr. Ross.

We are just starting a negotiation with the European Union because they’ve really shut out our country to a large extent.  They have barriers that — they can trade with us but we can’t trade with them.  They’re very strong barriers.  They have very high tariffs.  We don’t.  It’s just not fair.

NAFTA has been a very bad deal for the United States, but we’ll make it better or we’ll have to do something else.  The deal we have with South Korea is a very one-sided deal.  It’s a deal that has to be changed.

So we have a lot of things happening.  But in particular, with China, we’re going to be doing a Section 301 trade action.  It could be about $60 billion but that’s really just a fraction of what we’re talking about.

这段主要讲美国和各国的贸易不公平，需要重新商谈北美自贸协定（美国墨西哥加拿大），需要和欧盟商谈，因为对方可以卖东西到美国来但是美国卖不过去。和韩国的协议特朗普认为更是灾难。但是，重中之重是中国。特朗普要用301条款，这个可能是关于600亿美元的产品加税。但是重点是，这只是一部分而已。所以下面可能还有更多的东西。

I’ve been speaking with the highest Chinese representatives, including the President, and I’ve asked them to reduce the trade deficit immediately by $100 billion.  It’s a lot.  So that would be anywhere from 25 percent, depending on the way you figure, to maybe something even more than that.  But we have to do that.

The word that I want to use is “reciprocal.”  When they charge 25 percent for a car to go in, and we charge 2 percent for their car to come into the United States, that’s not good.  That’s how China rebuilt itself.  The tremendous money that we’ve paid since the founding of the World Trade Organization — which has actually been a disaster for us.  It’s been very unfair to us.  The arbitrations are very unfair.  The judging has been very unfair.  And knowingly, we always have a minority and it’s not fair.

So we’re talking to World Trade, we’re talking to NAFTA, we’re talking to China, we’re talking to the European Union.  And I will say, every single one of them wants to negotiate.  And I believe that, in many cases — maybe all cases — we’ll end up negotiating a deal.

这里第二次提到了特朗普和中国的代表包括习大大都在谈。特朗普要求减少贸易逆差1000亿美元。他举例说明美国车进中国要收25%的关税但是中国车进美国才交2%的关税。不过这个例子很有意思，我在美国就没看到过中国车，在中国倒是能看到很多美国车。但是这段的重点是特朗普商人思维的体现，特朗普在和中国谈，和欧盟谈，等等，最终他觉得大部分情况下能谈出一个deal来。

So we’ve spoken to China and we’re in the midst of a very large negotiation.  We’ll see where it takes us.  But in the meantime, we are sending a Section 301 action.  I’ll be signing it right here, right now.  I’d like to ask Bob Lighthizer to say a few words about the 301 and where we are in that negotiation.

And we’re doing things for this country that should have been done for many, many years.  We’ve had this abuse by many other countries and groups of countries that were put together in order to take advantage of the United States, and we don’t want that to happen.  We’re not going to let that happen.  It’s probably one of the reasons I was elected; maybe one of the main reasons.  But we’re not going to let that happen.

We have, right now, an $800 billion trade deficit with the world.  So think of that.  So let’s say we have 500 to 375, but let’s say we have 500 with China, but we have 800 total with the world.  That would mean that China is more than half.  So we’re going to get it taken care of.  And, frankly, it’s going to make us a much stronger, much richer nation.

The word is “reciprocal.”  That’s the word I want everyone to remember.  We want reciprocal — mirror.  Some people call it a mirror tariff or a mirror tax.  Just use the word reciprocal.  If they charge us, we charge them the same thing.  That’s the way it’s got to be.  That’s not the way it is.  For many, many years — for many decades, it has not been that way.

And I will say, the people we’re negotiating with — smilingly, they really agree with us.  I really believe they cannot believe they’ve gotten away with this for so long.

I’ll talk to Prime Minister Abe of Japan and others — great guy, friend of mine — and there will be a little smile on their face.  And the smile is, “I can’t believe we’ve been able to take advantage of the United States for so long.”  So those days are over.

这段话有很多信息，讲重点。特朗普表示和中国正在紧锣密鼓的谈判，但是同时启动特别301条款。所以301条款看起来是给谈判增加砝码的做法。是不是真的会实施还需要观望。

另外一点是美国在全球有8000亿贸易逆差，但是在中国有5000亿，所以中国占了一半以上，因此和中国的问题在特朗普看来最重要。

特朗普觉得对方收美国多少税，美国也应该收对方多少税。但是实际上不是的，美国收税要少。全世界都在占美国的便宜。这是他被选上来的主要原因之一。所以他要开始给全世界征税。最后一段他举了日本首相安倍晋三的例子。安倍在笑，笑里蕴含着的含义是“我无法想象我们居然占了美国人便宜那么久”。

总而言之全世界都在占美国人便宜。

Ambassador Lighthizer, thank you.

AMBASSADOR LIGHTHIZER:  Well, thank you very much, Mr. President.  First of all, for those of you who don’t know, Section 301 is a statute that gives substantial power, authority to the President to correct actions in certain circumstances where there’s unfair acts, policies, or practices by our trading partners.

In this case, the area is technology.  Technology is probably the most important part of our economy.  There’s 44 million people who work in high-tech knowledge areas.  No country has as much technology-intensive industry as the United States.  And technology is really the backbone of the future of the American economy.

Given these problems, the President asked USTR to conduct a study.  We conducted a thorough study.  We had hearings.  We reviewed tens of thousands of pages of documents.  We talked to many, many business people.  We had testimony, as I say.

And we concluded that, in fact, China does have a policy of forced technology transfer; of requiring licensing at less than economic value; of state capitalism, wherein they go in and buy technology in the United States in non-economic ways; and then, finally, of cyber theft.

The result of this has been that the President has analyzed it — we have a 200-page study which we will put out — and he has concluded that we should put in place tariffs on appropriate products — we can explain later how we concluded what products they are; that we would put investment restrictions on China with respect to high technology; and that we’ll file a WTO case.  Because one of the actions here does involve a WTO violation.

This is an extremely important action, very significant and very important for the future of the country, really, across industries.  And I would really like to thank you very much, Mr. President, for giving me the opportunity to work on it.

这段美国现任贸易代表的话，非常的有意思。基本上把特朗普前面说的话的重要性都掩盖了，目标明确的说这次美中贸易战的问题是什么：高科技行业。

简而言之这次启动301条款是因为中国对美国高科技的窃取。所以美国会限制对中国高科技的投资，另外也会在WTO的框架下起诉。

这画风一下从贸易顺差到了高科技行业，让我一时之间有点糊涂。

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you very much, Bob.  Secretary Ross.

SECRETARY ROSS:  Intellectual property rights are our future, and it’s no accident that in June of this year, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office will issue its 10 millionth patent — 10 million patents.  There’s no country in the history of the world that remotely approaches that.

So the steel and aluminum actions we’ve taken deal more or less with the present.  This action on intellectual property rights deals with the future.  So we’re trying to solve both today’s problem and problems that otherwise will be forthcoming.  That’s why these actions are so important and so important in unison with each other.  We will end up negotiating these things, rather than fighting over them, in my view.

换个人再次强调知识产权是美国的未来。钢铁和铝是美国的现在，但是高科技和知识产权是美国的未来。所以这次特别301条款固然是冲着钢铁和铝过来，更核心的问题是高科技。

但是很有意思的是，这里继续强调了，美国会和中国谈一个deal，而不是打贸易战。不知道这个deal要怎么谈。

THE PRESIDENT:  Mike Pence, would you like to say something?

THE VICE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Mr. President, and to all our honored guests.  Today’s action sends a clear message that this President and our entire administration are determined to put American jobs and American workers first.

The action the President will take today under Section 301 also makes it clear that the era of economic surrender is over.  The United States of America is taking targeted and focused action to protect not only American jobs, but America’s technology, which will power and drive an innovation economy for decades to come.

It is just one more step of a promise made and a promise kept by President Trump.

副总统总是一如既往的傻逼。说的都是跪舔的废话。

THE PRESIDENT:  So we’ll sign right now.  I just want to let everybody know, just for a second time, that we are in the midst of very major and very positive negotiations.  Positive for the United States and, actually, very positive for other countries also.

总统签了301，却同时告诉大家中国和美国正在进行非常有建设性的谈判。由此看来，301条款应该更多的是给谈判增加压力，好让美国人更有利。

We have some of our great business leaders — and leaders, period — right behind me.  I may ask Marillyn — Lockheed — the leading woman’s business executive in this country, according to many.  And we buy billions and billions of dollars’ worth of that beautiful F-35.  It’s stealth.  You cannot see it.  Is that correct?

MS. HEWSON:  That’s correct, Mr. President.

THE PRESIDENT:  Better be correct.  Right?

MS. HEWSON:  Absolutely.

THE PRESIDENT:  Marillyn, please say a few words.

MS. HEWSON:  Well, thank you, Mr. President.  I would just say that this is a very important moment for our country, in that we are addressing what is a critical area for the aerospace and defense industry, and that is protecting our intellectual property.  As has been expressed, that is a threat to us if we have that stolen from our companies, because that is the lifeblood of our companies.

And so, we very much welcome this action on the part of the Trump administration and the President of the United States.  Thank you.

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Marillyn.

这段话让我非常的不安。美国总统选了洛克希德马丁的CEO来作为商业代表上台演讲。武器是中国人最不可能获得的高科技领域。如果拎个谷歌的人上来我毫不吃惊，但是弄过做武器的来，岂不是说中国威胁论甚嚣尘上，在美国的中国人，都要面对新一轮的排华了？

This is the first of many.  This is number one, but this is the first of many.

(The memorandum is signed.)

Thank you all very much.  Marillyn.  Thank you very much.

MS. HEWSON:  Thank you, Mr. President.

Q    Mr. President, would you still like to testify to the Special Counsel, Robert Mueller?

THE PRESIDENT:  I would like to.  I would like to.

END

先写个简单的结论。Trump显然是把中国作为了重点的对象。但是北美，欧盟，日本等传统盟友也需要让利。

他要解决的是贸易逆差问题。到了美国贸易代表那却变成了知识产权和高科技的问题。是中国的高科技发展让美国害怕了吗？

最后拉上来的是个武器制造商的CEO。中国最难获得的高科技领域的代表来谈中国威胁论。给我感觉是想说美国的华人，尤其给武器公司工作的人里，间谍或者值得怀疑的人很多啊。

但是又在不停强调大家不会打，在谈。所以事情看起来会很持久很麻烦。对中国不一定是好事情，对在海外的华人尤其不是好事情。美国现代排华法案通过未必不可能。

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