双语阅读｜亚马逊帝国才刚刚起步
AMAZON is an extraordinary company. The former bookseller accounts for more than half of every new dollar spent online in America. It is the world’s leading provider of cloud computing. This year Amazon will probably spend twice as much on television as HBO, a cable channel. Its own-brand physical products include batteries, almonds, suits and speakers linked to a virtual voice-activated assistant that can control, among other things, your lamps and sprinkler.
亚马逊是一家与众不同的企业。美国的网购消费每增加一美元，就有一多半流进了亚马逊，之前以网上书店起家，现在是世界领先的云计算提供商。今年，亚马逊在电视上的投入或许会是有线电视网HBO的两倍。亚马逊自营品牌有许多实体产品，包括电池，杏仁，西装和智能扬声器等。智能扬声器与虚拟声控助手连接，能够控制你的电灯或者淋浴开关。
Yet Amazon’s shareholders are working on the premise that it is just getting started. Since the beginning of 2015 its share price has jumped by 173%, seven times quicker than in the two previous years (and 12 times faster than the S&P 500 index). With a market capitalisation of some $400bn, it is the fifth-most-valuable firm in the world. Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.
然而，亚马逊的股东们正努力形成共识：公司才刚刚起步。 自2015年初以来，亚马逊的股价暴涨了173％，比前两年增长的7倍（比标准普尔500指数增长快了12倍）。它的市值约有4000亿美元，是世界第五大估值最高的企业。之前从来没有一家公司能在盈利如此少的情况下长期维持这么高的市值：它的市值有92%来自于2020年以后的预期盈利。
That is because investors anticipate both an extraordinary rise in revenue, from sales of $136bn last year to half a trillion over the next decade, and a jump in profits. The hopes invested in it imply that it will probably become more profitable than any other firm in America. Ground for scepticism does not come much more fertile than this: Amazon will have to grow faster than almost any big company in modern history to justify its valuation. Can it possibly do so?
这是因为投资人不仅预期其收入会猛增，即在未来十年里，销售额能从2016年的1360亿美元涨到每年5000亿美元，同时也期待着利润飙升。这些所寄托的希望意味着亚马逊可能会成为美国盈利最多的企业。当然也有很多质疑的声音：为了达到期望的市值，亚马逊的增长速度将必须超过现代历史上几乎所有的大企业。它能做到吗？
It is easy to tick off some of the pitfalls. Rivals will not stand still. Microsoft has cloud-computing ambitions; Walmart already has revenues nudging $500bn and is beefing up online. If anything happened to Jeff Bezos, Amazon’s founder and boss, the gap would be exceptionally hard to fill. But the striking thing about the company is how much of a chance it has of achieving such unprecedented goals.
困难当然也很多。竞争对手们并不会坐以待毙。微软对云计算虎视眈眈；沃尔玛拥有了近5000亿美元的年收入，网购收入还在不断增加。亚马逊创始人和总裁杰夫•贝索斯（Jeff Bezos）如果稍有不慎，这个差距将非常难以填补。 但是，最重要的问题就在于，亚马逊有多大机会能够实现这样前所未有的目标。
A new sort of basket-case
新型商业模式
This is largely due to the firm’s unusual approach to two dimensions of corporate life. The first of these is time. In an era when executives routinely whinge about pressure to produce short-term results, Amazon is resolutely focused on the distant horizon. Mr Bezos emphasises continual investment to propel its two principal businesses, e-commerce and Amazon Web Services (AWS), its cloud-computing arm.
这主要是由于亚马逊对企业生活两个维度的不同寻常的管理方法。第一个就是时间。现如今，高管们经常抱怨由各种短期任务带来的压力，亚马逊坚决把重点放在长期目标上。贝索斯强调要通过持续投资来推动其两大业务的发展，即电子商务和云计算领域Amazon Web Services（AWS）。
In e-commerce, the more shoppers Amazon lures, the more retailers and manufacturers want to sell their goods on Amazon. That gives Amazon more cash for new services—such as two-hour shipping and streaming video and music—which entice more shoppers. Similarly, the more customers use AWS, the more Amazon can invest in new services, which attract more customers. A third virtuous circle is starting to whirl around Alexa, the firm’s voice-activated assistant: as developers build services for Alexa, it becomes more useful to consumers, giving developers reason to create yet more services.
在电子商务领域，亚马逊吸引的消费者越多，就有越多的零售商和制造商想到亚马逊销售商品。这样可以为亚马逊提供现金流，推出更多新服务，例如两小时送货上门，以及流媒体视频和音乐，从而又吸引更多的消费者。同样，如果有越来越多的客户使用AWS，亚马逊也可以投资更多新服务，吸引更多的客户。第三个良性循环始于亚马逊的语音助手Alexa。随着Alexa的功能越来越齐全，对消费者越来越实用，这样亚马逊就有理由继续开发新功能。
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So long as shareholders retain their faith in this model, Amazon’s heady valuation resembles a self-fulfilling prophecy. The company will be able to keep spending, and its spending will keep making it more powerful. Their faith is sustained by Amazon’s record. It has had its failures—its attempt to make a smartphone was a debacle. But the business is starting to crank out cash. Last year cashflow (before investment) was $16bn, more than quadruple the level five years ago.
只要股东保持对这一模式的信心，亚马逊的高价估值就像一个自我实现的预言。亚马逊将会一直保持投资，而投资将继续带来增长。亚马逊所创造的记录也一直体现着这种信念。然而，亚马逊过去也曾失败过，比如投身手机制造就遭遇大败。不过，这项业务现在也开始赚钱了。去年，亚马逊的现金流（投资前）为160亿美元，比五年前的水平高出四倍。
If Amazon’s approach to time-frames is unusual, so too is the sheer breadth of its activities. The company’s list of current and possible competitors, as described in its annual filings, includes logistics firms, search engines, social networks, food manufacturers and producers of “physical, digital and interactive media of all types”. A wingspan this large is more reminiscent of a conglomerate than a retailer, which makes Amazon’s share price seem even more bloated: stockmarkets typically apply a “conglomerate discount” to reflect their inefficiencies.
如果说亚马逊有着不同寻常的时间框架，那么其业务范围的广阔程度也是如此。亚马逊的年度财报文件中所述的，当前和可能的竞争对手名单包括物流公司、搜索引擎、社交网络、食品制造商和“各类实体，数字和互动媒体”的生产商。如此大的业务范围更能让人联想到一家巨大企业集团，而不是一零售商，这使得亚马逊的股价似乎变得更加夸张：股票市场通常会用“多元化折让”来反映其低效率。
Many of these services support Amazon’s own expansion and that of other companies. The obvious example is AWS, which powers Amazon’s operations as well as those of other firms. But Amazon also rents warehouse space to other sellers. It is building a $1.5bn air-freight hub in Kentucky. It is testing technology in stores to let consumers skip the cash register altogether, and experimenting with drone deliveries to the home. Such tools could presumably serve other customers, too. Some think that Amazon could become a new kind of utility: one that provides the infrastructure of commerce, from computing power to payments to logistics.
这其中有很多业务能够支持亚马逊本身和其他企业的扩张。一个明显的例子是AWS，可以为亚马逊的业务以及其他企业的业务提供支持。不过，亚马逊也向其他卖家出租仓库。它正在肯塔基州建造一个价值15亿美元的空运中心。亚马逊在商店里正在测试一项技术，让消费者不用在收银台结账；同时它还在试用无人机送货到家。这些技术也有可能提供给其他消费者。有人认为，亚马逊可以由此提供一项新业务：从云计算能力到支付到物流的一整套商业基础设施。
A giant cannot hide
无处不在的巨人
And here lies the real problem with the expectations surrounding Amazon. If it gets anywhere close to fulfilling them, it will attract the attention of regulators. For now, Amazon is unlikely to trigger antitrust action. It is not yet the biggest retailer in America, its most mature market. America’s antitrust enforcers look mainly at a firm’s effect on consumers and pricing. Seen through this lens, Amazon appears pristine. Consumers applaud it; it is the most well-regarded company in America, according to a Harris poll. (AWS is a boon to startups, too.)
这就是对亚马逊期望的真正问题所在。如果亚马逊马上就能够实现这种新模式，就会引起监管机构的关注。然而，目前，亚马逊还不太可能引发反垄断行动，在美国，这个亚马逊最成熟的市场，它还不是最大的零售商。美国的反垄断法主要看企业对消费者和价格的影响。从这个角度看，亚马逊目前才刚刚起步。消费者对其评价也很高。根据哈里斯民意调查，亚马逊是美国备受推崇的公司。（AWS也是这个初创公司的福音。）
But as it grows, so will concerns about its power. Even on standard antitrust grounds, that may pose a problem: if it makes as much money as investors hope, a rough calculation suggests its earnings could be worth the equivalent of 25% of the combined profits of listed Western retail and media firms. But regulators are also changing the way they think about technology. In Europe, Google stands accused of using its clout as a search engine to extend its power to adjacent businesses. The comparative immunity from legal liability of digital platforms—for the posting of inflammatory content on Facebook, say, or the vetting of drivers on Uber—is being chipped away.
但是，随着企业规模增长，它也将受到关注。即使在标准的反垄断立场上，也可能会有一个问题：如果亚马逊的利润真的像投资者所期望的那样多，那么粗略计算，其盈利可能相当于西方所有上市的零售和媒体公司利润总和的25％。不过，监管机构也在改变他们对技术的看法。在欧洲，Google被指控利用其作为搜索引擎的影响力来扩展其相邻业务。在Facebook上发布煽动性内容，或者对Uber的司机进行审查，类似这样数字平台应负的法律责任正越来越受到重视。
Amazon’s business model will also encourage regulators to think differently. Investors value Amazon’s growth over profits; that makes predatory pricing more tempting. In future, firms could increasingly depend on tools provided by their biggest rival. If Amazon does become a utility for commerce, the calls will grow for it to be regulated as one. Shareholders are right to believe in Amazon’s potential. But success will bring it into conflict with an even stronger beast: government.
亚马逊的商业模式也将促使监管机构从不同的角度考虑问题。相比利润，亚马逊的投资者更为重视企业增长，这使得掠夺性定价更具吸引力。未来，企业可能越来越依赖其最大的竞争对手——亚马逊所提供的服务。如果亚马逊确实可以提供商业服务，那么对其进行统一监管的呼声也会越来越高。股东的确可以相信亚马逊的潜力，不过，亚马逊的成功会使它与更强大的一方相冲突，那就是政府。
审校：贾邵然
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人