双语阅读｜Uber未来CEO的行动计划
IT IS said that Travis Kalanick, who resigned as Uber’s boss last month, has been reading Shakespeare’s “Henry V”. Prince Hal’s transformation, from wastrel prince to sober monarch, is doubtless one he would like to emulate. But as a guide to the ride-hailing firm’s financial dilemma, “Macbeth” is the best play. This line especially resonates: “I am in blood stepp’d in so far that, should I wade no more, returning were as tedious as go o’er.”
据说，上月辞职的Uber总裁拉维斯·卡兰尼克（Travis Kalanick）一直在读莎士比亚的《亨利五世》。其中哈尔从浪荡王子到清醒君主的转型无疑是他最想要效仿的。但是，面对Uber现在遭遇的财政困顿，《麦克白》才是他最好的借鉴。下面这句台词尤其引起共鸣：“我已经两足深陷于血泊之中，要是不再涉血前进，那么回头的路也是同样使人厌倦的。”
Uber has bled money for years in an attempt to become the absolute ruler of its industry. Once Mr Kalanick’s replacement is found, voices will whisper that the firm, like Macbeth himself, is in too deep to alter course. But the new boss must change Uber from a company that sacrifices anything for its ambitions, to one which has a realistic valuation and uses resources efficiently.
Uber近些年为了成为网约车行业的绝对统治者，不惜大肆烧钱。一旦Uber寻到接棒卡兰尼克总裁之位的人选，人们或许会开始低声议论，这家公司已如同麦克白本人一样，深陷泥潭，无力回天。新总裁必须有能力改变Uber肆意牺牲一切为代价来达成其成为行业霸主的宏伟野心，使之成为一个具有现实估值，并有效利用资源的企业。
Its product is elegantly simple. Uber makes a market between drivers and passengers and takes a cut of about a fifth of the fare. The more people use its service, the better it functions, with lower waiting periods for passengers, and better use of drivers’ time. Some 55m people in 574 cities use it every month. Underlying sales were $4bn in 2016, over double what they were the year before (all figures exclude Uber’s Chinese arm, which it sold to a local rival, Didi Chuxing, last year). Uber’s main trouble is high expectations. Its supporters think it will become the next Alphabet or Facebook. At its last funding round in 2016 (it is private), investors valued it at a whopping $68bn.
Uber的产品机制十分简单：它在司机和乘客之间寻求市场，从中抽取车费的五分之一作为收入。因此，使用的人越多，它的作用发挥得越好，乘客的等待时间也就越少，司机的时间也能得到更好地利用。目前，全世界574个城市中，每月约有5500万人使用Uber。2016年，Uber的销售额为40亿美元，较前一年同期增长了一倍（所有上述数据均不包括去年出售给中国竞争对手滴滴出行所带来的收入）。Uber的主要问题是期望值太高，投资者认为它或将成为下一个Alphabet或Facebook，在2016年的最后一轮（非公开）融资中，投资者对其估值高达680亿美元。
But the next boss will have to deal with an income statement that is scarier than the Thane of Cawdor. Underlying pre-tax losses were $3bn-3.5bn last year and about $800m in the most recent quarter. Some $1bn-2bn of last year’s red ink was because of subsidies that Uber paid to drivers and passengers to draw them to its platform. At least another $1bn went on overheads and on developing driverless cars; money is also being splashed on a new food-delivery venture and a plan to build flying cars.
但是，Uber新CEO不得不处理比考特勋爵还要恐怖的利润表。去年，Uber的基本税前亏损大约为30亿-35亿美元，而最新一季度的亏损达8亿美元。去年约有10亿至20亿美元的赤字源自为吸引司机和乘客使用其平台而支付的高额补贴。另外，至少还有10亿美元用于企业日常开销和开发无人驾驶汽车;此外，送餐行业也正在发展当中，Uber还计划建造飞行汽车。
To put its 2016 loss in perspective, that number was larger than the cumulative loss made by Silicon Valley’s least profit-conscious big company—Amazon—in 1995-2002. Measured by sales, Uber is the world’s 1,158th-biggest firm. Judged by cash losses, it ranks in the top 20. It is now eight years old, but still probably years away from being stable enough to make an initial public offering of shares. In contrast, Amazon went public at the age of three, Alphabet at six and Facebook at eight.
客观地来看Uber2016年的亏损，这一数字甚至比1995年至2002年间硅谷最不盈利的企业亚马逊累计损失还要多。以销售收入衡量，Uber在全球排名第1158位；从现金损失来看，它排在第20名。Uber成立八年，它可能仍需要几年才能足够稳定才能上市。相比之下，亚马逊三年就上市，Alphabet和Facebook分别在创立六年和八年时上市。
Investors rationalise its valuation by assuming that in the long run it will be highly profitable, with a dominant share of a large market. In 2014 Bill Gurley, a well-known tech investor who was then an Uber director, estimated that the pool of consumer spending that it could try and capture might be over $1trn, with ride-hailing and ride-sharing replacing car ownership. Today many Silicon Valley types think that estimate is too conservative.
投资者认为从长远来看，Uber将在大市场中占据主导地位，可获得高利润收入，从而将其估值合理化。2014年，当时还是Uber董事、技术总监的比尔·古利（Bill Gurley）估计， 当打车、共享汽车的概念取代汽车所有权传统观念，待Uber打开市场后，潜在的消费收入可能超过1万亿美元。可是如今，许多硅谷人士认为这个估值仍过于保守。
But a discounted cashflow model gives a sense of the leap of faith that Uber’s valuation requires. After adjusting for its net cash of $5bn and for its stake in Didi, worth $6bn, you have to believe that its sales will increase tenfold by 2026. Operating margins would have to rise to 25%, from about -80% today.
但是，一个现金流贴现模型赋予了Uber估值所需要的天降神迹之感。在将其现金净额调整为50亿美元，与滴滴合并后的股权价值达到了60亿美元后，必须相信Uber在2026年的销售额会较现在增长10倍。经营利润率也会从今天的负80％上升至25％。
That is a huge stretch. Admittedly, Amazon and Alphabet, two of history’s most successful firms, both grew their sales at least that quickly in the decade after they reached Uber’s level, and Facebook is likely to as well. But over the same periods these firms’ operating margins show an total average rise of only one percentage point. Put simply, Uber finds it desperately hard to make money. It is not clear that it breaks even reliably across the group of cities where it has been active for longest.
这将是一个巨大的跨越。诚然，亚马逊和Alphabet是历史上最成功的两家企业，在达到Uber资产水平的十年之后，至少其销售额能够快速增长，Facebook也是如此。但是，在同一时期，这些企业的经营利润率总体平均只上升了一个百分点。简单来说，对Uber来说，盈利太难。不清楚为什么它在长期以来活跃的城市群中也只是收支平衡。
So the new chief executive will have to deliver a bleak message; that ride-hailing is locked in a vicious circle. Low prices and high subsidies lead to losses, so firms must raise capital continually, requiring them to exhibit rising valuations. To justify these they must frequently enter new cities and dream up new products. Even more speculative capital is then drawn in by the paper gains seemingly on offer. In the past year, ten of Uber’s competitors, such as Lyft in America and Grab in South-East Asia, have together raised or are raising, roughly $11bn. That will be used to finance still more price wars to win market share.
因此，新任CEO必须传达出这样一个惨淡的消息：Uber深陷恶性循环之中。低价格和高补贴只能导致亏损，企业必须不断筹集资金，借此来提高企业估值。为了证明其价值，他们必须不断进驻新城市，拓展市场，推出新产品。然后，更多的投机资本被看似潜在的未实现收益所吸引过来。在过去的一年中，Uber的10个竞争对手，如美国的Lyft和东南亚的Grab，共筹集或还在持续筹集了大约110亿美元。这将帮助他们进行更多的价格战来赢得市场份额。
Double, double toil and trouble
双倍，双倍困难和麻烦
Uber is on course to use up its existing cash and credit lines in three years. Its next boss must break the cycle before then by cutting subsidies and talking down its valuation. It could lose market share and may need to exit scores of cities. On July 13th it said that it will merge its operations in Russia with a competitor. Similar deals need to follow. Although Uber should continue to invest in driverless cars, some of its more experimental “moon shot” projects will probably be for the chop. Its investors, including Goldman Sachs, Saudi Arabia’s government and Jay-Z, a rapper, could face paper losses. Staff paid in stock will be furious.
未来三年内，Uber现有的资金和信贷额度就会使用殆尽。新位CEO必须通过削减补贴和用企业估值来取长补短，打破恶性循环，尽管这样可能会失去市场份额，可能需要退出几十个城市。 7月13日，Uber表示将与俄罗斯竞争对手合并。类似的合并交易，Uber需要多进行几次。虽然Uber应该继续投资无人驾驶汽车，但一些纯粹实验性的“登月”项目可能会被砍掉了。包括高盛，沙特阿拉伯政府和Jay-Z（说唱歌手）在内的投资者可能会面临损失。以持股形式投资的员工也将会愤怒不已。
Yet over time the aim should be a firm with a lower market share of a more stable industry. Successful, dominant firms, such as Google and AT&T, don’t seek absolute monopolies by killing off weaker rivals. They allow them enough space to plod on. That lowers the risk of antitrust problems and deters new entrants. By signalling that Uber’s valuation is too high its new boss would knock valuations across the ride-hailing industry and slow the flood of speculative capital—in the end, a good thing.
然而，随着时间的推移，Uber的目标应该是一个更加稳定，行业市场份额经现在更少的公司。成功的优势企业，如谷歌和AT＆T，他们不会通过打败较弱的竞争对手来寻求绝对的垄断。他们允许小企业有足够的空间艰难行进，这也降低了反垄断问题的风险，吓退想要进军该行业的新公司。Uber新任CEO必须在整个行业中敲醒估值的警钟，表明Uber现有估值过高，来减慢投机性资金的涌入——最后会证明这是对的。
Once the losses abate, the priority should be to create a more “capital light” model. Perhaps Uber could license its brand and technology to local partners in some markets. It could concentrate subsidies on customers who sign up to long-term contracts. The biggest impediment may be Mr Kalanick. With allies, he still controls a significant share, probably a majority, of the company’s voting rights. Anyone taking on tech’s toughest job must have the inner steel to confront him. They should remember another quote from the bard; “I must be cruel only to be kind.”
一旦亏损减少，Uber优先考虑的应是创造一个更加“轻资本”（capital light）模式。或许Uber可以在某些市场向当地合作伙伴许可其品牌和技术；可以将补贴集中在那些签订长期合同的客户身上。最大的阻碍可能是创始人卡拉尼克，现在他仍然控制着公司多数的投票份额。任何担任技术总监的人都必须有足够的胆量去对抗他。他们应该记住吟游诗人的一句名言：“为了要行善，我必须狠毒。”
编译：贾邵然
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人