双语阅读｜电商时代的物流业需要重组
YANG MING IS standing beside his red electric tricycle in a courtyard in Beijing. A former factory worker from an industrial town outside the capital, he and dozens of other men are awaiting the arrival of a lorry. As it pulls in from JD’s warehouse, the men form an assembly line to unload boxes. They reload the packages to their tricycles and are off, weaving through the traffic. JD has about 400 such delivery stations in Beijing alone. Across the country, 2.5m couriers are at the ready to shuttle packages to their final destinations. When he first started several years ago Mr Yang made about 80 deliveries a day. Now the number is closer to 130 and still rising.
在北京的一个院子里，杨明站在他的红色电动三轮车旁边。他曾是自北京外边的一工业小镇上的工厂工人，正与其他几十名工人正在等待物流卡车。当卡车离开京东的仓库到达后，他们排队接力卸货。他们把包裹搬到三轮车上，开出配送站，穿梭于车流之中。仅在北京一地，京东就有大约400家这样的配送站。在全国范围内，有250万快递员时刻准备把包裹送到目的地。几年前，杨明刚开始做快递 员的时候，每天大约要送80个快递，而现在每天的快递接近130个，并且还在增多。
To a consumer, e-commerce’s rapid delivery seems like magic: a few clicks, and within an hour or two a package can land on your doorstep. Behind this, however, lies an enormous amount of investment, engineering and hard work as firms face ever-rising expectations of fast, cheap delivery. Delivery networks are likely to be strained as the volume of parcels grows. That is spurring new experiments in logistics, some mundane (picking up parcels in stores) and some apparently mad (Amazon patents for underwater warehouses).
对于消费者而言，电商的快速送货似乎很神奇：只要鼠标点几下，在一两个小时内，包裹就可以送达家门口。不过，这种景象背后是各家企业面临快速廉价的快递来的发展预期，投入了大量的资金、技术和辛苦的劳作。随着包裹量的增加，运输网点可能会紧张。 这就刺激了物流方面需要作出新尝试，如一些通常的做法（在小店里取包裹）以及一些疯狂做法（亚马逊申请水下仓库的专利）。
In emerging markets, e-commerce has relied on an army of delivery men with relatively low wages, such as Mr Yang. In America, points out Christian Wetherbee of Citi, a bank, the United States Postal Service has subsidised the rise of e-commerce by systematically underpricing the cost of parcel deliveries. Amazon has been a main beneficiary, sorting goods by zip code in big warehouses, then delivering them to post offices to handle the last mile of delivery.
在新兴的市场中，电商依靠着许多像杨明这样的廉价快递员队伍。美国花旗银行分析师克里斯蒂安·华乐毕（Christian Wetherbee）指出，美国邮政总局通过系统地降低快递运输服务成本的方式，并以此作为一种补贴，鼓励电商行业的发展。亚马逊已成为一个主要受益者，在大仓库里以邮编分选货物，再把货物运送到各个邮局，由邮局来解决最后一公里的运送问题。
Both these things look set to change. In America, the postal service owes $34bn in defaulted worker benefits. Mail volumes are declining, which means fewer deliveries per stop, and thus even lower efficiency and more financial duress. If the post office introduces reforms, as some politicians are now asking, parcel delivery will become more costly. Labour costs are rising, too. That is no surprise in Japan, where the broader labour market is tight. But even in China, a shortage may loom: swelling parcel volumes will require 4m express delivery staff by 2020, according to Goldman Sachs. In September, BEST Inc, a logistics firm backed by Alibaba, had a disappointing initial public offering in New York, in part because investors were anxious about labour costs. Pressures on e-commerce companies to deliver cheaply will only rise, yet customers are thinly spread, making it less efficient to deliver to them than to offices or shops.
这两种情况似乎都将改变。在美国，邮政系统拖欠员工340亿美元的费用。邮件数量也呈下降趋势，意味着每个邮局快递员人数会减少，甚至会因此造成效率更低，财政困境更恶劣。正如一些政治人物正在质问的问题：如果邮政系统实施改革，快递运输成本会更高。劳动力成本也将上升。在日本，这并不意外：日本的广义劳动力市场处于劳动人口紧张状态。不过，高盛表示，中国将显现出劳动力短缺问题：到2020年，随着包裹数量渐增，快递行业将需要400万名快递员。今年九月，阿里巴巴投资的物流企业百世达有限公司在纽约上市，表现令人失望。一个原因是投资者担心劳动力成本的问题。电商企业低成本快递包裹的压力只会越来越大，但是，消费者分散情况使得送货效率要比送到办公室和商店的要低。
Another challenge is sorting out how to deliver packages across international borders. DHL, which with FedEx and UPS forms a triumvirate of global parcel firms, estimates that 15% of all e-commerce sales already move from one country to another. By 2020 it expects that share to exceed 20% as customers seek lower prices and a broader selection. The big carriers are keen to capture that business. In 2014 FedEx bought a company called Bongo that specialises in cross-border deliveries, to help customers with duties and protect them from fraud.
另一种困难是解决跨境包裹运送。与联邦快递和联合包裹服务共同组成全球快递行业三大巨头的敦豪速递估计，全球范围内的电商交易量中，有15%是跨境交易。它预计，到2020年，随着消费者追求低价的商品和更广泛的选择，这个占比会增至20%。三大巨头都渴望从中获取商机。2014年，联邦公司兼并了专营跨境运输的Bango。这家公司能帮助消费者报关和辨别欺诈行为。
E-commerce firms are testing innovations that might help. Cainiao, the logistics network in which Alibaba now owns a majority stake, has built bonded warehouses where foreign manufacturers can store goods, duty-free, within China’s borders, ready to be shipped to consumers. Alibaba wants to build free-trade zones around the world to help small businesses with customs clearance, warehousing and financing.
电商企业正在做一些有益的创新测试。阿里控股的物流企业菜鸟建立了保税仓库，在境内存放将国外生产商货物，免税，随时送到消费者手里。阿里巴巴打算在世界各地建立一个自由贸易区，以帮助小企业解决通关、入仓和融资的问题。
Automation may lower costs. In one of JD’s huge warehouses outside Shanghai, men still operate forklifts, but by the end of the year robots will take over. Amazon’s robots already bring packages to warehouse staff. The next frontier of warehouse automation is for robots to pick individual items and put them in bags or boxes. More than 90% of such work is still done by hand. Amazon holds a regular robotics contest for automating the process. Robotic pickers may be more broadly deployed as technology becomes cheaper and labour more expensive.
自动化的发展会降低人工成本。在上海郊外的一家京东大型仓库里，铲车还是由人工操作，但到今年年底将会由机器人来操作。亚马逊的机器人已能将包裹发给仓库管理员手中。自动化仓库接下来的发展是机器人挑选物品，并放进袋子里或包装盒里。现在这类工作有90%是人工操作的。亚马逊还经常举办了有关自动化流程的机器人比赛。在科技成本变得廉价，劳动力成本变得更高的情况下，机器人取件或将得到广泛使用。
Lowering delivery costs is tricky. What has been achieved so far does help, though it can seem unexciting. With the aid of machine learning, demand is predicted on the basis of past shopping patterns, weather and other inputs; that information is then used to decide which goods should be stored where. Amazon has opened small warehouses where it keeps popular products, so they can be dispatched quickly to impatient shoppers. Companies are also trying to concentrate deliveries by sending goods to central pickup points rather than to customers’ homes.
降低快递成本是哄人的小把戏。到目前为止，所取得的成果有一定的效果，却并不太令人满意。在机器学习的协助下，根据过往消费模式、天气以及其他信息的基础上，可以提前预测需求；然后这种预测信息可用来决定商品存放的地点。亚马逊建立了许多小仓库来存放热销产品，让快递员能迅速将这些热销产品送到那些没有耐心的消费者手里。很多企业正在尝试集中将货送到配送中心的方式来集中配送，而不是直接送货到消费者家中。
Retailers have long used “click and collect” models, though the ease of collecting online orders varies greatly from one shop to another. Now some stores are becoming hubs for online orders from third parties. From November FedEx will have package-pickup counters in about 8,000 Walgreens pharmacies across America. In Japan, both Rakuten, Japan’s leading e-commerce firm, and Amazon deliver packages to convenience stores.
许多零售商长期以来一直使用“点击和配货”的方式，不过，在线订单整理的难易度因电商而异。现在一些商店正成为第三方的在线订单枢纽。从今年11月开始，联邦快递将在全美国大约8000家沃尔格林药店设置包裹柜台。在日本，日本电商务龙头企业乐天以及亚马逊都把货物配送到便利店。
Look, no hands
看，机械化时代来了。
The most enticing ideas in logistics involve unmanned delivery. Driverless delivery trucks may one day help, and Amazon has patents for flying warehouses and drone-charging stations atop church steeples. But all such new methods have drawn scepticism. Many drones carry only one parcel, then must recharge. Asked about technological changes that might bring down costs, FedEx’s Mr Smith says, “We don’t see them on the horizon for the last-mile delivery at present.”
物流业中最吸引人的想法是无人送货。无人驾驶送货车有朝一日可能会实现。亚马逊申请了一项有关空中仓库和送货无人机基地的专利。但所有这些新想法都引发质疑。许多无人机只能配送一个包裹，然后必须充电。在询问有关科技变化是否会降低成本的情况时，联邦快递的史密斯说：“目前，这一想法还不能够实现。”
Once again, things are moving faster in China. Cainiao has developed a waist-high robot called Little G to undertake the final leg of delivery. JD is testing something similar in universities. Both companies expect to dispatch autonomous trucks within the next three years. Wan Lin, president of Cainiao, doubts the economics of drone delivery, but JD is forging ahead. In four Chinese provinces, drones fly on fixed routes to predetermined landing spots. A worker then carries the parcels for the last stretch of the journey. JD plans to expand to more provinces and offer more services. One of the drones being tested can carry up to a tonne.
同样，中国的情况变化得更为快。菜鸟开发出一个齐腰高度的机器人小G，专门解决快递最后一公里问题。京东正打算在大学里测试类似的机器人。这两家公司都希望在未来三年内能推出自动驾驶汽车。菜鸟总裁万霖对无人机配送的经济性表示怀疑，但京东努力推动。在中国的四个省份，无人驾驶飞机通过固定路线飞往预定的着陆点。 然后，一名工人在最后一段运送过程中配送包裹。京东计划扩大到更多省份，提供更多服务。一个进行测试的无人机能运载量一吨的物品。
As this experimentation continues, once again the largest players are the most likely to win. They have the cash to pour into new technologies and the volume of sales to reap the benefits from big investments. If America’s postal service were to raise its charges, Mr Wetherbee reckons, Amazon might, perversely, be the one to gain. Driven by higher charges, independent sellers that once used the postal service might turn to Amazon to handle their distribution. It has more bargaining power with logistics firms like FedEx and UPS and has recently expanded its network of delivery partners, using both regional firms and crowdsourced couriers. So Amazon would become even mightier.
随着这种试验活动继续下去，行业最强的企业最有可能胜出。他们有足够的现金投入新技术，销量的增长会从大的投资入受益。华乐毕认为，如果美国的邮政系统服务增加收费的话，亚马逊可能会成为获利的一方。由于收费较高，曾经使用邮政服务的独立卖家可能会求助于亚马逊来处理销售渠道。亚马逊对联邦快递和联邦包裹有限公司等物流企业具有更高的议价能力，而它最近通过区域性企业和众包快递扩大了其关货合作伙伴的分布点。因此，亚马逊会变得更强大。
编译：刘莉华
审校：党利娜
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人