双语阅读｜经济危机重灾区变投资香饽饽
NAWAZ SHARIF is the ex-prime minister of Pakistan again. His third stint in the job ended on July 28th after the Supreme Court disqualified him from office. Yet he could justifiably claim that he left Pakistan’s economy in a better state than he found it. When Pakistan last went to the polls, GDP had been growing at around 3%, a dismal rate for a poor country with a burgeoning population. Inflation was above 10%. The budget deficit had ballooned. A crisis loomed. Four years on, inflation is in the low single digits. The budget deficit has shrunk to a little above 4% of GDP. The GDP growth rate is closing in on 6%. Investors too have taken notice. Since 2012, Pakistan’s stockmarket capitalisation has doubled in dollar terms (see chart).
纳瓦兹·谢里夫（Nawaz Sharif）再一次成为巴基斯坦前总理。在巴基斯坦最高法院罢免他的职务之后，他的第三次总理任期终于7月28日。然而，他有理由宣称，在他手里，巴基斯坦的经济变得更好。巴基斯坦上一次投票选举时，国内生产总值增幅一直在3%左右。这个数字对于一个人口迅速增长的贫穷国家来说，相当令人沮丧。通货膨胀率超过10%。预算赤字急剧膨胀。四年过去了，通货膨胀率跌到个位数；预算赤字大幅缩小，只略高于GDP的4%。国内生产总值的增长率接近6%。投资者也心知肚明。自2012年以来，巴基斯坦股市市值按美国计算翻了一番(见图表)。
Pakistan is not Sweden. It remains at the wrong end of global rankings of security, corruption and human development. At the last count, almost 30% of the population were living in poverty. Yet a crisis-prone economy has at least been put on a steadier footing. In the process, Pakistan has become something of an investment darling. It is thus a template for a particular kind of turnaround, one that reflects an upgrade in macroeconomic policy.
巴基斯坦不是瑞典。在全球安全、腐败和人类发展排名中，它位于末尾。最近一项统计表明，巴基斯坦有近30%的人口生活在贫困之中。然而，一个容易遭受危机的经济体至少站稳了脚跟。在这个发展过程中，巴基斯坦成为了投资的香饽饽。因此，它是一种典型的扭转局面的模板，反映了宏观经济政策的升级。
Bounce-back stories of this kind are quite rare, because the reforms needed are initially painful. They are typically found in what are called “frontier markets”, which lie beyond even emerging markets at the riskiest edge of the investment universe. Not all such markets will follow the path taken by Pakistan. A more apt description for one that has come back from the near-dead to a tolerable life might be “phoenix economy”.
这种经济状况逆转的情况相当罕见，因为所需做出的改革举措在一开始都是痛苦的。它们通常存在于所谓的“前沿市场”，甚至存在于投资领域风险最高的新兴市场之外。并不是所有的市场都能跟随巴基斯坦的方式。从几近死亡到能活过来，一个更恰当的描述可能是“经济涅槃”。
Which places fit the bill? The spectrum runs from disaster zones, such as Zimbabwe (or even Venezuela), which might one day bounce back; through early-stage recovery stories that may yet falter, such as Argentina, Egypt and perhaps Nigeria; to graduates, such as Pakistan or the Philippines, which has been “flavour of the month for about ten years” in the words of one frontier investor. Not much unites such economies beyond a history of bad management. But there are some common themes. Politics are usually unstable. The army lours over Pakistan, Egypt and Nigeria, for instance. And phoenixes tend to go through the same three phases: a crisis, or “ashes” stage, as trouble comes to a head and capital flees the country; a “response” stage, where a politician grasps the reform nettle, often with IMF support; and a third “rebirth” stage, as capital is lured back by the prospect of economic recovery.
有哪些地区符合这种情况呢?这个范围包括在一些经济重灾区，如津巴布韦(甚至委内瑞拉)，能实现起死回生；经历了初期可能蹒跚而行的经济复苏，如阿根廷、埃及和尼日利亚等国，再到成功突围，如巴基斯坦或菲律宾，如一位前沿投资者的话来说是“度日如年”来形容。这些经济体在管理不善方面的历史各不相同。但也有一些共通之处：政治不稳定，如巴基斯坦、埃及和尼日利亚等国笼罩在战争阴影之下。“涅槃”时期也会经历同样的三个阶段：第一，危机或“灰烬”阶段，如某国家领导人遇到麻烦，着资本逃离；第二，“反应”阶段，政治家在国际货币基金组织(IMF)的支持下，掌握了改革难点之处；第三，“重生”阶段，经济复苏前景看好，资金回流。
Start with the ashes. Circumstances will differ from country to country but the general pattern is quite similar. The economy hits a financial constraint: sometimes it is the budget deficit; more often the trade deficit. Investors become loth to offer financing. Interest rates shoot up. The flow of foreign capital dries up or—worse—capital begins to flee. The currency is propped up by intervention: foreign-exchange reserves are run down to sustain the illusion that it is worth more than it really is. Reserves grow thin. Hard currency is rationed, creating shortages of essential imports. The economy falters.
从“灰烬”开始，各国国情不同，总体局势大致相似：经济体的财政举步维艰——时常预算赤字;更常见的是贸易逆差。投资者不愿提供融资，从而导致利率飙升。外国资本流入趋于干涸，甚至更糟，出现资本逃离情况。本国货币通过国家干预获得支撑：外汇储备的减少，无法维持一种高价值假象。外汇储备减少，硬通货是定量配给，造成主要进口物品短缺，最终导致经济运转失灵。
The triggers for crisis vary. A weak spot in Pakistan, for instance, was its reliance on oil imports to fuel much of its electricity supply. When the price of crude rose above $100 a barrel in 2013, the cost of the government’s fuel subsidies blew out its budget deficit. In Egypt the constraint was its current-account deficit, which widened from 0.8% of GDP in 2014 to 5.6% by 2016. The descent in the oil price hit fees from the Suez canal and crimped the value of remittances from oil-rich neighbours. Security fears led to a drop in revenue from tourism.
危机的诱发因素不尽相同。例如，巴基斯坦的一个薄弱之处大部分电力供应提供进口石油提供的燃料。2013年，当原油价格升至每桶100美元以上时，政府燃油补贴的费用就让预算赤字暴涨。在埃及，制约经济增长的是常账户赤字，从2014年占GDP的0.8%扩大到2016年的5.6%。油价下跌致使苏伊士运河的收入减少，也影响了石油资源丰富的邻国的汇款额。对安全的担忧则使得旅游业收入下滑。
The second stage of a turnaround sees the realisation that orthodox exchange-rate, monetary and fiscal policies are required. This usually means allowing the currency to fall, cutting the budget deficit by trimming wasteful subsidies, and using monetary policy to control inflation rather than to finance the government.
经济好转的第二阶段是实现了必要的正常汇率、货币政策和财政政策。这通常意味着允许货币贬值，削减不必要补贴来减少预算赤字，并通过货币政策来控制通货膨胀，而不是向政府提供资金。
It is not enough for senior technocrats to argue for such changes. The head of government must back the reforms. Andrew Brudenell, of Ashmore, a fund manager, says that once an example is set from the top, the effect trickles down to other institutions. A big plus is a high-profile champion for policy changes, such as Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s president, who was elected on a platform of economic reform. Often the IMF will be brought in to lend hard-currency reserves and policy advice. Egypt began a three-year IMF programme last November. Pakistan signed up to its most recent one in September 2013.
要让高级技术官僚来支持这些变化，这些远远不够。政府领导人必须支持这些改革措施。安石投资（Ashmore）的基金经理Andrew Brudenell称，一旦上层有一个示范，就会影响到下面的其他机构。一个额外的支持就是能有个备受瞩目的政策改革倡导者，比如阿根廷总统Mauricio Macri，因倡导经济改革而当选。国际货币基金组织经常会参与，提供硬通货储备以及政策建议。去年11月，埃及开始了为期3年的IMF计划。巴基斯坦则在2013年9月签署了一项协议。
That is often the cue for the rebirth, during which capital flight goes into reverse. Attracting capital back is “somewhere on the scale between pretty important and absolutely crucial”, says Paul McNamara, of GAM, a fund-management firm. It takes a while to shrink a big current-account deficit, even with a cheaper currency. Capital inflows are thus needed both to finance the residual deficit and to rebuild foreign-exchange reserves.
这通常是经济重生的预兆，而在此期间资本会回流。基金管理公司GAM的保罗·麦克纳马拉（Paul McNamara）表示，吸引资金回流是“相当重要和绝对关键的”。即拥有对更便宜的货币，也需要一段时间来减少经常账户赤字。因此，资本流入既需要为剩余赤字提供资金，也要用来重建外汇储备。
The first people to tempt back are those citizens who shifted money offshore ahead of the crisis. The lure of high interest rates (needed to curb inflation) and the diminished currency risk that follows a big devaluation will tempt others, too. For instance, foreign investors now hold almost a quarter of Egypt’s treasury bills, according to JPMorgan Chase. Tax amnesties are another way to tempt money back. Argentina raised $117bn in 2016-17 in that way.
首先吸引来的是那些在危机前将资金转移到海外的国民。高利率的诱惑(用于抑制通货膨胀)，以及货币贬值带来的货币贬值风险，也会吸引其他的人。例如，摩根大通（JPMorgan Chase）的数据显示，目前外国投资者持有埃及近四分之一的国债。税收赦免是另一种吸引资金的方式。阿根廷在2016-2017年以这种方式筹集了1170亿美元。
The hope is that within, say, two years of the crisis, inflation has peaked, the economy is growing at a decent rate and the current-account deficit is manageable. That then provides a platform for more reform and a period of crisis-free economic growth. But lots can go wrong.
如果在危机爆发后的两年里，通货膨胀达到顶峰，经济增长速度良好，经常账户赤字变得可控，这是有希望的。这就为更多的改革提供了一个平台，同时也为经济增长提供了时间。但其中有很多不可控因素。
A danger is that hardship and social unrest derail the reform process. Cuts to subsidies on top of big devaluations in both Argentina and Egypt have pushed up inflation rates to 22% and 31% respectively. In Egypt food-price inflation is close to 40% (see chart). Even so, in both places the economy is starting to pick up steam. Optimists hope Nigeria is in the very early stages of another turnaround, but there have already been a few false dawns. Nigeria bounced back impressively from a slump in the price of oil, its principal export, in 2009. Its reform champion was Lamido Sanusi, the central-bank governor, who won plaudits for taming inflation and cleaning up the banks. The stockmarket boomed. But the reforms dried up. Mr Sanusi was sacked. By 2016, Nigeria’s economy was deep in trouble again.
其中一个危险就是经济困难和社会动荡阻碍了改革进程。阿根廷和埃及在货币贬值最大的时间点削减政府补贴的政策，把通货膨胀率推高至22%和31%。在埃及，食品价格通胀率接近40%(见图表)。即便如此，在这两个地区，经济都开始回暖。乐观人士预期尼日利亚正处于另一个转机的早期阶段，但出现了一些虚假的曙光。2009年，尼日利亚经济在主要出口商品石油的价格暴跌之后大幅反弹。它的改革领导人是央行行长拉米多•萨努西(Lamido Sanusi)，因改善通货膨胀和整顿银行而饱受赞誉。该 国股市也蓬勃发展，但是改革措施后继无力。萨努西下台。在2016年，尼日利亚的经济再次陷入困境。
There are risks even for graduates of the phoenix-economy school. Once a modicum of stability returns, the impetus for further reform often fades. Take Pakistan. Since it reached the end of its IMF programme last year, there has been a slackening of fiscal and monetary discipline and a re-emergence of old problems in its power companies. The prospects for faster growth now rest on Chinese investment in a 3,000km (1,875-mile) China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, or CPEC. But that also puts Pakistan in a familiar spot: a reliance on foreign capital, which can turn out to be fickle and expensive. Trouble would take a while to surface. By then, investors may be talking about the big turnaround in Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
对于“经济涅槃”经济体来说，风险仍然存在。一旦经济有此许的稳定，更进一步改革的动力往往就消退了。以巴基斯坦为例，自去年IMF计划结束以来，财政和货币政策已有所减弱，电力企业的老问题再次出现。目前的经济增长前景有赖于中国对3000公里中巴经济走廊(CPEC)的投资。但这也让巴基斯坦陷入了一个熟悉的境地：对外国资本的依赖，这可能是变化无常且代价高昂。麻烦可能需要一段时间才能浮出水面。到那时，投资者可能在谈论的是津巴布韦或委内瑞拉的经济形势转好。
编译：李颖
审校：姚芊芊
编辑：翻吧君
来源：经济学人