双语阅读｜电子商务扬帆起航
IN WAREHOUSES AROUND the globe, they wait: toys, phones, dresses, televisions, blankets, trainers, laptops and much more. In China, online retailers are gearing up for “Singles Day”, November 11th, the world’s busiest shopping day. Last year Alibaba, much the biggest of the country’s e-commerce giants, rang up sales of $18bn on that occasion, the most ever spent in one day anywhere on Earth. Much of the rest of the world is preparing for the Christmas rush. Present-hunters used to wear themselves out tramping around crowded shops. Now, increasingly, they order from the comfort of their homes or offices.
全世界的仓库里都囤满了等待售出的商品：玩具，手机，服饰，电视，毛毯，运动鞋，掌上电脑......在中国，网上零售商们正在为全球最繁忙的购物日——双十一“光棍节”做准备。去年双十一，中国电商巨头阿里巴巴销售额达180亿美元，成为世界零售史上的奇迹。世界其他地区大多在为圣诞购物潮准备。过去，为了买到心仪之物，人们往往要在拥挤不堪的商店里找，直到精疲力尽，如今，他们越来越多地在宽敞舒适的家或办公室里下单。
Over the past decade global e-commerce has been expanding at an average rate of 20% a year as bricks-and-mortar shops have languished. Yet its share of total retail trade last year, at 8.5% worldwide, was still modest. Even in South Korea, the country with the highest percentage of retail sales online, it amounted to only 18%, according to Euromonitor, a research firm. In America, the w 42 35481 42 14988 0 0 1747 0 0:00:20 0:00:08 0:00:12 2640 42 35481 42 14988 0 0 1660 0 0:00:21 0:00:09 0:00:12 2999 42 35481 42 14988 0 0 1510 0 0:00:23 0:00:09 0:00:14 2920 42 35481 42 14988 0 0 1371 0 0:00:25 0:00:10 0:00:15 3243orld’s biggest consumer market, it made up about 10% of the total. And in many middle-income countries its share was much lower: less than 5% in India and Brazil, for instance.
过去十年里，全球电商年均增速达到20%，实体店却在节节败退。然而，2016年，电子商务只占全球零售业市场的8.5%，仍然不温不火。欧洲商情市场调研公司（Euromonitor）数据显示，就连在网上零售额占比最高的韩国，比例也只达到18%。美国作为世界最大的消费市场，电商仅占全国市场的10%。在很多中等收入水平的国家，这个比率就更低了，在印度和巴西甚至不足5%。
inRead invented by Teads
行业巨头应运而生
But there is every reason to think it will get much bigger. In rich countries millennials who grew up buying goods online are moving into their prime spending years. In poorer ones, rising incomes and the spread of mobile phones will bring more shoppers online. In China, although growth in e-commerce has slowed, Goldman Sachs, a bank, still expects online spending to more than double between 2016 and 2020, to make up nearly one-third of total retail sales. In America, Euromonitor predicts that its share will rise from about one-tenth last year to about one-sixth in 2021. In Britain the figure may rise to one-fifth.
不过，人们完全有理由相信，电商将得到蓬勃发展。在许多富裕国家，习惯网购的千禧一代即将进入消费需求最旺盛的阶段。在贫穷国家，收入的增长及手机的普及将创造更多网购需求。尽管中国的电商增速放缓，高盛银行（ Goldman Sachs）预计，到2020年，中国的网上消费将比2016年翻一番，约占零售总额的三分之一。欧洲商情市场调研公司预测，美国电商的市场份额将从2016年的10%增长至2021年的60%。在英国，占比将升至20%。
The relentless growth in e-commerce may eventually run up against natural limits. In America, argues Frederick Smith, the founder and chief executive of FedEx, a logistics firm, rising shipping expenses will make e-commerce less attractive. And different parts of the world will progress at different speeds. In India, for instance, growth has faltered. Yet there is no doubt that e-commerce has much further to go. What is less clear is how far and how fast it will rise, where it will do best, and how great its impact will be.
不断增长的电子商务或许终会达到上限。物流企业美国联邦快递（FedEx）创始人兼总裁弗雷德里克·史密斯（Frederick Smith）认为，在美国，运费的增长将削弱电商的吸引力。世界各个地区的发展速度也各异。例如，在印度，电商的增速已然放缓。当然，电商仍有很大的发展空间。但它到底能走多远，能走快？它能在哪些领域大放异彩，又能产生多大的影响？尚不明朗。
America and China, the world’s two biggest economies, have produced the two titans of the industry, Amazon and Alibaba. Both are relative youngsters. Amazon, started by Jeff Bezos as an online bookshop, had its initial public offering in 1997. Alibaba was founded by Jack Ma in 1999. Since then both have been growing at breakneck pace, bringing large-scale disruption not only to retailing but to a range of industries spanning logistics, entertainment, advertising and manufacturing in their home countries. Both have also been expanding their empires abroad. Amazon already has e-commerce sites in 14 markets and is planning further growth. Alibaba’s foreign ventures range from South-East Asia to Brazil and Russia.
全球最大的两个经济体美国和中国孕育了电商行业的两大巨头——亚马逊和阿里巴巴。它们都还年轻。1997年，由杰夫·贝索斯（ Jeff Bezos）创办的网上书城亚马逊上市。1999年，马云创办阿里巴巴。此后这两家企业便以极快的速度成长，极大地影响了零售业以及包括物流业、娱乐业、广告业和制造业在内的众多产业。它们还在国外继续拓展着自己的商业帝国。亚马逊在全球14个市场拥有电商站点，现下正计划着进一步扩展。阿里巴巴在海外投资的企业则从东南亚延伸到巴西和俄罗斯。
The two giants do not have the field all to themselves. In America, Walmart remains the biggest retailer and is spending heavily on trying to fend off Amazon. It also has a stake in JD.com, an e-commerce firm based in Beijing that had 13% of the Chinese market last year. In China, Alibaba faces not just JD but also Tencent, a messaging and payment company that is now JD’s biggest shareholder. Smaller e-commerce firms around the world have the backing of giant investors such as SoftBank, Naspers and Tiger Global. In this business, size matters. Thanks to the power of data, technological expertise and large distribution networks, the biggest e-commerce firms will only get bigger.
但两家巨头垄断不了电商行业。在美国，沃尔玛仍然是最大的零售商，并投入巨资来遏制亚马逊的扩张。同时，沃尔玛还持有中国电商京东的股份。后者拥有中国13%的市场份额。在中国，阿里巴巴的对手不仅有京东，还有腾讯。作为一家实时通讯和支付企业，腾讯现在是京东的最大股东。规模更小一些电商务企业则有全球财力雄厚的投资者的支持，如软银（SoftBank）、Naspers、老虎环球基金（ Tiger Global）。在这个行业里，规模至关重要。有了数据、技术专家和庞大的物流网的支持，电商巨头只会变得更加强大。
Data day
数据时代
Since retailing touches the economy and society in so many ways, e-commerce is already having broad effects well beyond the industry itself. In many countries retail is the biggest single private employer. In America it accounts for one in nine jobs. It is also affecting the way that other kinds of firms do business. Logistics companies are trying out new ideas to meet ever-rising expectations of fast, free delivery. Small new manufacturers are able to challenge big, established ones, thanks to the ease of selling goods online. Mountains of consumer data, the most treasured commodity of 21st-century commerce, are helping manufacturers develop products and interact with shoppers, not just online but increasingly in physical shops as well.
零售业渗透到经济和社会的方方面面，而电商的影响超出了行业本身，更为广泛。在许多国家，零售是最大的民营雇主。在美国，九个工作岗位里就有一个由零售业提供。它还影响着其他行业企业的经营。物流企业正在寻找新对策，应对不断增长的，对高效快捷传输的需求。得益于便捷的网上销售，新的小型制造企业有了与老牌大企业一较高下的可能。庞大的消费数据是21世纪商业领域里最有价值的商品，能帮助线上的以及越来越多的线下制造商开发产品，并与消费者沟通。
The implications are all the broader because Amazon and Alibaba, the industry’s two most innovative companies, do not define themselves as retailers at all. Amazon does not just sell goods: it leases cargo planes, produces films and offers a voice assistant, Alexa. Its cloud-computing business, Amazon Web Services (AWS), powers its own operations along with those of many other firms and is a vital source of profits, keeping its investors patient. Alibaba’s business is even broader than Amazon’s, including not just shopping, entertainment and cloud computing but payments and social media as well. Both companies’ activities generate cash and rich streams of data which can be used to improve their existing services and add more. Alibaba describes itself as providing the pipes and cables for all kinds of business. “To some extent we are a utility company,” says Daniel Zhang, its chief executive. “We are trying to provide an infrastructure for digital commerce.”
这其中的意味更多，因为作为行业内最富创新性的两家企业，亚马逊和阿里巴巴并不把自己完全定义为零售商。亚马逊不只销售商品；它还租赁运输机、制作电影、提供语音助手Alexa。它的云计算业务亚马逊网络服务（Amazon Web Services (AWS)）与其他企业合作并强大起来，成为亚马逊重要的收益来源，也打消了投资者们的顾虑。阿里巴巴的业务范围比亚马逊更广，除了购物、娱乐和云计算，还有网上支付和社交媒体。两家企业的经营创造了现金流和丰富的数据流，并用这些数据改善它们的现有服务，以及增加更多的服务。阿里巴巴将自己定义为各企业的基础设施的提供者。“从一定程度上说，我们是一个公共事业企业。”阿里巴巴总裁张勇说道，“我们正努力为电商提供基础服务。”
Consumers have already gained much from all this, with more in prospect. They are enjoying a broader choice of goods and more price transparency than ever before. Instead of spending time travelling to shops, picking up goods and waiting in queues, they can now do other things. Companies no longer take them for granted but compete to offer them better products, greater convenience and improved service.
消费者从中获益匪浅，未来还将受益无穷。可供他们选择的商品种类不断丰富，价格也更加透明。过去去商店挑选商品和排队等候的时间节省了下来，消费者能做其他的事情。企业不再将消费者选择自己的商品视为理所当然，而是努力为他们提供更好的产品、更加便利和优质的服务。
For bricks-and-mortar shops these are difficult times. In some parts of the world shopping malls are being blighted as their customers move online and are served from vast warehouses instead. Many traditional retail jobs will vanish as shops close and the remaining ones use more automation. Some new jobs will be created, but they may not make up for those that have gone. And electronic tracking of consumers in order to sell them more stuff will become ever more intrusive.
实体店的日子变得愈发艰难。随着愈来愈多的消费者上网消费，享受大型仓库提供的服务，一些商场逐渐凋敝。随着商店关门或是经历自动化改造，许多传统的零售岗位将会消失。一些新的工作也创造了出来，但无法填补消失的部分。为了售出更多商品，电子追踪将会渗透到消费者的生活中。
This special report will examine the effect of these changes on the retail industry and those linked to it, such as logistics, marketing and manufacturing, and assess their broader impact on society. It will begin by looking at the role played by America’s and China’s twin e-commerce giants, Amazon and Alibaba.
这篇特别报道将调查这些改变对零售业以及与之相关的行业产生的影响，包括物流、营销、制造业，还将评估其对社会产生的广泛影响。特别报道将从亚马逊和阿里巴巴这两个电商巨头着手，探寻它们发挥的作用。
编译：黄昶芳
审校：黄敏华
审校：翻吧君
来源：经济学人