AJAE新文 | 中国退耕还林项目造林中的意外土地利用效应【转】

摘要（简单翻译）：中国退耕还林计划的目的是通过补贴位于陡坡上且农作物生产力低的农田重新造林来减少土壤侵蚀。 我从理论上说，该计划产生的激励措施加上监督不足，导致了非倾斜的高产农田的植树造林。 通过一个独特的土地变动数据集，我发现这种非预期的土地利用效应是巨大的，相当于转变为森林的农田总量的近五分之一。 高产农田的这种意外流离现象代表了一种滑坡/渗漏的形式，这在生态系统服务计划支付的文献中尚未得到充分探索。 在中国以及与人口规模相关的耕地有限的其他国家，这种形式的土地流离失所很重要，因为它可能对国家粮食生产目标和自给自足目标产生负面影响。

Abstract: The aim of China’s Grain for Green Program is to reduce soil erosion by subsidizing reforestation of farmland located on steep slopes with low crop productivity. I show theoretically that the incentives created by the program combined with insufficient oversight have led to afforestation of non-sloped highly productive farmland. With a unique land transition dataset, I show that this unintended land use effect has been substantial, amounting to nearly one-fifth of the total amount of cropland converted to forest. This unexpected displacement of highly productive farmland represents a form of slippage/leakage that has not been fully explored in the literature on payment for ecosystem services programs. This form of land displacement is significant in the context of China as well as other countries with limited arable land relative to population size as it can negatively impact national food production targets and self-sufficiency goals.

原文出处：

Youpei Yan, Unintended Land Use Effects of Afforestation in China’s Grain for Green Program, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, https://doi.org/10.1093/ajae/aay107

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