AJARE 胡新艳 等 | 中国大饥荒（1959-1961）和农户采用技术：来自中国的证据【转】

*中文标题和摘要系简单翻译，可能存在部分错误，请以英文为准

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摘要：

特别地在发展中国家，新技术的传播是农业发展的重要驱动力。在这项研究中，我们追踪重大历史事件的持续性，采用倍差法仔细研究中国 1959-1961 年的大饥荒对农户当前采用技术决定的长期影响。此外，我们将中介回归与自抽样方法相结合，以探索这种关系的影响机制。总的来说，这项研究提供了强有力的经验证据，证明大饥荒削弱了技术的采用；此外，在控制村庄虚拟变量后，儿童和青春期饥荒风险增加 1% 导致技术采用概率降低 0.137%。中介效应分析表明，风险偏好是饥荒持续存在的渠道。

Abstract:

The diffusion of new technology is an important driver of agricultural development, especially in the developing world. In this research, we follow the persistence of major historical events, employing a difference-in-differences method to carefully examine the long-term effect of China’s 1959–1961 famine on farm households’ current decisions to adopt technology. Further, we combine a mediating regression procedure with a bootstrap method to explore the mechanism of impact in this relationship. Overall, this study provides strong empirical evidence that the Great Famine attenuated technology adoption; moreover, a 1% increase in exposure to famine in childhood and adolescence resulted in a 0.137% decrease in the probability of technology adoption when controlling for village dummies. An analysis of mediating effects reveals that risk preferences account for the channel of famine persistence.

原文链接（点击“阅读原文”跳转）：

https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8489.12444

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撰文编辑：王煜正

审核：龙文进