https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/toc/14678489/2023/67/1
On the way out: Government revenues from fossil fuels in Australia
Technology catch-up in agriculture among advanced economies
Virgil Eldon Ball, Carlos San Juan Mesonada, Carlos Sunyer Manteiga, Kennet Ericson, Yu ShengTotal factor productivity change in China's grain production sector: 1980–2018
Zhihao Zheng, Shen Cheng, Shida R. HenneberryLabour-saving technologies in smallholder agriculture: An economy-wide model with field operations
Arndt Feuerbacher, Jonas LuckmannConsumers' willingness to pay for organic rice: Insights from a non-hypothetical experiment in Indonesia
Michael Grimm, Nathalie Luck, Franziska SteinhübelFutures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America
Dragan Miljkovic, Cole GoetzModelling the switch from hail insurance to antihail nets
Marco Rogna, Günter Schamel, Alex WeissensteinerSize matters: Optimal management of dynamic systems with varying size
Tiho Ancev, Karunagaran Madhavan
On the way out: Government revenues from fossil fuels in Australia
Abstract: Australia is moving from a fossil fuel-dominated energy mix to one that is increasingly powered by solar and wind. Fossil fuel exports are also likely to decline given their poor compatibility with the net zero emission targets of key trading partners. There is the potential for a variety of new exports of zero carbon energy and products to emerge. This paper reviews implications of the ongoing energy transition for government revenues from fossil fuel extraction and use and discusses policy options in response. It concludes that the transition heightens the need for efficient government revenue-raising mechanisms across the economy. Among the possible reforms, this paper reviews the potential for Australia's corporate income tax to be reoriented towards the taxation of above-normal profits via an allowance for corporate equity approach. Other revenue-raising options that are discussed include carbon pricing, electronic road user pricing, wider use of progressive royalties, the use of industry levies as applied in Australia's agricultural sector, and the generation of revenue from government co-investments.Technology catch-up in agriculture among advanced economies
Virgil Eldon Ball Carlos San Juan Mesonada Carlos Sunyer Manteiga Kennet Ericson Yu ShengAbstract: We examine whether countries with low initial levels of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) tend to ‘catch up’ with the technology leaders. We first compare relative levels of agricultural TFP, capital services and labour input levels in agriculture for 17 OECD countries between 1973 and 2011. Then we apply (conditional) convergence analysis to the panel data to examine the speed of convergence and test whether the convergence is transitory or permanent by analysing TFP changes over the business cycle. Capital intensities, quality improvement of capital, factors such as human capital spillovers, and certain agricultural policies are conditioning variables. We examine how differences in relative capital intensities affect agricultural productivity convergence over the business cycle. We find evidence that the speed of convergence increases during periods of contraction in economic activity.Total factor productivity change in China's grain production sector: 1980–2018
Zhihao Zheng Shen Cheng Shida R. HenneberryAbstract: This study analyses changes in total factor productivity (TFP) of grains as an aggregate commodity and major grain crops including rice, wheat, and corn, using pooled provincial and time-series data from 1980 to 2018 for China. Results show that the growth of TFP in the grain sector was driven by technical improvements. Moreover, the grain output and wheat production benefited more from TFP growth, whereas the growth in the usage of inputs drove the growth in rice and corn production. Findings also indicate that the laissez-faire market-oriented policy led to a dramatic fall in output while the intervention-led policy resulted in a substantial rise in output, but neither of them fostered the growth of productivity. Conversely, the incentive-led policy in a market-oriented environment that raised the comparative profitability in grain production promoted the growth in both output and productivity in the grain sector. As the comparative advantage shifts away from agriculture in China, an appropriate support is thus necessary to stimulate farmers' incentive in growing grain crops.Labour-saving technologies in smallholder agriculture: An economy-wide model with field operations
Arndt Feuerbacher Jonas LuckmannAbstract: Labour-saving technologies are relevant for agricultural development. Yet, as this study shows, they are poorly integrated into agricultural production functions of economy-wide models. We report a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, which explicitly incorporating field operations (e.g. land preparation, weeding or harvesting) in the context of smallholder agriculture. The field operations approach allows to model technological trade-offs in organic and conventional production systems at various stages of the agricultural production process. Simulating a structural change scenario, we compare the performance of the field operations approach with published benchmark production structures by assessing how they replicate empirically observed changes in land and agrochemical use. This benchmark analysis shows that incorporating field operations replicates the observed empirical changes most accurately and allows for more realistic modelling of labour-saving technologies. We use the field operations model to investigate three policy options to mitigate labour shortages in the agricultural sector of Bhutan. Permitting the employment of Indian workers in agriculture has the highest short-term potential in this respect. We find that subsidising agricultural machinery hiring services and removing import tariffs on agrochemical inputs are found to be less effective. Further options for model developments, such as combining field operations and labour market seasonality, are highlighted.Consumers' willingness to pay for organic rice: Insights from a non-hypothetical experiment in Indonesia
Michael Grimm Nathalie Luck Franziska SteinhübelAbstract: As in many high-income countries, there is increasing awareness towards organic farming in many low- and middle-income countries. Sustained local demand is an essential requirement for further adoption of organic farming by smallholders, who typically have only limited access to export markets. Until now, only few studies have explored the local willingness to pay (WTP) for organic products in low- and middle-income countries in real purchase situations. This paper analyses the consumers' WTP for organic rice in urban and suburban Indonesia using an incentive-compatible auction based on the Becker–DeGroot–Marschak (BDM) approach. We further study the effect of income and a randomised information treatment about the benefits of organic food on respondents' WTP. Estimates suggest that respondents are willing to pay an average price premium of 20% compared with what they paid for conventional rice outside our experiment. However, our results also indicate that raising consumers' WTP further is complex. Showing participants a video about health or, alternatively, environmental benefits of organic food was not effective in further raising WTP. The results can be used as a basis for the design of alternative awareness measures to increase knowledge, interest and demand for organic food.Futures markets and price stabilisation: An analysis of soybeans markets in North America
Dragan Miljkovic Cole GoetzAbstract: The objective of this paper was to determine whether the futures markets have a stabilising or destabilising impact on soybean's spot prices in North America. Directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) are used to test for causality between futures prices, spot prices and ending stocks, followed by time series econometric analysis. The DAGs point to the two-way causal link between futures and spot prices and a lack of a causal link between inventory/stocks and spot price volatility. Time series results, including cointegration, vector error correction, impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, indicate a large impact from futures markets on the level and volatility of soybean spot prices in both the short and long run. These results have potentially important implications, as the impact of commodity price volatility is typically asymmetric across different actors. Farmers, for example, unlike speculators, utilise price risk management (PRM) instruments such as futures markets to mitigate price risks and appear to suffer from intensified volatility precisely because of their use of these instruments. Therefore, additional policies to cope with commodity price volatility, such as direct price controls or mitigation of consequences, can have critical stabilising functions supporting farmers' welfare and regional (rural) development.Modelling the switch from hail insurance to antihail nets
Marco Rogna Günter Schamel Alex WeissensteinerAbstract: We analyse the impact of the antihail net promotion on the actuarial soundness of the hail insurance market. Specifically, we present a simple model showing that, in the presence of an imperfect insurance market, incentives for antihail nets could cause low-risk farmers to exit the insurance market more likely than high-risk ones. This induces a typical adverse selection problem. The theoretical model predictions are corroborated by an empirical investigation. Based on a fixed-effect conditional logit regression, we show that a higher per-hectare output value and a location strongly affected by hail both increase the chance that a plot is hedged through antihail nets.Size matters: Optimal management of dynamic systems with varying size
Tiho Ancev Karunagaran MadhavanAbstract: Many natural and economic systems are managed to deliver the highest benefits to society but are subject to regime shifts. We specifically consider the variability of the size of the system itself as a key driver of a regime shift. We address the question of how the optimal management of these systems should vary with its size. Put simply, certain management options might work when the system is of a given size, while others might be preferred when the system has grown or shrunk. In this paper, we develop a model that allows us to analyse the effect of the size of the system on its optimal management. We apply this model to a case of water pollution in a reservoir/lake that varies in size over time: sometimes the lake is deep and sometimes it is shallow. Numerical simulations were conducted to compare optimal management of the reservoir with and without explicitly modelling its size variation. The findings show that the overall social costs of optimally managing pollution are significantly smaller when the variability in size is taken into account. This is due to differences in the timing and magnitude of the optimal control. The key implication is that the variability of the size of a system should be explicitly considered in this type of management problems.
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编辑：秦运兰
审核：龙文进