11月3日快到了
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11月3日是美国大选的日子,还有60天
英国《每日快报》是一份创刊于1900年的报纸;Democracy Institute是一家位于美国首都华盛顿和英国首都伦敦的智囊团,成立于2006年。
1,在全国的支持率上:
National Popular Vote
Trump = 48%
Biden = 45%
Undecided = 7%(未决定:7%)
White voters(白人): Trump = 53% Biden = 45%
Black(黑人): Trump 19% Biden = 77%
Hispanic(拉丁裔): Trump 39% Biden = 50%
Battleground States – Popular Vote Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin(在佛罗里达、艾奥瓦、密歇根、明尼苏达、宾夕法尼亚以及威斯康辛)
Trump = 49%
Biden = 42%
Undecided = 10%
明尼苏达的明尼阿波利斯市,就是今年5月25日发生黑人弗洛伊德之死的城市;威斯康辛近期也发生了种族事件;佛罗里达算是最重要的摇摆州;密歇根的女州长叫格雷琴,此人的宅邸前几个月被持枪民众包围过。
Electoral College Vote Projection :
Trump = 319 [picks-up Minnesota & New Hampshire(包括明尼苏达与新罕布什尔)]
Biden = 219
Q. “Are you strongly or very enthusiastic about your choice of candidate?”(问题:你是否强烈或者非常支持你所选择的候选人?)
Trump voters = 82%的支持者强烈支持他
Biden voters = 40%的支持者强烈支持他
Q. “Is your vote for Trump/Biden a positive vote for your candidate or a negative vote against his opponent?
Trump voters: positive vote (积极支持,即因爱支持)= 85%; negative vote (消极支撑,即因为讨厌别人而支持他)= 15%
Biden voters: positive vote (积极支持,即因爱支持)= 34%; negative vote(消极支撑,即因为讨厌别人而支持他) = 66%
Q “Could your vote change before Election Day?”
Trump voters: Yes = 3%
Biden voters: Yes = 9%
Questions to Undecided Voters(针对中间派选民的问题)
Q “Does a relative, friend, or coworker plan to vote for Trump?”(问题:是否有亲戚、朋友或者同事计划投票给Trump?)
Yes = 72%
No = 28%
Questions to Undecided Voters
Q “Will President Trump be reelected?”
Yes = 57%
Questions to Undecided Voters
Q “Which candidate will win the first presidential debate?”(问题:谁会赢得第一轮总统辩论?)
Trump = 66%
Biden = 34%
许多左派人士,包括众议院议长,都表示不希望举行辩论比赛。
Q:"Are you comfortable with your relatives, friends, and coworkers knowing how you vote?”
Trump voters: Yes = 25%(即75%的支持者不希望别人知道他支持谁)
Biden voters: Yes = 86%(即14%的支持者不希望别人知道他支持谁)
Question to All Voters
Q “Which candidate will win the first presidential debate?”(问题,谁会赢得第一次辩论?)
Trump = 56%
Biden = 44%
第一次辩论在9月29日举行
Question to All Voters
Trump’s National Job Approval
Approve(认可) = 52%
Disapprove (不认可)= 46%
Party ID – Trump’s National Job Approval
Republican(象党) = 86%的人认可
Democrat (驴党)= 28%的人认可
Independent (中间派)= 49%的人认可
Race/ethnicity – Trump’s National Job Approval
White(白人) = 58%
Black (黑人)= 42%
Hispanic(拉丁裔) = 46%
Gender – Trump’s National Job Approval
Men(男性) = 54%
Women (女性)= 48%
Religion – Trump’s National Job Approval
Evangelical (福音派)= 90%
Protestant(清教徒) = 62%
Catholic (天主教)= 64%
Jewish (犹太教)= 33%
Atheist(无神论) = 10%
Age – Trump’s National Job Approval
65 years & over = 58%
45-64 years = 64%
30-44 years = 45%
18-29 years = 38%
Marital Status – Trump’s National Job Approval
Married (已婚):63%
Single (未婚):31%
Q “Did the Democratic national convention that nominated the Biden-Harris ticket make you more or less likely to vote for the Biden-Harris ticket?” (民主党全国代表大会提名Biden和卡马拉,是否让你更有可能投票给他们?)
More likely = 8%的人更有可能
Less likely = 13%的人更少可能
No difference = 79%没有影响
Q “Did/has the Republican national convention that nominated the Trump-Pence ticket make/made you more or less likely to vote for the Trump-Pence ticket?”(问题:提名Trump和Pence的共和党大会是否让你更有可能投票给他们?)
More likely = 21%更有可能
Less likely = 9%更少可能
No difference = 70%的人没有影响
Q “Which issue is most important to you?”(问题:下列哪项议题对你最重要?)
Law & order/riots/violence (秩序与法律)= 37%
Economy/jobs (经济与工作)= 27%
Education (教育)= 13%
Coronavirus/COVID-19 pandemic(疫情) = 13%
Immigration (移民)= 10%
Q “Is the economy rebounding from the COVID-19 pandemic-induced shutdown?”(问题:经济是否正在从疫情中复苏?)
Yes = 67%
No = 33%
Q “Which candidate do you trust to do the best job handling the economy?”
Trump = 59%
Biden = 41%
Q “Do you approve/disapprove of President Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic?”
Approve = 44%满意
Disapprove = 48%不满意
Q “Do you want your local school to re-open soon?” (问题:你希望尽快重启当地的学校吗?)
Yes = 67%
No = 33%
Q “Which phrase better fits your own thinking about race in America?” (问题:下列哪个句子更符合你对美国种族问题的想法?)
Black Lives Matter = 26%(26%的人认可黑命贵)
All Lives Matter = 74%(74%的人认为所有的生命都重要)
Q “Did Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris as his running mate make you more or less likely to vote for him?”
More likely :11%正面
Less likely :12%负面
No difference:77%没影响
Q “Do you approve or disapprove of the removal of historic monuments and statues because certain individuals or groups find them offensive?” (问题:一些特定的人群觉得某些历史雕塑冒犯到了他们,他们想要移走这些雕像,你同意吗?)
Approve :15%同意
Disapprove:79%反对
Q “Do the violent protests in Wisconsin make you more or less likely to vote for Trump?” (威斯康辛的暴乱会让你更支持总统吗?)
More likely = 26%正面回答
Less likely = 10%负面回答
Makes no difference = 64%没有影响
Q “Has President Trump’s approach to the ongoing protests and riots been too tough, just right under the circumstances, or not tough enough?” (问题:川普对暴乱的处理,是太过强硬,还是刚刚好,抑或是不够强硬?)
Too tough: 23%的人认为太强硬
Just right:33%的人认为感刚好
Not tough enough: 44%的人认为不够强硬
Approve = 62%满意
Disapprove = 38%不满意
Q “Has Joe Biden been sufficiently critical of the violent rioting?”(问题:Biden对暴乱的批评足够吗?)
Yes = 34%认为足够
No = 64%认为不足够
Q “Should government prioritise law & order on city streets or prioritise improving relations between Black Americans and the police?”(问题:政府是应该优先恢复街道上的法律与秩序,还是应该优先处理提升警察与黑人间的关系?)
Law & order = 72%
Improving relations between Black Americans & police = 26%
72%的人认为恢复秩序与法律更重要
26%的人认为处理警察与黑人间的关系更重要
Q “Do you support de-funding your local police department?”
Yes = 16%
No = 75%
问题:你是否支持削减你所在地的警察经费?
16%的人支持削减
75%的人反对削减
Q “Do you think Joe Biden is experiencing some form of cognitive decline, such as the early stages of dementia?”
Yes = 59%
No = 40%
Don’t know = 1%
问题:你是否相信Biden正在经历某种形式的认知能力下滑?比如老年痴呆症的早期状态?
59%的人表示相信
40%的人表示不相信
1%的人表示不知道
Q “Does your opinion of Joe Biden’s mental acuity make you more or less likely to vote for him?”
More likely = 15%
Less likely = 48%
No difference = 37%
问题:你对Biden精神状态的看法,会让你更愿意还是更不愿意投票给拜登?
15%的人表示更愿意
48%的人表示更不愿意
37%的人表示没有影响
Q “Is Trump/Biden a strong leader?”(问题:谁有更出色的领导力?)
Trump = 70%
Biden = 24%
Q “Is Donald Trump a populist?”
Yes = 77%
No = 23%
Q “Is Trump/Biden a likeable person?”
Trump = 32%
Biden = 59%