TED演讲：我们已在灾难的边缘，能为气候未来做些什么？
也许你曾认为气候变化的速度很慢，或发生在很远的地方，对生活不会有太大的威胁。但地球不断发出警告，提醒我们，这样的想法很危险！
作家David认为，我们已在大灾难的边缘。气候危机不是我们祖先的遗产，而是我们这个世代的杰作。我们需要行动起来，去转变我们的生活方式，撰写一个关于气候未来的崭新故事。
演讲者：David Wallace-Wells
专栏作家和《不适合居住的地球:变暖后的生命》一书的作者，该书探讨了气候变化将如何改变人类在这个星球上的体验。
I'm here to talk about climate change, but I'm not really an environmentalist. In fact, I've never really thought of myself as a nature person. I have never gone camping, never gone hiking, never even owned a pet.
我来这里是要谈气候变迁，但我其实不是环境学家。事实上，我从来没有想过我会是个关心大自然的人。我从来没有去露营或健行过，从来没有养过宠物。
I've lived my whole life in cities, actually just one city. And while I like to take trips to visit nature, I always thought it was something that was happening elsewhere, far away, with all of modern life a fortress against its forces.
我一生都住在城市中，且都是同一个城市。虽然我喜欢外出旅行去看大自然，但我总认为气候变迁发生在其他地方，很远的地方，而现代生活是座保垒，可以对抗它的力量。
In other words, like just about everybody I knew, I lived my life complacent and deluded about the threat from global warming. Which I took to be happening slowly, happening at a distance and representing only a modest threat to the way that I lived. In each of these ways, I was very, very wrong.
换言之，就和我认识的所有人一样，我过着自我满足的生活，搞不清楚全球暖化的威胁。我以为全球暖化发生的速度很慢，发生在很远的地方，且对我所过的生活不会有太大的威胁。上述的每个想法，都大错特错。
Now most people, if they were telling you about climate change, will tell you a story about the future. If I was doing that, I would say, "According to the UN, if we don't change course, by the end of the century, we're likely to get about four degrees Celsius of warming."
通常别人跟你谈气候变迁时，都会说未来的故事。如果是我，我会说：「联合国说，这世纪末前我们再不做出改变，我们就会有四摄氏度的暖化。」
That would mean, some scientists believe, twice as much war, half as much food, a global GDP possibly 20 percent smaller than it would be without climate change. That's an impact that's deeper than the Great Depression, and it would be permanent.
有些科学家相信，四度的暖化就表示战争会加倍、食物会减半、全球 GDP 可能会比没有气候变迁的状况低 20%。这个冲击比经济大萧条更深，且会是永久性的。
But the impacts are actually happening a lot faster than 2100. By just 2050, it's estimated, many of the biggest cities in South Asia and the Middle East will be almost literally unlivably hot in summer.
但，影响其实发生得很快，远早于 2100 年。估计到了 2050 年，南亚和中东的许多大城市在夏天会热到几乎无法居住。
These are cities that today are home to 10, 12, 15 million people. And in just three decades, you wouldn't be able to walk around outside in them without risking heatstroke or possibly death.
现今有一千万、一千两百万、一千五百万人住在这些城市。只要再三十年，你只要在这些城市的室外走动就有中暑的风险，甚至可能会死亡。
The planet is now 1.1 degrees Celsius warmer than it was before industrialization. That may not sound like a lot, but it actually puts us entirely outside the window of temperatures that enclose all of human history.
地球现在的温度已经比工业化之前高出摄氏 1.1 度了。听起来可能不太多，但那就已经让我们的温度落在整个人类历史的温度范围之外了。
That means that everything we have ever known as a species, the evolution of the human animal, the development of agriculture, the development of rudimentary civilization and modern civilization and industrial civilization, everything we know about ourselves as biological creatures, as social creatures, as political creatures, all of it is the result of climate conditions we have already left behind.
那就表示，我们人类所知道的一切，人类动物的演化，农业的发展，初期文明、现代文明、工业文明的发展，我们对于我们这种生物动物、社交动物、政治动物所知的一切，所有这些，通通都是我们过去气候条件的结果。
It's like we've landed on an entirely different planet, with an entirely different climate. And we now have to figure out what of the civilization that we've brought with us can endure these new conditions and what can't. And things will get worse from here.
现在彷佛我们降落在一个不同的星球上，这里有着不同的气候。现在我们得弄清楚我们带来的文明中，有哪些可以承受这些新条件，哪些不能。且，从此之后，只会每况愈下。
Now for a very long time, we were told that climate change was a slow saga. It started with the industrial revolution, and it had fallen to us to clean up the mess left by our grandparents so our grandchildren wouldn't be dealing with the results. It was a story of centuries.
有很长一段时间，我们都听说气候变化是个很缓慢的传说。它从工业革命开始，替我们的上上代收拾善后变成是我们的责任，这样我们的孩子才不用去面对那些后果。这是个横跨数世纪的故事。
In fact, half of all of the emissions that have ever been produced from the burning of fossil fuels in the entire history of humanity have been produced in just the last 30 years.
事实上，在整个人类历史中，因为燃烧化石燃料所产生的排放量，有一半都是在过去三十年间产生的。
That's since Al Gore published his first book on warming. It's since the UN established its IPCC climate change body. We've done more damage since then than in all the centuries, all the millennia before.
也就是在高尔出版了他的第一本关于暖化的书之后。也就是联合国建立了政府间气候变化专门委员会之后。我们在那之后所造成的伤害就已经超过了在那之前数百年、数千年的伤害。
Now I'm 37 years old, which means my life contains this entire story. When I was born, the planet's climate seemed stable. Today, we are on the brink of catastrophe. The climate crisis is not the legacy of our ancestors. It is the work of a single generation. Ours.
我现在三十七岁，那就表示我的人生会经历这整个故事。我出生时，地球的气候似乎还稳定。现今，我们已经在大灾难的边缘。气候危机不是我们祖先的遗产。它是一个世代的杰作。我们这个世代。
This may all sound like bad news. Which it is, really bad news. But it also contains, I think, some good news, at least relatively speaking. These impacts are terrifyingly large. But they are also, I think, exhilarating.
可能听起来通通都是坏消息。的确，都是坏消息。但，我认为，当中也有一些好消息，至少相对算好。这些影响大得惊人。但，我想，它们也令人振奋。
Because they are ultimately a reflection of how much power we have over the climate. If we get to those hellish scenarios, it will be because we have made them happen, because we have chosen to make them happen. Which means we can choose to make other scenarios happen, too.
因为最终它们是一种反映，反映出我们对气候有多少控制权。如果我们之后发生了那些可怖的情况，那是因为我们造成的，是我们选择让那些情况发生的。那就表示，我们也可以选择让其他情况发生。
Now that may seem too rosy to believe and the political obstacles are in fact enormous. But it is a simple fact -- the main driver of global warming is human action: How much carbon we put into the atmosphere. Our hands are on those levers. And we can write the story of the planet's climate future ourselves.
那听起来可能太美好，很难置信，且实际上的政治阻碍很巨大。但事实很简单——全球暖化的主要推手就是人类行为：我们把多少碳送到大气中。我们的手就在那些控制杆上。我们自己能撰写关于地球气候未来的故事。
Not just can -- but are. Since inaction is a kind of action, we'll be writing that story ourselves whether we like it or not. This is not just any story, all of us holding the future of the planet in our hands.
不是「能」——是「正在」。因为不行动也是一种行动，不论我们喜欢与否，我们都会写下那个故事。这不只是一个故事而已，地球的未来就掌控在我们所有人的手中。
It's the kind of story we used to recognize only in mythology and theology. A single generation that has brought the future of humanity into doubt now tasked with securing a new future.
这是以前我们只会在神话和神学当中才会看到的故事。单单一个世代就让人类的未来存疑，现在这个世代的任务是要确保有崭新的未来。
So what would that look like? It could mean solar arrays barnacling the planet, really everywhere you looked. It could mean if we developed better technology, we wouldn't even need to deploy them that broadly, because it's been estimated that just a sliver of the Sahara desert absorbs enough solar power to provide all the world's energy needs.
那会是什么样子的？可能会是太阳能板遍布地球，真的到处都可见到。这可能表示我们开发出更好的技术，我们甚至不用广泛施行这项技术，因为，据估计，光是撒哈拉沙漠的一小块就足以吸收足够的太阳能，供应全世界需要的能量。
But we'd probably need a new electric grid, one that doesn't lose two-thirds of its power to waste heat, as is today the case in the US. We could use some more nuclear power, perhaps, although it would have to be an entirely different kind of nuclear power, because today's technology simply isn't cost-competitive with renewable energy whose costs are falling so rapidly.
但我们可能会需要新的电力网，且不能像现今美国的电力网，把三分之二的电力浪费在废热上。我们可能会需要更多一些核能，不过，会是完全不同类的核能，因为现今的技术在成本上没有竞争力，无法和成本快速下降的再生能源竞争。
We'd need a new kind of plane, because I don't think it's particularly practical to ask the entire world to give up on air travel, especially as so much of the global South is, for the very first time, able to afford it. We need planes that won't produce carbon.
我们会需要一种新飞机，因为我认为，要求全世界都放弃航空旅行是不太实际的做法，特别是因为这是大部分南半球有史以来第一次能负担得起航空旅行。我们需要不会产生碳的飞机。
We need a new kind of agriculture. Because we probably can't ask people to entirely give up on meat and go vegan, it would mean a new way of raising beef.
我们需要一种新的农业。因为我们可能无法要求大家完全放弃吃肉，改吃素，那就表示要用新方法来饲养食用牛。
Or perhaps an old way, since we already know that traditional pasturing practices can turn cattle farms from what are called carbon sources, which produce CO2, into carbon sinks, which absorb them.
或者也许可以延用古早的方法，因为我们已经知道传统放牧法会让养牛场从产生二氧化碳的碳来源转变成能吸收碳的碳汇。
If you prefer a techno solution, maybe we can grow some of that mean in the lab. Probably, we could also feed some real cattle seaweed, because that cuts their methane emissions by as much as 95 or 99 percent.
若你偏好技术性解决方案，也许我们可以在实验室中培养出一些肉类。也许我们可以用海草来喂牛，因为那会将牠们的甲烷排放减低 95% 或 99%。
Probably, we'd have to do all of these things, because as with every aspect of this puzzle, the problem is simply too vast and complicated to solve in any single silver-bullet way.
可能上述的通通都要做到，因为，不论是这个难题的哪个面向，问题都太大、太复杂，无法用万能的单一招式来解决。
And no matter how many solutions we deploy, we probably won't be able to decarbonize in time. That's the terrifying math that we face. We won't be able to beat climate change, only live with it and limit it.
不论我们施行多少种解决方案，我们可能都无法实时将碳除去。我们面对的是很骇人的数学。我们将无法打败气候变迁，只能和它共存并限制它。
And that means we'd probably need some amount of what are called negative emissions, which take carbon out of the atmosphere as well.
那就表示我们可能会需要一些所谓的负排放，也就是将碳从大气中去除。
Billions of new trees, maybe trillions of new trees. And whole plantations of carbon-capture machines. Perhaps an industry twice or four times the size of today's oil and gas business to undo the damage that was done by those businesses in past decades.
数十亿，可能数兆棵新树木。还有一大片的捕碳机器。可能还要有一个产业，规模是现今石油天然气事业的二或四倍，来将那些事业在过去数十年所造成的伤害给还原。
We would need a new kind of infrastructure, poured by a different kind of cement, because today, if cement were a country, it would be the world's third biggest emitter. And China is pouring as much cement every three years as the US poured in the entire 20th century.
我们会需要一种新的基础建设，注入不同类的水泥，因为，现今，如果水泥是个国家，它会是全世界第三大的排放国。中国每三年所使用的水泥量相当于美国在整个二十世纪所使用的量。
We would need to build seawalls and levees to protect those people living on the coast, many of whom are too poor to build them today, which is why it must mean an end to a narrowly nationalistic geopolitics that allows us to define the suffering of those living elsewhere in the world as insignificant, when we even acknowledge it.
我们也需要建立防波堤和堤坝来保护住在海岸边的人，这些人当中有许多都太贫穷，无法筑堤，这就是为什么，必须要终结狭隘的国家主义地缘政治，不要再把世界上其他地方的人所受到的苦难定义为不重要的，且我们还承认那些苦难。
This better future won't be easy. But the only obstacles are human ones. That may not be much of a comfort, if you know what I know about human brutality and indifference, but I promise you, it is better than the alternative. Science isn't stopping us from taking action, and neither is technology. We have the tools we need today to begin.
这个更好的未来并不容易达成。但唯一的障碍就是人为障碍。如果你知道我所知道的人类残酷和冷漠，可能会觉得这一点也不让人欣慰，但我向各位保证，这还是比其他选择更好。科学并没有阻止我们采取行动，技术也没有。我们现今已经有起步所需要的工具了。
Of course, we also have the tools we need to end global poverty, epidemic disease and the abuse of women as well. Which is why more than new tools, we need a new politics, a way of overcoming all those human obstacles -- our culture, our economics, our status quo bias, our disinterest in taking seriously anything that really scares us.
当然，我们也有必要的工具可以终结全球贫困、大流行的疾病，还有对女性的虐待。这就是为什么我们需要新政治多于新工具，我们需要一种方式来克服所有这些人为障碍——我们的文化、我们的经济、我们的现况偏见、我们没有意愿想要认真看待会让我们害怕的事物。
Our shortsightedness. Our sense of self-interest. And the selfishness of the world's rich and powerful who have the least incentive to change anything.
我们的短浅目光。我们的自利。以及世界上有钱有权且最没有动机去改变的人的自私。
Now, they will suffer too, but not as much as those with the least, who have done the least to produce warming and have benefited the least from the processes that have brought us to this crisis point but will be burdened most in the decades ahead. A new politics would make the matter of managing that burden, where it falls and how heavily, the top priority of our time.
他们将来也会受苦，但不会像弱势的人那么苦，弱势的人对暖化的贡献最少，在把我们带到现今这个危机点的过程中，他们却也受益最少，但在将来的数十年，他们的担子会最重。新政治会让管理那些重担的问题，比如重担落在哪里、有多重，成为我们这个时代的最优先处理议题。
No matter what we do, climate change will transform modern life. Some amount of warming is already baked in and is inevitable, which means probably some amount of additional suffering is, too.
不论我们怎么做，气候变迁都会改变现代生活。有些暖化已经发生，无可避免，那就表示，可能也会有一些额外的苦难。
And even if we take dramatic action and avoid some of these truly terrifying worst-case scenarios, it would mean living on an entirely different planet. With a new politics, a new economics, a new relationship to technology and a new relationship to nature -- a whole new world. But a relatively livable one. Relatively prosperous. And green. Why not choose that one?
即使我们采取大动作，并避免一些很骇人的最糟情况，那就表示居住在一个完全不同的星球上。有着新政治、新经济、和科技的新关系，以及和大自然的新关系——全新的世界。但，相对是比较宜居的世界。相对比较繁荣。且比较绿。为什么不选那个世界？
Thank you.
谢谢RECOMMEND
推荐阅读439篇Ted英文演讲视频集合，推荐收藏！100篇美国20世纪精彩演讲（文本+MP3音频）
108篇经典BBC纪录片合集，强烈推荐！
《纽约时报》年度十大好书，2019最值得看的英文书单！
54部经典经典英文名著合集，收藏贴~2010年代豆瓣十佳经典影片！全部9.0分以上（附资源）
《暮光之城》经典台词整理（附1-4部资源）
《风雨哈佛路》经典回顾：你的人生，其实早就注定了（附完整视频）