TED演讲：10年后惊人的劳动力危机！
今年，不管以前有没有职业危机的，在这艰难的几个月里都纷纷自我怀疑起来——我会不会明天就被“优化”了？
失业，劳动力危机，其实离我们并不远。到2030年，现在我们能看到的比较吃香的职业，可能会渐渐消失。人力资源专家雷纳·斯特拉克（Rainer Strack）在这篇极具吸引力的演讲中建议，各国应跨越国界寻找流动性强并且符合职业发展需求的求职者。只是，要做到这一点的话，他们还需要从改变企业文化开始。
演讲者：Rainer Strack
演讲题目：The workforce crisis of 2030 -- and how to start solving it now
2014 is a very special year for me: 20 years as a consultant, 20 years of marriage, and I'm turning 50 in one month. That means I was born in 1964 in a small town in Germany.
2014对我而言是特殊的一年：20年的咨询生涯，20年的婚姻经历，还有下个月我就要50岁了。我是1964年出生在一个德国小镇。
It was a gray November day, and I was overdue. The hospital's maternity ward was really stressed out because a lot of babies were born on this gray November day. As a matter of fact, 1964 was the year with the highest birth rate ever in Germany: more than 1.3 million. Last year, we just hit over 600,000, so half of my number.
那是在十一月份一个灰蒙蒙的日子，我已经过了预产期却还没有出生。医院的产房简直忙坏了，因为当天有很多孩子出生。事实上，1964年是德国出生率最高的一年：新生婴儿超过130万。而前一年，只有60万出头，我出生这一年的一半而已。
What you can see here is the German age pyramid, and there, the small black point at the top, that's me. (Laughter) (Applause) In red, you can see the potential working-age population, so people over 15 and under 65, and I'm actually only interested in this red area.
这里你们所看到的是德国的年龄金字塔，最顶端有个小黑点，那就是我。红色的是潜在的工龄人群，也就是15岁以上65岁以下的人。我感兴趣的其实只是这块红色区域。
Now, let's do a simple simulation of how this age structure will develop over the next couple of years. As you can see, the peak is moving to the right, and I, with many other baby boomers, will retire in 2030. By the way, I don't need any forecasts of birth rates for predicting this red area.
现在，咱们做一个简单模拟，看看这个年龄结构在未来的几年将如何发展。你们能看到，高峰向右移动，而我，连同很多其他婴儿潮出生的人，将在2030年退休。顺便说一句，预测这块红色区域不需要对出生率进行估计。
The red area, so the potential working-age population in 2030, is already set in stone today, except for much higher migration rates. And if you compare this red area in 2030 with the red area in 2014, it is much, much smaller.
这块红色区域，2030年潜在的工龄人群，现在就已经决定了，除非有更高的迁移率。如果你比较2030年和2014年的红色区域，你会发现2030年的要小得多。
So before I show you the rest of the world, what does this mean for Germany? So what we know from this picture is that the labor supply, so people who provide labor, will go down in Germany, and will go down significantly. Now, what about labor demand? That's where it gets tricky. As you might know, the consultant's favorite answer to any question is, "It depends." So I would say it depends. We didn't want to forecast the future. Highly speculative. We did something else.
在我展示世界其他地方的情况之前，你们觉得这对德国意味着什么？从这个图表中我们知道，劳动力供给，也就是能够劳动的人，在德国将减少，显著减少。那么，劳动力需求呢？这就有点微妙了。你们可能知道，咨询师对任何问题的惯用答案是， “看情况。”所以我也得说，这要看情况。我们不想去预测未来。有太多不确定性。我们用了另一种方式。
We looked at the GDP and productivity growth of Germany over the last 20 years, and calculated the following scenario: if Germany wants to continue this GDP and productivity growth, we could directly calculate how many people Germany would need to support this growth. And this is the green line: labor demand.
我们研究了过去20年德国的GDP和生产力增长，计算出了以下情形：如果德国的GDP和生产力想要继续增长，我们可以直接计算出德国需要多少人来支撑这种增长。就是绿色的线：劳动力需求。
So Germany will run into a major talent shortage very quickly. Eight million people are missing, which is more than 20 percent of our current workforce, so big numbers, really big numbers. And we calculated several scenarios, and the picture always looked like this.
所以德国很快将出现劳动人口严重短缺。800万人的缺口，超出我们现有劳动力人数20%。很大的数字，相当大。我们计算了几种不同的情形，结果都是这样的。
Now, to close the gap, Germany has to significantly increase migration, get many more women in the workforce, increase retirement age — by the way, we just lowered it this year — and all these measures at once. If Germany fails here, Germany will stagnate. We won't grow anymore. Why? Because the workers are not there who can generate this growth. And companies will look for talents somewhere else. But where?
那么，要缩小缺口，德国需要大量鼓励移民，并让更多女性进入劳动力大军，还要提高退休年龄——顺便说一句，我们今年才降低了退休年龄—并同时采取这些措施。如果德国不这样做，德国就会陷入停滞。我们的经济将不再增长。为什么？因为没有能够支撑这种增长的劳动力。企业将要去别处找寻人才。但人才从哪里来呢？
Now, we simulated labor supply and labor demand for the largest 15 economies in the world, representing more than 70 percent of world GDP, and the overall picture looks like this by 2020. Blue indicates a labor surplus, red indicates a labor shortfall, and gray are those countries which are borderline.
我们模拟了15个世界最大的经济体的劳动力供给和需求，这些经济体的总和超过了世界GDP的70%。到2020年，总体情况将是这样。蓝色表示劳动力剩余，红色表示劳动力短缺，灰色是处在边界的国家。
So by 2020, we still see a labor surplus in some countries, like Italy, France, the U.S., but this picture will change dramatically by 2030. By 2030, we will face a global workforce crisis in most of our largest economies, including three out of the four BRIC countries. China, with its former one-child policy, will be hit, as well as Brazil and Russia.
在2020年，一些国家仍会有劳动力剩余，例如意大利，法国，美国，但情况在2030年将发生剧烈变化。到了2030年，我们最大的经济体们将面临全球性的劳动力危机，包括四个金砖国家中的三个。中国，采取过独生子女ZC，也将面临这一问题。巴西和俄罗斯也一样。
Now, to tell the truth, in reality, the situation will be even more challenging. What you can see here are average numbers. We de-averaged them and broke them down into different skill levels, and what we found were even higher shortfalls for high-skilled people and a partial surplus for low-skilled workers. So on top of an overall labor shortage, we will face a big skill mismatch in the future, and this means huge challenges in terms of education, qualification, upskilling for governments and companies.
然而，坦率的说，真相是，问题还要更加严峻。这里你们所看到的是平均数字。我们将其去平均化，细分到不同的劳动技能水平，这样我们就会发现高技能劳动力将面临更大缺口，低技能劳动力会有部分剩余。所以在整体性劳动力缺乏的基础上，我们在未来还将面临劳动技能的严重不匹配。这意味着ZF和企业将在教育，资格认证和培训中遇到巨大挑战。
Now, the next thing we looked into was robots, automation, technology. Will technology change this picture and boost productivity? Now, the short answer would be that our numbers already include a significant growth in productivity driven by technology. A long answer would go like this. Let's take Germany again. The Germans have a certain reputation in the world when it comes to productivity.
之后，我们研究了机器人，自动化和科技。科技能否改变这一状况并提高生产力？简单的说，答案是我们的数字已经考虑了科技所能带来的大幅度生产力增长。完整的答案是这样的。再举德国为例。德国人的工作效率在世界上享有特别的声誉。
In the '90s, I worked in our Boston office for almost two years, and when I left, an old senior partner told me, literally, "Send me more of these Germans, they work like machines." (Laughter) That was 1998. Sixteen years later, you'd probably say the opposite. "Send me more of these machines. They work like Germans."
90年代，我在波士顿分部工作了将近两年，我走的时候，一位年长的合伙人跟我说，这是他的原话， “多给我找这样的德国人，干活跟机器似的。”那是1998年。16年后，你听到的可能正相反。“多给我找这种机器，干活跟德国人似的。”
Technology will replace a lot of jobs, regular jobs. Not only in the production industry, but even office workers are in jeopardy and might be replaced by robots, artificial intelligence, big data, or automation. So the key question is not if technology replaces some of these jobs, but when, how fast, and to what extent? Or in other words, will technology help us to solve this global workforce crisis? Yes and no. This is a more sophisticated version of "it depends." (Laughter)
科技将取代很多岗位，普通岗位。不仅在生产领域，办公室白领也面临危机，也有可能被机器人，人工智能，大数据，或自动化取代。所以关键问题不是科技是否会取代某些岗位，而是什么时候取代，取代得多快，取代到什么程度？换句话讲，科技能否帮助我们解决全球性劳动力危机？能，也不能。这是“看情况”的升级版本。
Let's take the automotive industry as an example, because there, more than 40 percent of industrial robots are already working and automation has already taken place. In 1980, less than 10 percent of the production cost of a car was caused by electronic parts. Today, this number is more than 30 percent and it will grow to more than 50 percent by 2030.
以汽车业为例，因为在这个行业中，超过40%的工业机器人已经在工作，自动化也已经实现。1980年，只有不到10%的汽车生产成本是由电子部件产生。今天，这个数字已经超过30%。到2030年，这个数字将上涨到50%以上。
And these new electronic parts and applications require new skills and have created a lot of new jobs, like the cognitive systems engineer who optimizes the interaction between driver and electronic system. In 1980, no one had the slightest clue that such a job would ever exist. As a matter of fact, the overall number of people involved in the production of a car has only changed slightly in the last decades, in spite of robots and automation.
这些新的电子部件和应用需要新的劳动技能并创造了很多新的岗位，例如认知系统工程师，其职责是优化驾驶员与电子系统之间的互动。1980年，没人会想到将出现这种工作。事实上，参与汽车生产的总人数在过去几十年中只有微小的变化，即便出现了机器人和自动化。
So what does this mean? Yes, technology will replace a lot of jobs, but we will also see a lot of new jobs and new skills on the horizon, and that means technology will worsen our overall skill mismatch. And this kind of de-averaging reveals the crucial challenge for governments and businesses.
那这意味着什么呢？的确，科技能取代很多岗位，但未来我们也能看到很多新的岗位和技能，这意味着科技会加剧劳动技能的不匹配。这种反平均化揭示了政府和商业机构面临的关键性挑战。
So people, high-skilled people, talents, will be the big thing in the next decade. If they are the scarce resource, we have to understand them much better. Are they actually willing to work abroad? What are their job preferences?
因此，人，高技能的人群，人才，将是未来十年的重中之重。如果他们是稀缺资源，那我们就要更好的了解他们。他们真的愿意去海外工作么？他们对工作有什么偏好？
To find out, this year we conducted a global survey among more than 200,000 job seekers from 189 countries. Migration is certainly one key measure to close a gap, at least in the short term, so we asked about mobility. More than 60 percent of these 200,000 job seekers are willing to work abroad. For me, a surprisingly high number. If you look at the employees aged 21 to 30, this number is even higher.
为了找到答案，今年我们进行了一项全球调查，对象是来自189个国家的超过20万名求职者。迁移当然是缩小缺口的一个关键性措施，起码短期而言是这样，所以我们问到了流动性。在这20万求职者中，超过60%的人愿意去国外工作。对我而言，这个数字出奇的高。如果只关注21到30岁之间的求职者，那这个数字还要更高。
If you split this number up by country, yes, the world is mobile, but only partly. The least mobile countries are Russia, Germany and the U.S. Now where would these people like to move? Number seven is Australia, where 28 percent could imagine moving. Then France, Switzerland, Germany, Canada, U.K., and the top choice worldwide is the U.S.
如果按国家来看，的确，世界范围的流动性很强，但仅限于部分地区。流动性最低的国家是俄罗斯，德国和米国。那么，这些人想搬去哪儿工作？排在第七位的是澳大利亚，有28%的人打算去那里工作。然后是法国，瑞士，德国，加拿大，英国，世界范围内的首选是米国。
Now, what are the job preferences of these 200,000 people? So, what are they looking for? Out of a list of 26 topics, salary is only number eight. The top four topics are all around culture. Number four, having a great relationship with the boss; three, enjoying a great work-life balance; two, having a great relationship with colleagues; and the top priority worldwide is being appreciated for your work.
那么，这20万人的工作偏好有哪些？他们看重什么？在26项条目中，薪水只排在第八位。前四项都跟文化有关。第四位，与上司保持良好关系；第三位，能够很好的平衡工作和生活；第二位，与同事保持良好关系；而全世界的人最看重的都是，能够做一份体面的工作。
So, do I get a thank you? Not only once a year with the annual bonus payment, but every day. And now, our global workforce crisis becomes very personal. People are looking for recognition. Aren't we all looking for recognition in our jobs?
也就是说，我是否会得到他人的尊重和感激？不是一年一次拿年终奖，而是每一天都如此。如今，我们的全球性劳动力危机已经非常私人化。人们需要获得认可。难道我们在工作中没有寻求认可吗？
Now, let me connect the dots. We will face a global workforce crisis which consists of an overall labor shortage plus a huge skill mismatch, plus a big cultural challenge. And this global workforce crisis is approaching very fast. Right now, we are just at the turning point. So what can we, what can governments, what can companies do?
让我把关键点梳理一下。我们将面临全球性劳动力危机， 包括总体性劳动力缺乏， 外加严重的劳动技能不匹配， 还有巨大的文化挑战。这个全球性劳动力危机已经迫在眉睫。现在，我们正处在一个转折点。那么我们，政府和企业能够做些什么呢？
Every company, but also every country, needs a people strategy, and to act on it immediately, and such a people strategy consists of four parts. Number one, a plan for how to forecast supply and demand for different jobs and different skills. Workforce planning will become more important than financial planning. Two, a plan for how to attract great people: generation Y, women, but also retirees.
每一个企业，以及每一个国家，都需要有人才战略，并立即付诸实施。这样的人才战略分四部分。一，计划如何预测不同岗位和技能的供给和需求。劳动力计划将比财务计划更加重要。二，计划如何吸引高水平人才：Y世代（译注：专指出生于1981-2000年的人），女性，以及退休人士。
Three, a plan for how to educate and upskill them. There's a huge upskilling challenge ahead of us. And four, for how to retain the best people, or in other words, how to realize an appreciation and relationship culture.
三，计划如何对他们进行教育和培训。我们面临着巨大的培训挑战。四，如何留住最好的人才，换句话讲，如何创建一种能够让人获得赏识并建立良好人际关系的文化氛围。
However, one crucial underlying factor is to change our attitudes. Employees are resources, are assets, not costs, not head counts, not machines, not even the Germans.
但是，一个关键的潜在因素是要改变我们的态度。员工是资源，是资产，不是费用，不是人头，不是机器，甚至不是德国人。
Thank you.
谢谢大家。
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