论文快递：第九十期
编者按
Urban Studies 每年投稿量为1000多篇，每年发表16期，共180篇论文左右。由于稿件量大，文章从接收到正式出版周期较长，因此编辑部会在稿件接收排版后的第一时间在网上发布论文全文 (Online First) 。"论文快递" 栏目将同步推出网上刊登的最新论文，方便读者了解Urban Studies的最新动态，敬请关注！
本期为“论文快递”栏目的第九十期，将介绍Urban Studies的5篇online-first论文，主题涵盖门禁社区的入室盗窃和入口控制、悉尼2030可持续发展计划的长期效果探索、综合住房制度的长期解决方案、通过大数据分析可达性与城市房价，以及志愿地理信息在交通和城市研究中的潜力，欢迎阅读。
01
Burglaries and entry controls in gated communities
门禁社区的入室盗窃和入口控制
Zengli Wang（南京林业大学）
以及其他五位共同作者
首次出版时间：2021/1/18｜研究论文
Abstract
This article examines whether different levels of entry controls impact burglary rates in gated communities. It differs from the previous studies that only distinguish gated communities from non-gated communities but ignore important variation in different levels of entry controls. A sample of 698 gated communities in a large Chinese city are selected for this study. A negative binomial regression model estimates the relationships between entry control levels and burglary rates in gated communities. The test of these relationships accounts for the control of other important explanatory variables, including management fee, building height, building age, housing price, house for sale, rental house and floating population. Results indicate that higher entry control levels are associated with significantly lower burglary rates in gated communities. This is the first study that reveals a quantitative relationship between burglary and entry control level in gated communities at the city-wide scale.
摘要
本文研究了不同级别的进入控制是否会影响门禁社区的入室盗窃率。本研究与以前的研究不同，以前的研究只区分门禁社区和非门禁社区，忽略了不同进入控制水平的重要差异。本研究选取了中国一个大城市的698个门禁社区作为样本。我们用一个负二项回归模型估计了门禁社区的进入控制水平与入室盗窃率之间的关系。这些关系的检验考虑了对其他重要解释变量的控制，包括管理费、建筑高度、建筑年限、房价、待售房屋、出租屋和流动人口。结果表明，较高的进入控制水平与门禁社区中较低的入室盗窃率相关。这是第一个在城市范围内揭示门禁社区进入控制水平与入室盗窃之间定量关系的研究。
Keywords
burglary, crime prevention, entry control, gated community, rational choice
关键词
入室盗窃, 犯罪预防, 进入控制, 门禁社区, 理性选择
原文地址
https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020972636
02
Exploring the long-term effect of strategy work: The case of Sustainable Sydney 2030
探索战略工作的长期效果：以“悉尼2030可持续发展计划”为例
Martin Kornberger（英国爱丁堡大学、奥地利维也纳经济贸易大学）
Renate E Meyer（奥地利维也纳经济贸易大学）
Markus A Höllerer（澳大利亚新南威尔士悉尼商学院、奥地利维也纳经济贸易大学）
首次出版时间：2021/1/19｜研究论文
Abstract
Strategy has become an important concern and practical tool in urban management and governance, with the literature highlighting implementation as a hallmark of effective strategy. Whilst such a strategy–action link (which we label here as ‘implementation nexus’) has been well established, other long-term effects have been documented in less detail. Our study of Sustainable Sydney 2030 finds that strategy was effective to the extent to which it changed the institutional a priori of what a collective of actors engaged in city-making knows, what it can articulate and how its members relate to each other. We capture this effect as ‘institution nexus’ and theorise our findings with Ludwik Fleck’s concept of ‘thought style’ of a focal ‘thought collective’– notions that also centrally influenced Mary Douglas’ work on ‘how institutions think’. We contribute to extant research by adding the institution nexus as a long-term effect of urban strategy as well as by advancing strategy theory in urban studies to foreground its ability to shape institutions.
摘要
策略已成为城市管理和治理中的一个重要关注点和实用工具，文献强调实施是有效策略的标志。虽然这种策略-行动联系（我们在这里将其称为“实施联系”）已经得到了很好的确认，但我们对其他长期效果的记录却语焉不详。我们对悉尼2030可持续发展计划 (Sustainable Sydney 2030) 的研究表明，该策略的有效性想等于，它在多大程度上改变了关于以下方面的制度前提：参与城市营造的行为者集体知道些什么，这个集体可以表达什么，以及它的成员如何相互联系。我们将这种效果描述为“制度联系”并将其理论化，我们的理论化基于路德维希·弗莱克 (Ludwik Fleck) 的“思想集体”的“思想风格”的概念，这些概念也是影响了玛丽·道格拉斯 (Mary Douglas) 关于“制度如何思考”的研究的核心概念。我们增加制度联系作为城市策略的长期效果之一，并推进城市研究中的策略理论以突出其塑造制度的能力，从而为现有的研究做出贡献。
Keywords
effect, institution, Sustainable Sydney 2030, thought collective, thought style, urban strategy
关键词
效果, 制度, 悉尼2030可持续发展计划 (Sustainable Sydney 2030), 思想集体, 思想风格, 城市策略
原文地址
https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020979546
03
On the long-run solution to aggregate housing systems
论综合住房制度的长期解决方案
Geoffrey Meen（英国雷丁大学）
Alexander Mihailov（英国雷丁大学）
Yehui Wang（山东财经大学）
首次出版时间：2021/1/24 | 研究论文
Abstract
This paper explores the properties of dynamic aggregate housing models. In conventional models, in response to demand shocks the primary adjustment mechanism is through prices and changes in housing supply. However, the size of the supply response depends on the price elasticity of supply and in countries such as the UK where the elasticity is low, house prices can rise sharply, worsening affordability. But this ignores the roles of housing risk and credit markets which affect the user cost of capital and the paper demonstrates that models that explicitly introduce a housing risk premium have an additional price stabiliser. The importance is shown through stochastic simulations; these simulations also demonstrate that conventional models used for forecasting and policy analysis may overstate future house price growth.
摘要
本文探讨动态集合住宅模型的特征。在传统模型中，为了应对需求冲击，主要的调整机制是通过价格和住房供应的变化。然而，供应反应的规模取决于供应的价格弹性，在英国等弹性较低的国家，房价可能会大幅上涨从而降低可负担性。但这忽略了住房风险和信贷市场的作用，它们影响资本的使用成本，本文证明，明确引入住房风险溢价的模型具有额外的价格稳定因素。重要性通过随机模拟显示；这些模拟还表明，用于预测和政策分析的传统模型可能高估了未来的房价增长。
Keywords
economic processes, finance, housing, affordability, housing risk
关键词
经济过程, 金融, 住房, 可负担性, 住房风险
原文地址
https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020976019
04
Big data, accessibility and urban house prices
大数据、可达性与城市房价
Steven C Bourassa（美国佛罗里达大西洋大学）
以及其他三位共同作者
首次出版时间：2021/1/24｜研究论文
Abstract
Big data applications are attracting increasing interest among urban researchers. One unexplored question is whether the inclusion of big data accessibility indices improves the accuracy of hedonic price models used for residential property valuation. This paper compares a big data index with an index derived from a regional travel demand model developed by local transportation planning agencies and traditional measures of accessibility defined as distances to employment centres. Controls for submarkets and a combined spatial autoregressive and spatial error model are also assessed as tools for capturing the value of location. Using single-family residential transactions from the Miami, Florida, metropolitan area, the study’s main conclusion is that the big data accessibility measure does not add meaningful explanatory or predictive power. In contrast, the spatial autoregressive and error model outperforms the other options considered.
摘要
大数据应用受到了城市研究人员越来越多的关注。一个未被探索的问题是，大数据可达性指数的引入是否提高了用于住宅物业估值的享乐价格模型的准确性。本文比较了两个指数，一个是大数据指数，另一个是从地方交通规划机构开发的区域出行需求模型、以及传统可达性（定义为到就业中心的距离）度量得出的指数。我们还评估了子市场的控制以及空间自回归和空间误差综合模型，作为确定地段价值的工具。使用佛罗里达州迈阿密大都会区的单户住宅交易信息，我们的主要研究结论是，大数据可达性度量并不能显著提高研究的解释力或预测力。相比之下，空间自回归和误差模型优于其他考虑的选项。
Keywords
accessibility indices, big data, hedonic models, property valuation, spatial models
关键词
可达性指数, 大数据, 享乐模型, 房地产估值, 空间模型
原文地址
https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020982508
05
Thinking through people: The potential of volunteered geographic information for mobility and urban studies
以人为本：志愿地理信息在交通和城市研究中的潜力
Lindsay Blair Howe（瑞士苏黎世技术中心）
首次出版时间：2021/1/25｜研究论文
Abstract
Despite the ‘mobility turn’ in urban studies, there is surprisingly little research into the role people’s everyday movements play in driving urbanisation processes. As this paper discusses, one reason this has not occurred is because understanding this relationship requires both quantitative and qualitative knowledge, including geospatial locations and patterns as well as why people choose to move the way they do. Few studies employ mixed methods to this end; instead, many quantitative approaches focus on the use of big data and many qualitative approaches remain focused on sites themselves rather than the movements between them. This methodological gap can preclude operationalising findings and proves particularly detrimental when research is conducted into areas with high levels of poverty and inequality. In response, this paper presents a mixed-methods approach to studying urbanisation, using volunteered geographic information (VGI) to map regional-scale movements in the Gauteng City-Region (GCR). Exploiting the potential of smartphone technology, this methodology operates at the interstice of quantitative and qualitative research, describing both macro-scale mobility patterns and the micro-scale decisions behind them. Using the case study of the GCR, it highlights movement as a strategy for those living in poverty, who can utilise the entire region as a resource to subvert entrenched inequality. ‘Thinking through people’ suggests that a new ontology of categories describing urbanisation processes in terms of movement could connect empirical research into poverty and inequality to theory, and be used to create an epistemology of the urban from below. Thus, this paper contributes to advances in urban studies methods as well as to debates on urbanisation, relational poverty and socio-spatial inequality.
摘要
尽管城市研究出现了“流动转向”，但令人惊讶的是，对于人们的日常流动在推动城市化进程中所起的作用却鲜有研究。如本文所述，这方面研究不多的一个原因是，理解这种关系需要同时具备定量和定性两方面的知识，包括地理空间位置和规律，以及为什么人们选择某种方式流动。很少有研究为此目的采用结合方法；相反，许多定量方法侧重于大数据的使用，许多定性方法仍然侧重于地点本身，而不是人们在地点之间的流动。这种方法上的差距可能会妨碍调查结果的可操作性，并且，在对贫困和不平等程度高的地区进行研究时，这种差距尤其有害。作为回应，本文提出了一种结合方法来研究城市化，使用志愿地理信息 (VGI) 来绘制豪登城市地区(GCR) 的区域层面人员流动地图。这种方法利用智能手机技术的潜力，在定量和定性研究之间开辟交叉领域，描述了宏观层面的流动规律及其背后的微观层面决策。基于对GCR的案例研究，本文强调流动是生活贫困者的一种战略，他们可以利用整个地区作为摆脱根深蒂固的不平等的资源。“从人的角度思考”表明，一种从流动的角度描述城市化进程的新的范畴本体论可以将贫困和不平等的实证研究与理论联系起来，并被用于自下而上地创建一种城市认识论。因此，本文有助于城市研究方法的进步以及关于城市化、关系性贫困和社会空间不平等的辩论。
Keywords
informality, method, mobility, planning, poverty/exclusion, transport, volunteered geographic information
关键词
非正规性, 方法, 流动, 规划, 贫困/排斥, 交通, 志愿地理信息
原文地址
https://doi.org/10.1177/0042098020982251
扫码关注我们
微信号｜USJ_online
Urban Studies期刊官方微信公众号