国际禁运联盟、供应链中断风险与我国宏观经济易损性——以芯片为例

Embargo Alliance, Supply Chain Disruption and China’s Macroeconomic Vulnerability: Taking Chips as an Example

《财经研究》2022年48卷第12期 页码：92 -105,165 online：2022年12月3日

作者

中：崔连标1 , 翁世梅1 , 莫建雷2 , 宋马林1 , 夏炎2

英：Cui Lianbiao1, Weng Shimei1, Mo Jianlei2, Song Malin1, Xia Yan2

作者单位：1. 安徽财经大学 统计与应用数学学院，安徽 蚌埠 233000; 2. 中国科学院 科技战略咨询研究院，北京 100190

摘要及关键词

摘要：美国近期试图构建联盟以不断强化对我国的技术封锁，而芯片作为高科技的核心载体，是中美竞争的主战场。文章首次考虑美国构建对华禁运联盟背景下中国面临的芯片供应链中断风险，定量测算芯片进口中断对中国宏观经济的易损性及其影响边界。文章构建了全球13个区域、12个部门的动态可计算一般均衡模型，模拟不同芯片禁运联盟对世界主要经济体的经济冲击影响。研究发现：（1）美国单独实施芯片禁运对中国影响有限，但如果将韩国等经济体纳入其联盟中，中国经济将会遭受显著的负面冲击。（2）在芯片进口完全中断的极端情景下，中国当年实际GDP下降0.49%，出口减少8.02%，就业下降0.18%，失业人数增加约136.35万人。（3）受贸易转移效应影响，美国主导的对华芯片禁运联盟对联盟内外的经济影响具有显著的异质性，即联盟内部将会受损，联盟外部将会受益。（4）芯片禁运联盟对其内部成员的经济影响也具有显著的非对称性，如果韩国等经济体加入该联盟，其遭受的经济和就业损失将显著高于美国。（5）中国对芯片产业的补贴政策有助于减轻美国芯片禁运对国内经济造成的负面影响。文章首次揭示了芯片进口中断对中国经济的影响边界，为中国应对美国的高科技打压提供决策参考。

关键词：芯片贸易; 禁运联盟; 供应链中断; 经济易损性; 动态可计算一般均衡模型

Summary: The United States is trying to build up an alliance to continuously strengthen the technological blockade against China. Chips, as the core carrier of high technology, constitute the main battlefield in the Sino-US competition. Under the context of an embargo alliance forged by the United States against China and the risk of chip supply chain disruption confronting the world’s second largest economy, it is of great significance to quantitatively evaluate the vulnerability of China’s macro-economy and its impact on the border of chip import disruption. This paper develops a dynamic computable general equilibrium model consisting of 13 regions and 12 sectors around the world to make a simulation study of this issue. Simulation results show that the implementation of chip embargo imposed by the United States alone tends to have a limited impact on the Chinese economy, but when Taiwan Province of China and South Korea join the chip embargo alliance, the Chinese economy will suffer huge losses. Under the extreme scenario of complete interruption of chip imports, China’s real GDP will decrease by about 0.49%, with exports and employment declining by 8.02% and 0.18%, respectively. Worse still, the number of unemployed people will soar by about 1.36 million. Due to the trade transfer effect, there is significant heterogeneity in the economic impact of chip embargo alliance for countries and regions inside and outside the alliance. Specifically, members of the alliance will lose, while its non-members will benefit from the US-led chip embargo alliance. Moreover, the economic impact of the chip embargo alliance on its members is also asymmetric. Specifically, if Taiwan Province of China and South Korea join the US-led chip embargo alliance, their economies will sustain heavier losses than the United States. In addition, this paper also finds that China’s subsidy policy for the chip industry may help to alleviate the negative impact of the US chip embargo on the Chinese economy. This paper makes the following contributions: First, it is the first-ever one that evaluates the macroeconomic impact of the US-led chip embargo on China from the perspective of the alliance of major powers. This paper analyzes the evolution trend and law of the embargo in time dimension, revealing the impact boundary of chip supply and the pressure of China’s economic system. Second, it is the first study that analyzes the regional spillover effect of the chip embargo from the perspective of space trade transfer. Furthermore, this paper also estimates the trade transfer effect between relevant countries/regions and China under different scenarios and corresponding benefits and losses. Third, it introduces the concept of “virtual tariff cost” into the international trade model, and quantitatively depicts the interruption of chip imports caused by the intervention of national administrative forces, which better captures the non-market behavior in the chip embargo.

Key words:chip trade; embargo alliance; supply chain disruption; economic vulnerability; dynamic computable general equilibrium model

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20220915.201

收稿日期：2022-04-15

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（71974001，71974183）；中国科学院青年创新促进会项目（2021150）；中国科学院战略性先导科技专项（XDA2001010202）；安徽省自然科学基金（2108085Y24）；安徽省高校优秀拔尖人才项目（gxyqZD2020087）

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