养好老才能生好小：父辈养老投资与青年子女生育决策

Only by Supporting the Elderly Well can We Dare to Have Children: Parents’ Pension Investment and Fertility Decision-making of the Younger Generation

《财经研究》2023年49卷第1期 页码：109 - 123 online：2023年1月3日

作者

中：何圆 , 李轲 , 王伊攀

英：He Yuan, Li Ke, Wang Yipan

作者单位：山东工商学院 金融学院, 山东 烟台 264005

摘要及关键词

摘要：超低生育率已成为中国社会面临的重大挑战，单纯依靠放松生育政策来刺激生育率的作用相对有限，还需要从育龄家庭资源代际分配的真实约束出发来探寻提升生育意愿的配套措施。文章基于中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）微观数据，从育龄家庭孝亲和抚幼叠加压力的视角考察了父辈养老投资情况对青年子女生育决策的代际影响。结果表明，父辈参与正规养老投资和不参与相比，子代生育概率将显著提高5—7个百分点，说明子代会根据对父辈的赡养压力来决定是否生育，从而缓解孝亲和抚幼的叠加压力。同时，文章并未发现父辈参与非正规养老投资有此作用。在作用机制上，父辈参与正规养老投资可能获得的养老保障和激发出的自我养老规划能力能够减少子代对其的经济支持，削弱子代孝亲对抚幼的挤出效应，从而提高子代的生育概率。父辈参与正规养老投资来自我养老对子代生育的代际效应在丈夫不参与育儿、女性在非国有部门工作、工作单位不提供生育保险和生育机会成本较高的子代中体现得更为明显，具有更大的促进作用。文章研究表明，在当前育儿压力加大和生育机会成本较高的情况下，父辈参与正规金融投资进行自我养老具有明显的“溢出效应”，依靠金融手段的养老既能保障老年人的福利水平，又能在客观上提高生育率。

关键词：养老投资；生育决策；隔代抚育；养育负担

Summary: The ultra-low fertility rate has become a major challenge faced by the Chinese society. The effect of simply relying on the relaxation of the fertility policy to stimulate the fertility rate is relatively limited. It is also necessary to explore supporting measures to increase the willingness to bear children from the real constraints of the inter-generational distribution of resources for families of childbearing age. The pressure of filial piety and raising children is an important factor in the decision-making of every childbearing age family. Grasping the key points of filial piety and raising children at the same time can not only provide ideas for effectively improving China’s fertility rate, but also provide support for enhancing family development capabilities. From the perspective of the superimposed pressure of filial piety and raising children, it is more in line with the real constraints faced by families of childbearing age in fertility decision-making, which fully explains the inter-generational impact on the fertility decision-making of young children, and broadens the research dimension of the influencing factors of fertility decision-making. Based on the above background, this paper empirically examines the inter-generational impact of parental pension investment on young children’s fertility decision-making using the data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS). The conclusions are as follows: First, parents’ participation in formal pension investment has a significant effect on the fertility decision-making of young children, and it is not found that parents’ participation in informal pension investment has this effect. Second, the old-age security that parents may obtain by participating in formal old-age investment and the ability to stimulate self-pension planning can reduce the financial support of the offspring, thereby reducing the crowding-out effect of the offspring’s filial piety on childcare and improving the offspring’s fertility probability. Third, the inter-generational effect of parents’ participation in formal pension investment and self-care on offspring fertility is more obvious in the offspring whose husbands do not participate in childcare, women work in non-state-owned sectors, work units do not provide maternity insurance, and fertility opportunity costs are higher, which has a greater promotion effect. To better improve the low fertility level, this paper puts forward the following suggestions: First, reduce filial piety costs by speeding up the construction of the third pillar of pensions. Second, reduce female fertility costs by improving social childcare services, and earnestly pay attention to women’s social welfare. Third, ease the pressure on families of childbearing age through social childcare services.

Key words:pension investment; fertility decision-making; raising grandchildren; parenting burden

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20221022.401

收稿日期：2022-06-20

基金项目：国家社会科学基金青年项目(17CRK016)

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