城市电商化发展能否实现稳就业？

Can the Development of Urban E-commerce Achieve Employment Stability?

《财经研究》2023年49卷第1期 页码：139 - 153 online：2023年1月3日

作者

中：谢文栋

英：Xie Wendong

作者单位：上海财经大学 公共经济与管理学院, 上海 200433

摘要及关键词

摘要：稳就业是经济运行保持在合理区间的关键支撑。文章以国家电子商务示范城市建设作为准自然实验，运用双重差分模型和空间杜宾模型探讨了电子商务发展对城市就业水平的影响、作用机制和空间溢出效应。研究发现，国家电子商务示范城市建设显著提升了城市就业水平，并且该提升效应在第二产业、第三产业、高互联网发展水平城市和低经济发展水平城市更为显著，同时在东部和中西部地区城市中均有显著的就业提升效应。作用机制检验发现，城市创业活跃度和生产性服务业集聚是国家电子商务示范城市建设提升城市就业水平的主要途径。进一步采用空间杜宾模型检验发现，国家电子商务示范城市建设发挥了较强的示范效应，在促进示范城市就业水平提升的同时，也对周边城市、相邻城市和经济发展水平相似城市就业水平产生了积极作用，具有正向的空间溢出效应。文章的研究结论为经济新常态下如何发挥电子商务在稳就业中的促进作用提供了经验证据和政策启示。

关键词：稳就业；电子商务；双重差分法；影响机制；溢出效应

Summary: Employment stability is an important guarantee to support China’s economic development and an important basis for promoting common prosperity. In the face of the increasingly complex international situation and domestic economic operation pressure, how to maintain regional employment stability is a major challenge facing the society and the government at present. As a new development mode, e-commerce plays an important role in promoting the upgrading of industrial structures and enhancing the vitality of economic development. At the same time, it provides new ideas for promoting urban employment. Therefore, discussing the impact of e-commerce development on urban employment is of great practical significance for further expanding employment space and achieving more full and high-quality employment. Based on the quasi-natural experiment of the construction of national e-commerce demonstration cities (CNEDC), this paper evaluates the impact of the CNEDC on urban employment using urban panel data and the DID method. The study finds that: First, the CNEDC can significantly improve the urban employment level. Second, the employment promotion effect of the CNEDC is more significant in secondary and tertiary industries, in cities with a high internet development level, and in cities with a low economic development level. At the same time, it has a significant promotion effect in eastern and mid-western cities. Third, the activity of urban entrepreneurship and the agglomeration of producer services are the main impact mechanisms of the CNEDC to improve the urban employment level. Fourth, the CNEDC has a positive spatial spillover effect, which enhances the employment level in demonstration cities and also enhances the employment level in neighboring cities, adjacent cities, and economically similar cities. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: First, compared with previous studies which use a single indicator or a composite index to measure the level of urban e-commerce development, it uses the exogenous policy shock of the CNEDC to avoid the estimation bias caused by endogenous problems such as measurement error and reverse causality. Second, it discusses the impact mechanism of the CNEDC on urban employment, deepens the internal logical relationship between the CNEDC and urban employment, and examines the spillover effect of the CNEDC on the employment level of other cities. Third, it provides an empirical basis for exerting the employment absorption effect of e-commerce development under the new normal of the economy, and also provides new policy ideas for achieving regional stable employment, expanding employment channels, and strengthening employment priority policies.

Key words:employment stability; e-commerce; DID; impact mechanism; spillover effect

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20221014.401

收稿日期：2022-07-10

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（72274118）

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