城市政府补助政策的多维减贫效应评估

Evaluation on the Multidimensional Poverty-reduction Policy Effect of Urban Government Subsidies

《财经研究》2023年49卷第4期 页码：65 - 78 online：2023年4月3日

作者

中：许玲丽 , 陈云菲

英：Xu Lingli, Chen Yunfei

作者单位：上海大学 经济学院，上海 200444

摘要及关键词

摘要：2020年底我国取得脱贫攻坚全面胜利，目前的主要任务是在巩固已有成果的基础上，构建防贫长效机制，推进共同富裕。文章基于中国家庭追踪调查数据，评估了“十三五”时期城市政府补助的相关减贫政策效果。文章选取贫困度量指标来测度城市的相对贫困状况和收入分配特征，采用模糊断点回归方法，研究了城市政府补助政策对城市贫困人口收入、支出、劳动供给、人力资本以及主观福利的影响。研究发现，基于相对贫困指标计算的城市贫困率、贫困强度和深度均呈现下降趋势，城市收入分配有所改善；从收入和支出角度来看，城市政府补助对低收入居民发挥了“授人以鱼”的作用，特别是在经营性收入、财产性收入和个人工作收入方面；此外，城市政府补助对一些人群发挥了“授人以渔”的作用，显著提高了低收入男性和中部地区低收入居民的就业概率，增加了低收入女性的人力资本投资。政府补助还显著提高了低收入女性和西部地区低收入居民的主观福利。因此，需要进一步完善城市收入再分配体系，探索推动城市贫困救助从“粗放”模式向“精准”模式转换，建立针对不同群体的差异化城市防贫体系与动态监测系统，有效缓解相对贫困，形成防贫内生机制，为共同富裕奠定坚实的制度基础和基本保障。

关键词：政府补助；模糊断点回归；低保；政策效应评估

Summary: China has achieved a comprehensive victory in poverty alleviation by the end of 2020. The main task now is to build a long-term mechanism to prevent poverty and promote common prosperity on the basis of consolidating the existing achievements. For cities, to grasp the characteristics of urban poverty and understand the effect of relevant poverty-alleviation policies is an important premise for improving the income redistribution system and promoting the establishment of a long-term mechanism to prevent urban poverty. Based on the data of CFPS, this paper evaluates the effect of urban government subsidies on poverty-reduction policies during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Poverty indicators are selected to measure the relative poverty situation and income distribution characteristics of cities, and the FRD method is adopted to evaluate the impact of urban government subsidy policies on the income, expenditure, labor supply, human capital and subjective welfare of the urban low-income population. The study finds that the urban poverty rate, intensity and depth, calculated based on the relative poverty index, all show a downward trend, and urban income distribution is improved. The urban government subsidy plays the role of giving fish to low-income residents: It significantly increases the business income, property income and individual work income of low-income families. The consumption structure of households receiving the subsidy is improved, particularly in central and western regions. The urban government subsidy also plays a role in teaching some people to fish: It significantly increases the employment probability of low-income men and low-income residents in the central region, and plays a positive role in improving the human capital of low-income women and people in poverty due to schooling. Meanwhile, the subsidy significantly improves the subjective welfare of low-income women and low-income residents in the western region. Therefore, we should further improve the urban income redistribution system, promote the transformation of urban poverty relief from the “extensive” mode to the “precise” mode, and establish a differentiated urban poverty-prevention system and dynamic monitoring system for different groups, so as to effectively alleviate relative poverty, form an internal poverty-prevention mechanism, and lay a solid institutional foundation and basic guarantee for common prosperity. The main contributions of this paper are as follows: First, the change trend and distribution characteristics of urban poverty are measured by relevant poverty statistics indicators. Second, it makes an in-depth analysis of policy objectives, successively studying the poverty-reduction policy effect of urban income redistribution projects from three levels: whether urban government subsidies give people fish (income and consumption), whether urban government subsidies teach people to fish (labor supply and human capital investment), and whether urban government subsidies ultimately help people to achieve happiness (subjective welfare). Third, refined policy recommendations are proposed by analyzing the heterogeneity of population, regions and poverty causes.

Key words: government subsidies; fuzzy RDD; Dibao; evaluation on the policy effect

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20221016.101

收稿日期：2021-12-28

基金项目：上海市哲学社会科学规划课题一般项目（2019BJB020）

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