互联网普及对传染病的影响机理与实证研究

The Influence Mechanism and Empirical Study of the Internet Popularization on Infectious Diseases

《财经研究》2023年49卷第4期 页码：154 - 168 online：2023年4月3日

作者

中：余东升1 , 余娟娟2

英：Yu Dongsheng1, Yu Juanjuan2

作者单位：1. 中南财经政法大学 统计与数学学院，湖北 武汉 430073; 2. 中南财经政法大学 经济学院，湖北 武汉 430073

摘要及关键词

摘要：互联网减少了人与人之间“面对面”的接触传播，但同时也增加了人与人之间的网络关联。那么，互联网如何影响传染病的传播呢？文章利用2009—2018年中国31个省份的卫生面板数据以及新冠疫情数据，运用GMM模型，实证考察了互联网普及水平对甲乙类传染病发病率的影响，并进行了地区异质性分析。研究结论表明：（1）互联网普及水平的提升能够降低甲乙类传染病的发病率，对传染病传播存在显著的抑制作用，并且有助于传染病的防控。（2）由于不同地区、城乡和用户结构之间存在显著的“数字鸿沟”，这导致互联网普及水平在抑制甲乙类传染病传播效应上存在显著的异质性。（3）互联网通过“源头预防”“过程控制”和“事后治理”三个阶段降低了传染病的传播，这种积极作用具体是通过扩大数字化办公市场规模，减少“面对面”接触以及增加线上问诊次数和疾病预防控制中心数量等多种途径来实现。文章的结论为我们认识互联网在新冠疫情中的潜在作用提供了参考借鉴，也为传染病防控工作中基于互联网普及的“智慧防疫”和“智慧防控”建设提供了政策支持。

关键词：联网普及；传染病；“面对面”接触；“数字鸿沟”

Summary: The Internet reduces the contact between people, but it also increases the connection between people. The COVID-19 epidemic has aroused great concern and discussion from all walks of life about the Internet and infectious diseases, but there is a lack of relevant research on the relationship between the Internet and infectious diseases. Based on the background of the COVID-19 epidemic, this paper uses the health panel data of 31 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2018 and the COVID-19 epidemic data to empirically investigate the impact of the Internet penetration on the incidence rate of Class A and B infectious diseases. This inhibition has significant heterogeneity between different regions, urban and rural areas, and different user structures. The popularity of the Internet has reduced the spread of infectious diseases through the three stages of “source prevention” “process control” and “post-mortem treatment”. This positive role is achieved through expanding the scale of the digital office market, reducing “face-to-face” contacts, and increasing the number of online consultations and the number of disease prevention and control centers. The marginal contributions of this paper are as follows: First, little literature studies the relationship between the Internet and infectious diseases. This paper takes the lead in exploring the impact of the Internet on infectious diseases and its mechanism from both theoretical and empirical levels, which helps us to control the spread of infectious diseases from the source. Second, based on the characteristics of the “digital gap” between different regions, urban and rural areas, and different users of the Internet in China, this paper makes an in-depth study on the heterogeneity of the impact of the Internet popularization on infectious diseases, which is conducive to China’s “precise measures” in future Internet development and public health governance. This paper provides a reference for us to understand the potential role of the Internet in the COVID-19 epidemic, and also provides policy support for the construction of “smart epidemic prevention” and “smart prevention and control” based on the Internet popularization in infectious disease prevention and control.

Key words:Internet popularization; infectious diseases; “face-to-face” contacts; “digital gap”

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20221217.402

收稿日期：2022-09-07

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目（20BJL053）

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