债务扩张、劳动力职业选择与人力资本配置

Debt Expansion, Labor Occupation Choice and Human Capital Allocation

《财经研究》2023年49卷第5期 页码：124 - 139 online：2023年5月3日

作者

中：邵文波1 , 李睿1 , 施炳展2

英：Shao Wenbo1, Li Rui1, Shi Bingzhan2

作者单位：1. 上海大学 经济学院, 上海 201900; 2. 南开大学 经济学院, 天津 300071

摘要及关键词

摘要：近年来，高技能劳动力大量涌入公共部门和以金融机构为代表的非生产性国有企业，而以制造业为代表的实体部门却出现人才短缺问题。这种人力资本错配值得重点关注，已有研究主要从劳动报酬和行业垄断等角度展开，而文章主要考察基于土地财政的地方政府债务扩张对劳动力职业选择和人力资本所产生的影响。首先，在理论上运用模型证明地方政府的债务扩张会扩大公共部门规模，并通过直接和间接两种效应吸引劳动力进入。“学历门槛”和薪酬考核的非市场化会导致公共部门对高技能劳动力形成“虹吸”效应，并引致人力资本错配。其次，在实证上，文章使用中国家庭追踪调查（CFPS）数据，将地方政府债务数据分为显性和隐性两大类，通过多种计量方法分析发现：随着地方政府债务扩张和规模扩大，高技能劳动力在职业选择上更倾向于公共部门和金融行业，相对于实体部门会形成工资差距，导致人力资本错配；进一步将所有行业区分为公共部门、国有企业和私营企业发现，地方政府债务扩张加速会吸引更多高技能劳动力进入公共部门和国有企业，导致人力资本过剩。实证中还发现，提高市场化程度可以有效抑制上述影响。该结论一定程度上解释了当前劳动力职业选择倾向公共部门的原因，为规范和控制地方政府举债，逐步摆脱土地财政提供了新的证据，也拓展了解决人力资本错配问题的思路。

关键词：土地财政；金融行业；职业选择；人力资本错配

Summary: In recent years, a large number of highly skilled workers have poured into the public sector and non-productive monopoly state-owned enterprises represented by financial institutions, resulting in a high concentration of human capital in these sectors. On the contrary, the physical sector represented by manufacturing industry has a talent shortage. This mismatch of human capital deserves special attention, especially in the critical period of China’s economic transformation from high-speed growth to high-quality development. To achieve the goal of building a powerful manufacturing country and advanced manufacturing industry, innovation is required, and talent strategy is fundamental. The existing studies are mainly carried out from the perspectives of labor remuneration and industrial monopoly, but there is one fact that cannot be explained: On the one hand, with the deepening of reform, the wage formulation of public sectors and state-owned enterprises is becoming more and more market-oriented, and monopoly and power rent-seeking are also gradually weakened; on the other hand, the labor occupation choice is biased towards these sectors, resulting in the increasingly serious problem of human capital mismatch. This paper concerns that the debt expansion of local governments based on land finance may be an important reason for the above problems. First, the model is used to prove that the debt expansion of local governments will expand the scale of public sectors and financial industry, and attract labor force through direct and indirect effects. Due to the existence of “entry threshold” in these sectors and the failure of compensation system marketization, the “siphon” effect of these sectors on highly skilled labor force has led to the mismatch of human capital with physical sectors. Second, using the data of China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) and dividing local government debt into explicit and implicit categories, it is found that with the debt expansion of local governments, the highly skilled labor force is more inclined to public sectors and financial industry in terms of the occupation choice, and will form a wage gap compared with physical sectors, resulting in human capital mismatch. Classifying all the industry into public sectors, state-owned enterprises and private enterprises, it is found that with the acceleration of the debt expansion of local governments, more skilled labor will be attracted to public sectors and state-owned enterprises, resulting in excess human capital. Further research also finds that the improvement of regional marketization can effectively curb the above effects. This conclusion, to some extent, explains the reason why the current occupation choice of labor force tends to public sectors, which provides new evidence for regulating and controlling local government debt, and expands the solution to the problem of human capital mismatch from different angles.

Key words:land finance; financial industry; occupation choice; human capital mismatch

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230221.305

收稿日期：2022-07-26

基金项目： 上海市哲学社会科学一般项目（2020BJL004）；国家自然科学基金面上项目（72073092）

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