国内外工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响分析
国内外工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响分析
The Impact of Domestic and Foreign Industrial Robot Applications on Manufacturing Employment
《财经研究》2023年49卷第7期 页码：19 - 33 online：2023年7月3日
作者
中：林欣 , 李春顶
英：Lin Xin, Li Chunding
作者单位：中国农业大学 经济管理学院，北京 100083
摘要及关键词
摘要：工业自动化技术的快速发展究竟会带来“人机共存”还是“机器换人”？已有学者围绕这一话题对中国工业机器人应用与就业的关系展开了讨论。然而在全球价值链和各国竞相发展人工智能产业的背景下，参与全球化生产分工使得国外机器人应用也会对中国就业产生影响。文章先构建了多国多部门的李嘉图贸易模型，通过对劳动力就业变化进行结构分解，分析国内外机器人应用对中国产生的就业效应。然后利用人口普查微观数据、IFR机器人数据和WIOD投入产出数据，基于Shift-Share思想检验了国内外工业机器人应用对我国地级市制造业劳动力就业的影响。基准回归和稳健性检验的估计结果表明，国内机器人产生的补偿效应要大于替代效应，因而会促进地区制造业劳动力就业，而国外机器人经中间品贸易渠道会对制造业就业产生补偿效应，经最终品贸易渠道会对制造业就业产生替代效应。此外，异质性分析发现，国内外工业机器人应用对就业的影响存在个体异质性、行业异质性以及区域异质性。进一步研究得出，国外机器人应用主要是通过改变地区的出口贸易结构而影响劳动力就业。文章的研究结论对客观评估机器人与劳动力就业的关系、制定机器人产业发展政策和提高制造业国际分工地位具有一定的指导意义。
关键词：机器人；制造业就业；国际分工；Shift-Share
Summary: Will the rapid development of industrial automation technology bring about “human-machine coexistence” or “machine replacement”? Scholars have extensively discussed the relationship between the application of industrial robots and employment in China around this topic. However, in the context of the global value chain and the competitive development of artificial intelligence industries by various countries, China cannot avoid being influenced by foreign robot applications while participating in global production division. This paper first constructs a multi-country and multi-sector Ricardian trade model to show that domestic robot applications have both substitution and compensation effects on labor, and foreign robot applications through trade channels will also have similar effects. Second, using microdata from population censuses, IFR robot data, and WIOD input-output data, this paper applies the Shift-Share method to investigate the impact of domestic and foreign industrial robot applications on employment in Chinese prefecture-level manufacturing industries. The estimation results based on benchmark regressions and robustness tests show that: The compensation effect of domestic robots is greater than the substitution effect, thus promoting regional manufacturing employment; while foreign robot applications have a compensation effect on manufacturing employment through intermediate goods trade channels, but a substitution effect on manufacturing employment through final goods trade channels. Additionally, the study finds that the impact of domestic and foreign industrial robot applications on employment is subject to individual heterogeneity, industry heterogeneity, and regional heterogeneity. Further research reveals that foreign robot applications mainly affect labor employment by changing the export trade structure of regions. These research findings have certain guiding significance for objectively assessing the impact of robots on employment, formulating policies for the development of the robot industry, and improving the international division of labor in manufacturing.
Key words: robots; manufacturing employment; international division of labor; Shift-Share
其他信息
DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230316.203
收稿日期：2022-09-17
基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目（20&ZD119）
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