农业风险冲击、农业保险保障与农村居民收入不平等

Agricultural Risk Shocks, Agricultural Insurance, and Income Inequality of Rural Residents

《财经研究》2023年49卷第7期 页码：78 - 92 online：2023年7月3日

作者

中：邵全权 , 刘宇

英：Shao Quanquan, Liu Yu

作者单位：南开大学 金融学院，天津 300350

摘要及关键词

摘要：收入不平等关系农民福利、获得感与满足感，解决农民收入不平等问题尤为重要，那么农业保险是否能降低农民收入不平等问题？这是一个值得关注的话题。文章基于Kesten分布，建立农村家庭收入模型，引入风险乘子与保险乘子，通过数值模拟来研究灾害损失、农业保险保障、补贴以及农险市场结构对农村家庭收入的洛伦兹曲线和基尼系数的影响。研究发现，上述因素对基尼系数存在线性影响，农业灾害会提高收入不平等，农业保险补贴的提高和事前异质性的降低可以减轻收入不平等。另外，文章运用2011—2020年省级面板数据进行检验，单方程回归和联立方程回归证实了灾害损失会提高农村居民收入不平等，农业保险保障、农业保险补贴和事前同质性能降低收入不平等。同时，面板门槛回归发现了上述变量间的关系存在异质性，而面板分位数回归进一步发现事前收入越公平，保险越发达，越有利于降低收入不平等。文章结论可以有针对性地指导农业保险“扶贫攻坚”，改善分配工作，帮助农业保险更好地发挥保险保障和金融服务实体的功效。

关键词：农业风险冲击；农业保险；农民收入不平等

Summary: China’s agricultural sector has been experiencing rapid growth in recent years, but the income distribution gap among farmers has become increasingly noticeable. To address this issue, agricultural insurance has emerged as a critical security system for agricultural production. It can provide protection against natural disasters, guaranteeing timely insurance compensation for farmers in such instances. However, the impact of agricultural risk on farmers’ income inequality and the role of insurance in alleviating this inequality deserve more scholarly attention. While existing literature focuses mainly on the urban-rural income gap, research on income distribution among farmers is comparatively lacking. Against this background, this paper aims to theoretically and practically explore this under-examined aspect. Our study is founded on the Kesten distribution model, which establishes a theoretical income model for rural households and incorporates risk and insurance multipliers. To examine the impact of disaster losses, insurance coverage, subsidies and insurance market structure on rural income distribution, we conduct numerical simulations and evaluate the Lorenz curve and Gini coefficient. The empirical research uses provincial panel data from 2011 to 2020 and applies various models (single equation model, simultaneous equation model, panel threshold model, and panel quantile model) to test our hypotheses and ensure the robustness and effectiveness of our results. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The increase of risk loss probability and loss degree will increase the Gini coefficient, and the increase of agricultural insurance subsidies will reduce the Gini coefficient. (2) The relationship between the degree of agricultural insurance coverage and the Gini coefficient depends on the net effect of insurance coverage on farmers’ income changes. When the net effect of insurance coverage reduces income changes, it will promote income equality. When the net effect of the degree of security increases income changes, it will aggravate income inequality. (3) The lower the initial difference between individual farmers, the more agricultural insurance is conducive to promoting income equality. The contributions of this paper are as follows: (1) At the theoretical level, the general model of Sargent and Stachurski (2021) on income is set as a model that can be used to study the impact of agricultural risk and agricultural insurance on rural household income in China, which provides a reference for similar research in the future. (2) At the empirical level, it enriches the research on the relationship between agricultural insurance and the income gap of rural residents, and comprehensively discusses the important impact of agricultural insurance on improving the income gap of rural residents. (3) At the practical level, the conclusions can be used to guide the poverty alleviation of agricultural insurance, improve the distribution work, and help agricultural insurance to better play the role of insurance protection and financial service entities.

Key words: agricultural risk shocks; agricultural insurance; farmers’ income inequality

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230418.403

收稿日期：2022-10-14

基金项目：天津市哲学社会科学规划课题项目（TJYJ18-002）

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