地方政府债务治理与实体企业系统性风险

Local Government Debt Governance and Real Enterprises’ Systemic Risk

《财经研究》2023年49卷第8期 页码：49 - 63 online：2023年8月3日

作者

中：李小林1 , 董礼媛1 , 司登奎2

英：Li Xiaolin1, Dong Liyuan1, Si Dengkui2

作者单位：1. 中国海洋大学 经济学院，山东 青岛 266100; 2. 青岛大学 经济学院，山东 青岛 266071

摘要及关键词

摘要：在需求收缩、供给冲击和预期转弱三重压力叠加的复杂形势下，妥善处置地方政府债务问题、牢牢守住不发生系统性风险的底线是确保当前我国经济稳定和发展安全的关键。文章以2010—2020年我国非金融上市公司年度数据为样本，采用2015年新《预算法》的正式施行作为外生政策冲击构造准自然实验，深入考察了地方政府债务治理对实体企业系统性风险的影响效应及作用机制。研究结果表明，地方政府债务治理通过杠杆失衡机制和信用关联机制，有效降低了实体企业的信贷错配、过度负债及杠杆操纵水平，显著弱化了实体企业间的担保关联和因影子银行与金融化活动引致的信用风险关联，从而有力缓释了实体企业的系统性风险。这一效应在政府隐性担保强、金融监管程度弱及城投债务期限长的地区尤为明显。经济后果上，地方政府债务治理对实体企业系统性风险的积极缓释效应，最终有利于促进企业经营业绩的平稳增长。文章的研究揭示了地方政府债务治理具有防范化解系统性风险以及消除经济增长隐患的重要政策效果，对于深化地方政府债务治理改革和防范化解重大经济金融风险具有重要理论启示。

关键词：地方政府债务治理；实体企业系统性风险；杠杆失衡；信用关联；稳增长

Summary: To resolutely curb the disorderly expansion of local government debt and prevent and resolve major economic and financial risks, China has deployed a series of reform measures on local government debt governance. Existing studies mainly focus on the impact of debt governance on the scale and structure of local government debt and the investment and financing behavior of non-financial firms. In the current period, as one of the important sources of systemic risks, what is the relationship between real enterprises and local government debt? Does local government debt governance help to mitigate real enterprises’ systemic risks? Clarifying these questions is of great importance for comprehensively understanding the policy effect of the local government debt governance system reform, deeply understanding the generation and evolution logic of systemic risks in the real economy, and preventing the excessive accumulation of real enterprises’ systemic risks from threatening economic stability and growth. This paper takes the formal implementation of the new Budget Law in 2015 as a quasi-natural experiment, uses the annual data of China’s non-financial listed firms from 2010 to 2020, adopts the DID model, and empirically examines the impact and its mechanism of local government debt governance on real enterprises’ systemic risks. The results show that local government debt governance effectively reduces the credit mismatch, excessive indebtedness, and leverage manipulation level of real enterprises through the leverage imbalance mechanism and credit correlation mechanism, and significantly weakens the guarantee correlation and credit risk correlation among real enterprises caused by shadow banking and financialization activities, thus effectively alleviating real enterprises’ systemic risks. This effect is more pronounced in regions with strong implicit government guarantees, weak financial supervision, and long-term urban investment debt. Regarding economic consequences, the positive alleviation effect of local government debt governance on real enterprises’ systemic risks is ultimately conducive to promoting the stable growth of enterprise operating performance. The marginal contributions of this paper are that: First, it broadens the research perspective of systemic risks, and provides feasible ideas and focuses for preventing and resolving major economic and financial risks under the current complex situation. Second, it enriches the research on the microeconomic effect of local government debt governance, and provides supplementary empirical evidence for the efficacy evaluation of the government debt governance system reform. Third, it verifies that the positive alleviation effect of local government debt governance on real enterprises’ systemic risks is ultimately conducive to clearing up the hidden dangers of economic growth caused by preventing and resolving systemic risks.

Key words: local government debt governance; real enterprises’ systemic risk; leverage imbalance; credit correlation; stable growth

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230617.203

收稿日期：2023-03-31

基金项目：国家社会科学基金一般项目（22BJL018）

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