流动人口家庭在流入城市消费不足的制度性约束——基于城区人口100万以上城市随迁子女升学政策的实证分析

Institutional Restrictions on Insufficient Household Consumption of Migrants in Destination Cities: Evidence from High-school Entrance Exam Policy for Migrant Children in Large Cities

《财经研究》2023年49卷第12期 页码：106-120 online：2023年12月3日

作者

中：邹月晴 , 陈媛媛 , 宋扬

英：Zou Yueqing, Chen Yuanyuan, Song Yang

作者单位：上海财经大学 经济学院，上海 200433

摘要及关键词

摘要：要实现国内消费的长期增长，需制度的改革和完善。流动人口子女的教育问题受到了广泛关注，自2001年中央政府颁布“两为主”政策以来，流动儿童在父母流入城市的义务教育入学问题有了显著的改善，但异地中考和高考的问题日益突出，绝大多数省份的异地高考政策都要求随迁子女在当地拥有三年高中学籍，能否在流入地参加中考是更为前置的问题。据此，文章试图从随迁子女异地中考政策的视角，基于城区人口100万以上城市的随迁子女升学政策进行实证检验，分析影响流动人口家庭在流入城市消费的制度性约束。结果显示，异地中考政策的限制造成了大城市的流动人口在流入地“留居不消费”现象加剧，当子女年级越接近中考时，在异地中考门槛越高的城市，流动人口家庭在流入城市的消费越低，且这一抑制作用对中等学历、城镇户口、男孩家庭和流入超大、特大城市的家庭作用更大。机制检验表明，异地中考政策主要通过降低流动人口家庭的家庭教育期望和改变子女留守选择这两个机制来影响消费。综上，文章认为，应继续推进随迁子女升学政策的改革，进一步保障随迁子女的受教育权利，激发流动人口消费的热情与活力，这对缓解经济下行叠加复杂多变的国际政治经济环境等多重负面影响下的需求收缩，刺激城市经济复苏具有重要作用。

关键词：异地中考政策；流动人口；家庭消费

Summary: Due to the restriction of the household registration system, the education rights of migrant children are not well protected. Since the central government issued the policy of “two priorities” in 2001, the compulsory education enrollment of migrant children in cities has been significantly improved. However, the restrictions on high–school and college entrance exams for migrant children have become increasingly prominent, and there is still a large number of migrant children who are unable to pursue further education in their destination cities upon completion of compulsory education. Because the college entrance exam policy for migrant children generally takes the high-school entrance exam policy for migrant children as a prerequisite, this paper attempts to analyze the impact of institutional restrictions on the household consumption of migrants in destination cities from the perspective of the high-school entrance exam policy for migrant children. This paper collects the policy documents of the high-school entrance exam for migrant children in 72 cities with a population of more than one million in central urban districts from 2013 to 2018, constructs an index to measure the barriers to the high-school entrance exam for migrant children using the analytic hierarchy process, and attempts to evaluate the impact of the high-school entrance exam for migrant children on the household consumption of migrants in destination cities using the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2014 to 2017. The findings suggest that policy restrictions have a significant impact on reducing the household consumption of migrants in destination cities. This effect is particularly noteworthy among families with moderate educational attainment and those who possess urban hukou, have sons, and are migrants in megalopolis cities. In terms of the underlying mechanism, this paper uses both the data of China Migrants Dynamic Survey from 2014 to 2017 and China Family Panel Studies from 2014 to 2018, and finds that the policy restrictions reduce the household consumption in destination cities mainly by lowering the education expectations of migrant families and increasing the probability of children being left behind. Little evidence supports that the policy changes migrants’ willingness to stay in cities. The results of this paper suggest that institutional restrictions directly suppress the household consumption of migrants in destination cities. The structural benefits of the spatial distribution of labor resources have not been fully realized and, as a result, cities have forfeited the economic advantages that are typically generated by migrant labor. This paper indicates that removing the education restrictions on migrant children can not only protect their education rights, but also stimulate consumption and economic development in cities.

Key words:high-school entrance exam policy for migrant children; migrants; household consumption

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20230617.304

收稿日期：2023-01-02

基金项目：国家自然科学基金面上项目（72273081，71773074）；国家自然科学基金重点项目（72034006）

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