同城化发展能否改善“集聚阴影”？

Will Urban Integration Development Improve the “Agglomeration Shadow”?

《财经研究》2024年50卷第2期 页码：19-32, 62 online：2024年2月3日

作者

中：张青睿1, 毛艳华2,3

英：Zhang Qingrui1, Mao Yanhua2,3

作者单位：1. 澳门科技大学 可持续发展研究所，澳门特别行政区 999078; 2. 中山大学 港澳珠江三角洲研究中心，广东 广州 510275; 3. 中山大学 区域开放与合作研究院，广东 广州 510275

摘要及关键词

摘要：进入新型城镇化阶段，地方政府间依托邻近的地缘关系逐步推动形成结构合理、分工明晰的同城化区域，其在支撑经济增长、推动区域协调发展等方面发挥着举足轻重的作用。文章基于2000—2019年中国34个都市圈131对城市组合的面板数据，将同城化发展规划的颁布视为一项准自然实验，采用多期双重差分模型探讨了政府推动下的同城化发展对都市圈外围城市产生的经济效应。研究发现，同城化发展能够有效带动外围城市的经济增长，改善长期以来中心城市迅速扩张所引致的“集聚阴影”现象。同城化发展主要通过技术扩散效应、产业投资效应和人口流动效应，推动外围城市的经济增长。地理距离增加、产业结构差异、政府支持力度不同所带来的溢出效应下降，在一定程度上解释了同城化发展经济效应的异质性。文章的研究为新发展格局下完善同城化发展规划和政策实施提供了重要启示。

关键词：同城化；集聚阴影；要素流动；区域协调发展；双重差分模型

Summary: At the stage of new urbanization, local governments gradually promote the formation of co-located areas with reasonable structure and clear division of labor based on geographic proximity, which plays a pivotal role in supporting economic growth and promoting coordinated regional development. Based on the panel data of 131 pairs of cities in 34 metropolitan areas in China from 2000 to 2019, this paper considers the promulgation of the urban integration plan as a quasi-natural experiment, and adopts a DID model to explore the economic effect of urban integration on the peripheral cities of metropolitan areas. This paper finds that urban integration effectively drives the economic growth of peripheral cities and improves the “agglomeration shadow” phenomenon caused by the rapid expansion of the central city, and this conclusion passes a series of robustness tests. Urban integration mainly promotes the economic growth of peripheral cities through the effects of technology diffusion, industrial investment, and population mobility. The decrease of spillover effect brought by the increase of geographic distance, the difference of industrial structure, and the difference of government support explain the heterogeneity of the economic effect of urban integration to some extent. The findings of this paper provide policy ideas for promoting the practical experience of urban integration in China: First, innovate the regional linkage mechanism and accelerate the construction of regional communities in metropolitan areas. Second, promote regional market integration and the rational allocation of factors in co-located metropolitan areas. Third, promote infrastructure connectivity and facilitate the development of regional industrial division of labor. The marginal contributions of this paper are that: First, this paper breaks through the research framework of urban integration, providing empirical evidence to accurately understand the economic effect of urban integration. Second, the urbanization regions included in this paper are the most common types of urbanization cases in China, which makes the results of the study have certain practical significance. Third, this paper explores the mechanism of urban integration from the perspective of factor mobility, providing a useful addition to the literature on regional cooperation and factor mobility.

Key words: urban integration; agglomeration shadow; factor flow; coordinated regional development; DID model

其他信息

DOI：10.16538/j.cnki.jfe.20231120.101

收稿日期：2023-08-25

基金项目：国家社会科学基金重大项目“新时代粤港澳大湾区协调发展机制体系研究”（18ZDA041）

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