蔡英文惨败！人心散了，选举当然不好赢了

当蔡英文出现在电视上、宣布辞去民进党主席职务时，不知道她是否会想起两年前自己赢得选举的那个晚上。那时，民进党已经占据了台湾22席县市长中的15席，立法机构113席中的68席，“完全执政”信心满满。

Taiwan leader Tsai Ing-wen announced her resignation as the chair of the Democratic Progressive Party late on Saturday, to take responsibility for the party’s defeat in Taiwan’s local elections.

仅仅两年后，民进党在“九合一”选举中就落得大败，15席变成了6席。这场选举不仅让绿营丢掉了大部分县市长席位，更标志了台湾地区的民心所向，说明蔡英文和民进党执政两年却未能通过期中考。

In the elections of governors and major civil servants for 22 cities and counties of the island — which is widely deemed as a mid-term examination of the Tsai administration since it took power in 2016, as well as a barometer of the island’s election in 2020 — the DPP won the governor's seats in six cities and counties, while the Nationalist Party, the largest opposition party, secured the rest.

在蔡英文之前，陈水扁和马英九都是在第二任期内才输掉地方“九合一”选举的。与这二位前任相比，蔡英文上交的期中考试答卷何止是没有通过，简直是离及格线相差甚远。

Both of Tsai’s two predecessors, DPP's Chen Shuibian and the Nationalist Party’s Ma Ying-jeou, lost the local elections in their second term as the island's leader.

作为个人，蔡英文在短短两年内就走完了从人生巅峰到低谷的旅程；作为党派，民进党则用了四年多的时间彻底毁掉了台湾民众对自己的期望。从民进党执政以来的种种表现来看，这次失败也在意料之中。

The question is how the Tsai administration lost the people’s support so fast that it had for almost six years. The people are disappointed, as the administration has not demonstrated its due ability to pull Taiwan’s economy out of a state of quasi-stagnation.

首当其冲的莫过于经济。2017年，全世界平均经济增长率是3.7%，而民进党执政下的台湾经济增长率是2.65%。

The island’s economic growth has been hovering around 1 to 2 percent in the past two years, markedly lower than the world average of 3.7 percent.

而蔡英文打着“改革”的旗号，砍掉军公教人员的年金、大幅降低其退休金水平，更是给民进党树敌无数。

Instead, some of its abortive reforms of public policies have ignored the interests of many groups, who were reluctant to vote for the DPP’s candidates in the local elections this time.

在两岸关系方面，蔡英文更是一意孤行，不承认“九二共识”，硬生生把已经很活跃的两岸关系变成一潭死水。民进党当局的“台独”行径，更是绑架台湾民众为蔡英文和民进党的政治诉求服务，在海峡两岸自然都会受到反对。

Moreover, despite Beijing’s cooperative stance, Tsai’s wheeler-dealer denial of the 1992 Consensus has forced the cross-Straits ties into a deadlock. The Tsai administration’s pro-independence secessionism has not only soured its crucial relations with the Chinese mainland, but also made it unpopular on either side.

台湾领导人造下的孽，承担者却是台湾的老百姓。台湾旅游业发达，大陆游客曾经络绎不绝，过去两年内大陆赴台旅行人次却降低了40%。

The administration begger-thy-neighbor practices have only stewed Taiwan in its own juice. In the past two years, the number of tourists from the Chinese mainland, the largest source of tourism revenue for Taiwan, has slumped by 40 percent.

20年前，台湾的经济总量大概相当于祖国大陆的40%左右；今天，这一比例已经降至4%。祖国大陆作为全世界经济的发动机，在过去几年依然保持着中高速发展的势头。随着蔡英文搞僵两岸关系，台湾从祖国大陆分得的发展红利自然就变得有限了。

That said, a stalemate tie means the dividends that Taiwan can secure from across the Straits are quite limited. Taiwan’s economy accounted for 40 percent of the mainland 20 years ago, and it is about only 4 percent now.

对于台湾来说，祖国大陆是不可取代的市场、产业伙伴、投资目的地，以及游客来源地，而且这些作用越来越明显、越来越不可或缺。无论谁担任台湾地区领导人，都不应该忘记这一点。

Taiwan economy’s reliance on the mainland, as a market, an industrial partner, an investment destination and a source of tourism revenue has become greater than before. That is a reality that no matter who leads the island cannot afford to ignore.

代表国民党参选高雄市长的韩国瑜成功胜选，让民进党长期执政的高雄“绿地”变“蓝天”

蔡英文想出的招数是“亲美媚日抗中”。不过她的惨败说明了这一策略在台湾人民心目中的地位。挟洋拒统的时代已经一去不复返了，任何乞求于外部势力干涉的人，必将失去台湾的人心。

Taking the initiative to quit her job as chair of the DPP, Tsai, who had exhausted her means to beg for United States’ protection and endorsement, must have also realized it is not only her economic policies, but also her separatism that has lost the Taiwan people’s hearts, and the US’ agenda-setting ability on the island’s politics has markedly degraded.

更何况，即使是蔡英文乞求的美国，也是不希望蔡英文无事生非的；和平、稳定的台海两岸关系是符合所有方利益的。可惜的是，蔡英文偏偏看不到这一点，非要玩火，非要挑战“一中”的底线，非要无视台湾人民的利益与福祉。水能载舟亦能覆舟，两年前把她选上台的台湾人民，现在已经抛弃了她的政党。

Either the Taiwan people or the White House thinks more of their own respective interests, which in the first place hinges on peaceful and stable cross-Straits relations. But the Tsai administration, which has gone in the opposite direction, turning itself to be a betrayal of Taiwan’s interests and a troublemaker to its allegedly most important ally, has drifted farther away from the practical needs of the Taiwan people, and the historical trends of recognizing the “one China” consensus.

如果蔡英文和民进党不能从这次惨败中吸取教训的话，那民进党只会失去更多。或成最大输家，这句话用来形容民进党的将来，或许真的挺合适的。

If the results of the local elections still cannot awaken the Tsai administration from its dream, it will be a matter of time for the DPP to lose its power.

翻译：张周项

来源：中国日报

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