视频 | 金灿荣教授罗马尼亚激辩西方学者：贸易战、地区冲突和全球治理（1)

 　  2019年10月15日至20日，中国公共外交协会胡正跃副会长率团访问罗马尼亚。代表团一行走访了罗马尼亚外交部、科学院、蒂图列斯库欧洲基金会等官方及研究机构，会见了罗马尼亚前总理讷斯塔塞、前外长、新战略中心名誉主席切拉克、外交部亚洲事务特别代表伊斯蒂乔亚、欧洲风险基金会主席利维乌·穆列尚等各界重要人士和专家学者，就当前国际关系重大发展趋势和走向，特别是中美贸易关系、英国脱欧、欧盟发展前景、“一带一路”、“17+1合作”等议题进行了广泛深入的探讨。

　  访问期间，代表团出席了罗马尼亚布加勒斯特论坛。金灿荣教授围绕“贸易战、冲突与全球治理”发表了主题演讲，传递中国声音，宣介中国主张，着力回应各方关切，阐述对当前重大国际问题的看法，受到普遍欢迎，引起强烈共鸣。本公众号将对视频和文字进行连载。

视频中文译稿

主持人：So, hello, welcome to the session on Trade Wars, Conflicts and Global Governance.

大家好，欢迎参加“贸易战、地区冲突与全球治理”论坛。

My name is Teery Martin. I am a news anchor with German’s Foreign Broadcaster Service Deutsche Welle.

我叫Terry Martin，来自德国广播公司 Deutsche Welle。

And it’s my great pleasure to moderate thise session. There are my thanks to German Marshall Fund of BucureştiBudapest for having me.

很荣幸由我来主持今天的论坛。非常感谢布加勒斯特布达佩斯德国马歇尔基金的邀请。

So, we are talking about Trade Policy. Trade policy is also foreign policy of course.

我们即将讨论贸易政策，当然。贸易政策也就是外交政策。

It is used as a foreign policy tool.  and Ssometimes it is used as a foreign policy weapon.

它经常被当做外交政策的工具，有时甚至作为外交政策的武器。

Just ask anyone who lives in Russia or Iran, w. When it comes to sanctions or  tariffsterrors, and how these affects countries and people and businesses who live there.

问一下俄罗斯或和伊朗的人，就知道制裁或者恐怖行动对这些国家和人民及其商业活动造成了多大的影响就知道制裁或者关税对这些国家、人民及其商业活动造成了多大的影响。

So trade policy is foreign policy, soon so we’re going to will be talking about that over the next hours.

因此，贸易政策确是外交政策。这是接下来一个小时里我们将讨论的。

So I have been told to keep this a little a little bit shorter. I was taken to lunch, all against my will, but it is also a fruitful experience, I assure you.

主办方要求我快刀斩乱麻。中午他们邀请我共进午餐，虽然这并非我本意，但相信我可以肯定的是，这是一次经历愉快颇有成效的经历。

Anyway, right now we are all witnessing a conflict of monumental proportions.

总之话说回来，现在我们正在见证一个载入史册的冲突我们都在见证一个影响重大的冲突。

We know exactly what we are talking about. It’s a topic  was talked against at the lunch again too. It is the topic in at these forums all around the world right now.

我们知道这是什么事。午餐的时候我们也在讨论。这是当前全世界的论坛都在讨论话题。

That is the confrontation between the United States and China, and to some degree, that conflict, is a systematic geopolitical confrontation, but its most prominent manifestation right now is the Trade War.

这就是中美之间的冲突。在某种程度上来说，这是系统性的地缘政治冲突，但是目前最主要的表现是贸易战。

I would call it a Trade War. Some might prefer to call it something else. But it is essentially a Trade War.

我认为这是贸易战。有些人可能不这么认为。但这本质上就是贸易战。

And that Trade War is affecting the world economy already.

贸易战已经对世界经济造成了影响。

Countries around the world, governance governments around the world are already, and institutions who tracking the global economy are already adjusting their forecast has been fault felt in different ways like peanut butter.

全世界的国家和政府，包括研究全球经济的机构已经修订了问题重重的预测，比如花生酱。

I love peanut butter. We will see just even in the conflict between the US and Europe, peanut butter is on that list, so on the sanction item.

我喜欢吃花生酱。但是我们看到，在美欧之间的冲突中，花生酱也在制裁清单上。

So peanut butter is becoming more difficult for me to get. So that is a serious thing indeed.

所以对我而言，吃个花生酱也越来越困难了。这真是个悲伤的故事。

So, we are talking about the Trade War affecting world economies, disrupting supply chains in ways, I hope we can hear more about it over the next hours.

我们将会讨论贸易战如何影响世界经济，如何扰乱供应链。我希望在接下来一个小时里我们能了解到更多。

And when you disrupting supply chains, a lot of things happen.

当供应链被扰乱时，牵一发而动全身。

It has lot of knock-on effects. It doesn’t just affect the businesses involved of course. It affects everything that is depend on these businesses, like people who work for example

它的影响涉及方方面面，不只是相关企业受影响，还有与这些企业相关的各方面，比如就业。

And it creates an atmosphere of deep uncertainty and anxiety which is what we are experiencing right now.

贸易战还制造出不确定和焦虑的氛围，我们当前深受其害。

This whole forum kicked off with the notion that we are still in an even deeper than a year ago into a pattern of disruption and uncertainty and we don’t really know where this is going.

在论坛开始的部分，我们会讨论这一观念，即我们依然处于更甚于去年的混乱和不确定性中，我们不知道未来将会怎样。

I hope we are getting a little bit of clarity today, not just on the conflict between China and the United States, but also on other conflict and other trade conflicts

我希望今天能让这个问题更清晰一点，不只是对于中美之间的冲突，还包括其他冲突和其他贸易冲突。

We have representatives from the UK, from China and Japan.

我们邀请到来自英国、中国和日本的嘉宾。

With these this, I am going to introduce them now and we will get things kicked off.

我现在将向大家逐一介绍。

Just one little warning of something to have a bake in the back of your mind.

温馨提示，你们可以在这段时间准备一下。

We will be inviting questions from you toward the end, last 20 minutes or so. One open question or so.

论坛结束前最后20分钟左右，我们会有提问环节，接受开放性问题。

So you can begin already to ruminate about what questions you may want to put to the panel.

你们现在可以开始思考想向嘉宾提出什么问题。

So let’s get it under way.

现在让我们开始吧。

It is my great pleasure to introduce the three panels.

很荣幸由我来介绍今天的三位嘉宾。

I just to invite you to here whatever order you wish.

请上台就坐。

Starting with Shinichi Nakabayashi, he is the director for Japan at the European Bank for Construction and Development.

首先是中村信一，欧洲复兴开发银行日本董事

We also have visitor with us Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China instituteion of at King’s College of London.

其次是Kerry Brown，伦敦国王学院Lau China研究所所长

And our third panelist is coming all the way from China, is Jin Canrong, who is associate dean of School of International Studies of Renmin University in China.

第三位嘉宾是从中国远道而来的金灿荣教授，中国人民大学国际关系学院副院长

First of all, a warm round of applause for our panelists, thank you for being therewith us.

首先，让我们致以热烈的掌声欢迎他们的到来。

Now we haved a bit of correspondents before we showed up here in the Budapest, and I will give the panels a few questions to reflect on.

在我们来到布加勒斯特之前，我们有过几次通信。我会向嘉宾提出今天讨论的问题。

And I’d like to begin by putting the first big picture question to our panels, and you guys can take about 5-7 minutes each, maybe to answer these.

首先，我想先请教嘉宾宏观层面的问题，你们可以用5-7分钟发表看法。

The first big question is what do current Trade wars and conflicts tell us about, what about economic and political order and about global governance?

第一个宏观问题是，当前的贸易战和贸易冲突对经济和政治秩序以及全球治理有什么启示？

This is basic what our titles are. You can go on whatever you want with that.

这和我们今天的标题差不多。请诸位畅所欲言。

Why don’t we start right here to my right, if you don’t mind Professor Jin.

先从我的右手边开始吧，如果金教授不介意的话。

金灿荣：Thank you Mr. Martin, and thanks to the host of the event as a great pleasure for me to be here. And it is my first time to be here.

感谢Martin 先生，感谢主办方，很荣幸我能受邀参加。这是我第一次造访布达佩斯布加勒斯特。

And I used to be trained as a student of American politics. So next year I will get a lot of interviews to predict who will be the next president of the United States. Hhhhh

我曾经攻读美国政治。所以明年应该会有很多人采访我，让我预测下一任的美国总统。嘿嘿嘿

For me, I think the most important challenge for today world is that we are facing the deficit of global governance.

在我看来，当今世界最大的挑战在于全球治理不足赤字。

China benefited from globalization a lot in the past four decades.

中国在过去的四十年里受益于全球化。

Many people believe that China is the one of the countries benefit most, and we appreciate these processes.

许多人认为中国是最大的收益者。我们欢迎全球化。

But very unfortunately now, these processes reverse to some extent.

但不幸的是，这一过程在某种程度上正在发生逆转。

The fact is that more global challenge occurred now, including climate change.

事实是，当前全球性挑战频发，包括气候变化。

So the demand for global governance keeps rising.

对于全球治理的需求在不断上升。

But on the other side, the supply of global governance, to some extent, is decreased.

而另一面，全球治理的供给在某种程度上反而减少了。

The one reason is that, the US doesn’t want to offer that supply.

一个原因是美国不愿意继续提供全球治理。

US still own enough resources, but become very selfish.

美国仍然拥有足够的资源，但它变得自私了。

The US administration now dominated, you know, by nationalism, American First, Buy American, Hire American.

美国政府现在弥漫着爱国主义：美国优先，买美国货，雇美国人。

Just like, you know, third world political leader.

看起来就像第三世界的政治领袖。

So US still own resources, but they don’t want to spend money.

美国依然拥有大量资源，但是他们不想花钱了。

So US become selfish.

所以说美国变得自私了，

And EU still has a very strong will to offer this global governance.

欧盟依然很想提供全球治理。

But EU has its problem. EU becomes weak after the Brexit.

但是欧盟也有问题。英国脱欧后，欧盟元气大伤。

So these are the problems.

这是问题。

It used to be the world benefit from the supply of global governance, many from the US and the EU.

过去全球都从美国和欧盟主导的全球治理中受益。

But now, we see on the supply side, they don’t want to supply.

但是现在。我们看到供给侧不再供给了。

And China wants to supply.

中国希望提供全球治理。

主持人：So what do you try to supply, global governance?

你们想提供什么？全球治理？

金灿荣：Global governance.

对，全球治理。

主持人：They are not supplying, ok. Just want to clear about that.

美国不再提供了，好的。我只是想确认一下。

金灿荣：You see the problem of logic: the demand keeps rising and the supply very hesitates.

你看到问题逻辑了：需求上升而供给犹豫不决。

China wants to join in, so we offered the “One Belt One Road Initiative”. But you guys are very hesitates to support China.

中国希望加入，所以我们提出了“一带一路倡议”。但是你们不太愿意支持中国。

主持人：When you say “you guys”, you mean…?

你说的“你们”指的是？（众人笑）

金灿荣：EU and US. Hhhh.

欧盟和美国。

And some people even demonize “One Belt One Road Initiative”. That’s ridiculous. That is irresponsible for the global governance.

有些人甚至妖魔化“一带一路倡议”。简直可笑。这是对全球治理的不负责。

So that is one concern of mine: the deficit of global governance.

这是我的第一个关注点：全球治理不足赤字。

The second concern definitely relates to the US-China relations.

第二个关注点是中美关系。

I have to say, now and in the future, the US-China relation is the most important bilateral tie for China.

不得不说，对中国而言，中美关系是当今乃至未来最重要的双边关系。

We do appreciate and benefit resulting from US-China relation for the past 4 decades after the normalization.

中美关系正常化之后的四十年里，我们从中受益良多。

We benefit a lot and we appreciate that.

我们对此表示欢迎。

But unfortunately, the US-China relation will enter a quite long bumpy period, at least last for one decade.

但是很遗憾，中美关系将进入相当长的颠簸期，至少持续十年。

We have to face this new reality.

我们必须面对这个现实。

Because US now define China, you know, as the revisionist country, and they consider terrorism as not that important threat, but competitions among big powers are now ranking No. 1.

因为美国现在把中国定义为修正主义国家。他们认为恐怖主义不再是最重要的，而大国角力成为头等大事。

And now they have two adversaries, Russia under the Putting the Great and China under our current leader, right? HHHHH

他们现在树立了两个敌人，普京大帝治下的俄罗斯和  领导下的中国。嘿嘿嘿

But from long term view point, they believe their only adversary should be China, because Russia fells into so called “Resource Curve” or “Resource Trap” already.

但是，长远来看，他们认为中国是唯一的敌人，因为俄罗斯已经跌入了“资源诅咒”或者“资源陷阱”。

So from a long term viewpoint, Russia will become not that strong economically, so they put China at very top position of adversary.

所以长期看，俄罗斯的经济实力会衰弱，所以他们将中国视为头号敌人。

That’s not good, not good for US-China relation.

这很不妙，对中美关系也不好。

As we all know, US people easy to, they are not good at thinking, as for thinking, not good as their European counterpart, but they are very good at action.

众所周知，美国人不像欧洲人那样善于思考，是十足的行动派。

So, after they defined China as revisionist country, they immediately launched the trade war.

所以，当他们把中国定义为修正主义国家之后，他们立刻发起了贸易战。

Actually, our official media does not use the word “trade war”, but we use term 贸易摩擦 ”trade friction”.

事实上。中国的官媒从未使用“贸易战”一词，我们使用的是“贸易摩擦”。

We are very cautious; we don’t want to exagerrate the seriousness of the situation.

我们非常谨慎，我们不想夸大形势的严重性。

So we see now the US-China relation deteriorated since spring last year.

所以我们看到，去年开春依赖中美关系开始恶化。

But as for the trade friction or trade war, I don’t want to worry so that much. I tend to believe next month, when we have APEC summit in Chili, we will have a partial deal.

但是就贸易摩擦或者贸易战而言，我觉得不用太担心，我相信在下个月智利举行的APEC 峰会上，将达成部分协议。

Because one side China compromises a lot, China really does not want to have a trade war. China did it best to avoid that. As I know, we compromised 80%.

因为中国已经做出了巨大让步，中国不希望打贸易战。中国竭尽全力避免。据我所知，中国让步了80%。

But the problem is, on the US side, they want to have a 100% deal. That is ridiculous.

问题在于美方，他们想获得100%的协议。这不可能。

You can never get that. Their choice is 0 or 80%.

他们不可能如愿。他们的选择只有 0 或者80%。

And I think, at Chili, President Trump will accept 80% deal,（主持人：OK）because he needs diplomatic victory.

所以我认为， 在智利，特朗普总统会接受 80%&的协议，因为他需要外交成果。

Actually, after 3 years of ruling, he got nothing in foreign policy. North Korea? He failed! Iran? Failed! Venezuela? Failed! Syria? Failed! Ukraine? Failed!

事实上，特朗普入主白宫3年期间在外交上一无所获。朝鲜？失败。伊朗？失败。委内瑞拉？失败。叙利亚？失败。乌克兰？失败。

Zero! You know. Hhh

一无所获。

So he needs something to show to his audience that he gets something.

所以他需要成果向他的选民做交代。

That is why I said as for trade war, don’t worry. We will have a partial deal.

因此我认为，贸易战不用太担心，我们会达成部分协议。

主持人：OK, thank you. I am afraid you have to stop. We will come back.

好的，谢谢，我不得不打断您了，后面还有机会。

Just a quick summary of what you have said: China is looking for, to Europe and the rest of the world, for more global governance. But Europe is weak and the US is selfish and China does see the prospect of the deal shaping out if the US just back away for its 100% demand maybe.

简单总结一下您的观点：中国希望欧洲或其他地方提供更多的全球治理，但是欧洲疲弱、美国自私，如果美国不坚守100%不让步，中国对这个协议还是持积极态度。

OK ,very good. Well Kerry, you want to pick it up from that? 非常感谢。

非常感谢。Kerry，你愿意下一个发言吗？（未完待续）

Kerry Brown

Kerry Brown:Sure, yeah. Good. Well, thanks for inviting me here, good to see you, Dr. Jin. And thank you very much.

感谢主办方的邀请，金教授你好，感谢主持人。

So, I propose my question, what I really think about, is this really about trade?

我提出我的问题，我想的是，这一切真的只是贸易问题吗？

You know, it seems, to me, there is a lot of deep structurally fuse are coming to the surface. And trade is like the soldier proxy.

对我而言，这更像是大量深层次的结构性导火索浮上水面。而贸易不过是个由头。

One of these is what is China’s rightful place, as you mentioned the “Belt and Road”. And the “Belt and Road” is the first proactive time for China try to really spell out what is seems rationally is.

其中一个导火索便是中国的定位是什么？正如您（金教授）提到的“一带一路”。“一带一路”是中国第一次主动向世界阐明其理念。

It looks like, it is a different thing in different place, the “Belt and Road” in central Asia.

这看起来是全新的理念，针对中亚的“一带一路”。

It is a different thing, the “Belt and Road” of India, which is obviously opposing it in many different ways.

和印度所提出的“一带一路”完全不同，而且在很多方面针锋相对。

The “Belt and Road” in Europe is different, which is about road to America, which doesn’t seem to be a part.

和欧洲的“一带一路”也不同，欧洲面向的是美洲，二者并不在中国的倡议范围内。

I guess “Belt and Road” to me is kind of interesting because it really what this world about for America. I mean, what is not in the “Belt and Road”, the United States and Japan, mostly the United States.

“一带一路”之所以吸引我，是因为它让我看到的了美国所处的位置。我的意思是，“一带一路”不包括谁呢？美国和日本，主要是排除美国。

(嘉宾用中文对着金教授说：放心吧放心吧)

So this vision is quite a geopolitical one. It is a very big geopolitical one. You can’t get rid of the politics.

这是非常具有地缘政治气息的愿景。你不能脱离政治。

So I suppose the trade war addresses a huge problem, which is what does China do when it is the one, and universe projection show in the next 5-10 years, it is probably sooner, China would be the world’s biggest economy in a gross term.

我认为贸易战暴露了巨大的问题，就是中国如果成为了世界第一，会有什么动作。普遍预测都显示中国的经济总量会在5-10之内，可能更快一点，超过美国。

I know in capital terms it is still way below the level of the United States.

虽然就资本项目而言，中国的水平远低于美国。

But that is a very different world to the one we are in now.

那可能会跟我们现在的生活大不一样。

The first is how does the United States response to that. And that is not an easy question, because the United States is a proud country likes to be loved. And we do love America.

首先是美国将作何反应。这不是一个简单的问题，因为美国是一个喜欢被人们热爱的傲娇的国家。当然，我们确实也热爱美国。

That is one issue. The second issue is it is not easy to see China’s economic status translates into political status.

这是一个问题，第二个问题是中国的经济地位如何转化成政治地位。

And in fact, the problem we have been talking about the last days really, is values. And I guess the social problem is American’s acquisition against China with the engagement with the international system, but not really believe its underlying values. Not really

事实上，正如我们这几天讨论的，问题在于价值观。我认为美国社会的问题在于，美国人认为中国参与国际体系，但并不真心信仰其内在的价值观。

I do not say it right or wrong, but that is the American perception, and for all the rest of the world, you are dealing with the world biggest economy at the moment feeling like it has not been dealt fairly, the world second-biggest economy feeling like it has not been dealt fairly. And there is no easy way to deal with that kind of that conflict.

我不判断对错，但至少美国人是这么看的。而对于世界其他国家而言，他们面对的是世界经济第一和第二的强国都认为自己受到不公正的待遇。这一冲突也不容易解决。

I mean trade conflict; I guess you like to do a deal, but that conflict is a much sucker one.

我认为贸易冲突你们或许可以达成协议，但是价值观的冲突则更加棘手。

So I think your forecast about this bumpy period is right, and I don’t think it needs to be 10 years. I think we are moving toward a world which is gonna be a perpetual pass for global architecture.

我认为你关于这个颠簸时期的预测是正确的，甚至不需要十年。我认为我们正走在迈向国际秩序的必经之路上。

And once the trade issue, if it is dealt with, is dealt with, there will be other issues.

一旦贸易问题得到解决，其他问题还会冒出来。

So the question, sort of underneath sense, thinking Confucianism, is what China’s rightful place is. And that is part for what China thinks is its rightful place and what is the rest of the world is going to, not to allow, but be comfortable with.

想想孔子的智慧，深层次的问题是，中国如何定位自身。这包括中国认为的定位以及世界能否接纳中国的定位。

Because there is resentment on either side about that rightful place, that is not going to work.

如果双方都对定位不满的话，那会很麻烦。

So the geopolitical consent is going to be absolutely crucial, and I am going to assess the huge debate that we are going to go through with this excellent conference also contributing too.

所以地缘政治的共识至关重要。我将继续探索这个宏大的争议，今天这场盛会也将有所裨益。

主持人：Thank you Kerry, so just again in summary.

非常感谢你的发言。还是总结一下。

We are talking about, in terms of in the side of American, the trade dispute, the trade part of that is really just reflection of larger geostrategic competition that is on the way, and not clear how it is going to conclude out,

我们说到，对于美国人来说，贸易争端的贸易只不过是反映了更大的地缘战略竞争，现在还不知道会如何收尾。

and reflects of deeper clash of values which of course rises question how do you overcome those differences with resolve, that one is a tough one.

这也反映了价值观的深层次冲突，这个问题的解决并不容易。

Kerry Brown:So, I notice the very final thing is that no one can say to a fifth of humanity that they have to go away.

我注意到，最重要的是没有人能忽视全球五分之一的人口。

So the fact of China, the fact of its structure, its population, the huge importance of its emerging of the middle class, these don’t go away. And even you have but, you know, trade friction or trade wars, that doesn’t go away.

中国的结构、人口以及新兴中产阶级的巨大影响力都无法令人忽视。

And no amount of confrontation. We will make that go away.

即使再多的冲突，我们也会解决。（未完，待续）

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