周波：放下“受害者”意识，中国走向博大宽广

中国论坛清华大学战略与安全研究中心 2021-07-08

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7月5日，清华大学战略与安全研究中心研究员、中国论坛特约专家周波在《南华早报》发表英文评论文章“No more a victim: China must leave its past behind and embrace its strength”。周波认为，中国的“百年耻辱”早已结束，放下“受害者”意识，中国将走向博大宽广。展望中国第二个百年目标，日益强大的中国应该重点思考如何维护世界和平、分享脱贫经验，促进全球共同发展，并与美国开展良性竞争。

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关于所谓的“战狼外交”，人们说了很多。抛开辞藻不谈，其真正根源在于中国人对于1840年鸦片战争以来的“百年屈辱史”的受害者意识。

1989年，邓小平在北京会见苏联领导人戈尔巴乔夫时，先花了很长时间历数沙俄如何欺凌中国，然后才说到那句“结束过去，开辟未来”。换句话说，如果不先回顾过去，他就无法谈论未来。

1989年5月16日邓小平在北京人民大会堂会见原苏联领导人戈尔巴乔夫的资料照片（图源：新华网）

中国并非唯一有受害者意识的国家。我曾经目睹一位芬兰高官听到有人提及“芬兰化”时突然满脸激愤。受害者意识可以是一张牌，打得最好的也许是特朗普，他曾说过：“想想吧！有谁能比我受到的攻击更多呢？”作为当选总统，他误导了美国选民，让他们相信地球上最强大的国家正“哀鸿一片”，而他可以“让美国再次伟大”。在白宫椭圆形办公室，他不分青红皂白地抨击对手和盟友，就好像美国是全世界的受害者。

一个人对批评的接受程度还取决于他对批评者意图的判断。当新疆维吾尔族人民的出生率和寿命实际都在增加时，有多少人真的相信关于新疆种族灭绝的说法？这不是严肃的批评，而是妖魔化中国。

相反的是，美国政府直到那场战争实际结束后，才宣布1994年的卢旺达内战是一场种族灭绝。美国就是担心一旦定性为种族灭绝，就难免让人期待它会进行干预。

1994年4月6日至1994年6月中旬，是胡图族对图西族及胡图族温和派有组织的种族灭绝大屠杀，共造成 80-100万人死亡。（图源：Gil Serpereau Flickr账号）

当毛泽东在1949年宣布中国人民“站起来了”时，“百年屈辱”应该已经结束了。

尽管这段屈辱历史大多发生在清朝统治时期，但其实时间很短暂，甚至不能掩盖清朝的成就。尤其是在盛清时，和平持续，经济繁荣，领土扩张，人口增长。这个朝代对后来中华民族概念的形成起到了至关重要的作用。

今天的中国不是受害者，而是全世界羡慕的对象。国际重心正在向东亚转移，中国有望在本世纪三十年代或更早，超越美国，成为世界上最大的经济体。

去年，中国消费者花了大约6万亿美元，这一数字超过了日本的经济总量。日本在上世纪发动的侵略战争造成的中国人受害者意识至今仍然挥之不去。

几年前，我在一次国际会议上听到了一个我认为最耐人寻味的问题：如果一个崛起的中国不喜欢美国的霸权，那么她理想的世界秩序—一个中国人会喜欢、外国人也能接受的世界秩序—会是什么样子？

这个问题没有现成答案。与19世纪的“不列颠和平”和20世纪的“美式和平”不同，21世纪不一定会是中式和平。没错，全世界都能感受到中国的经济影响力，而且在非洲和东南亚大部分地区，北京的影响力比华盛顿更大。

但是，到2049年（中华人民共和国成立100周年）中国实现“富强、民主、文明、和谐的社会主义现代化国家”的目标时，按人均国内生产总值计算，美国仍将比中国更富裕。

而“世界一流”的中国军队也不一定比美国军队更强，更有可能是势均力敌。

那么，中国如何才能为建设一个更美好的世界做出贡献呢？

首先，与希望把美式自由带给全世界的华盛顿不同，北京没有传教士般的狂热，更愿意帮助世界而不是掌控世界。四十多年来中国的和平崛起彰显中国慎用武力，这无疑能让世界不那么动荡。当美军卷入一场又一场的战争时，中国人民解放军将其海外军事行动限定在人道主义援助范围内。

其次，鉴于全世界仍有超过7亿人生活在极端贫困中，北京可以与其他发展中国家分享减贫的经验。这方面谁能比中国更有资格呢？2013年，中国每三个县中就有一个县，即总共还有832个县被认定为“贫困县”，到去年11月，中国政府宣布他们也全部脱贫。

11月23日，贵州省宣布剩余的9个贫困县退出贫困县序列。至此，中国832个贫困县全部脱贫（视频截图）

中国的“一带一路”倡议也将有助于塑造更好的世界经济格局。具有讽刺意味的是，这个多年来备受西方批评的倡议现在出现了一个西方的仿制品。美国总统拜登和七国集团合作伙伴提出的一项新的全球基础设施倡议“重建更美好世界”（B3W），旨在缩小发展中国家所需的逾40万亿美元的资金缺口。

模仿是最真诚的奉承，尤其是当它来自世界上最发达的国家时。如果这就是中美之间竞争的架势，世界倒是能从中受益。

到本世纪中叶中国会是什么样子，需要一些想象力。想必她将保留中国人最引以为豪的唐朝的一些令人愉悦的特征，即多元和包容。

唐代中国是一个繁荣、多民族、国际化的泱泱大国。她同时接纳佛教、景教、拜火教、伊斯兰教和摩尼教等各种外来宗教。唐代中国树立了一个无与伦比的大国是如何既自信又谦逊，既受人爱戴又不令人畏惧的光辉榜样。

中文原文首发于2021年7月6日观察者网

Zhou Bo: No more a victim: China must leave its past behind and embrace its strength

Much has been said about the so-called Wolf Warrior diplomacy. Rhetoric aside, the real issue isChinese victimhood over the “century of humiliation” that started with the 1840 opium war.

When Deng Xiaoping met Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in Beijing in 1989, he talked for quite some time about how China was maltreated by imperial Russia before he said “let’s put an end to the past and face the future”. In other words, he would not be able to talk about the future without first talking about the past.

China is not alone in succumbing to a sense of victimhood. I once saw a senior Finnish official become suddenly agitated because someone in the room mentioned “Finlandisation”. And victimhood can be a card. The best player is possibly Donald Trump, who once said: “Come to think of it, who gets attacked more than me?” As president-elect, he misled American voters into believing the strongest nation on earth was in “carnage” and that he could “Make America Great Again”. In the Oval Office, he lashed out at adversaries and allies alike as if the United States were a victim of the whole world.

A man’s acceptance of criticism also depends on his judgment of the critic’s intent. How many people really believe in claims of genocide in Xinjiang when the birth rate and lifespan of the Uygurs there have actually increased? This, rather than serious criticism, is demonisation.

In contrast, the US government did not declare the 1994 Rwandan war a genocide until it was practically over, out of concern that it would create an expectation that it would intervene.

When Mao Zedong declared that the Chinese people have “stood up” in 1949, the “century of humiliation” should have ended.

Even though it mostly occurred under Qing rule, it was such a short stretch that it failed even to overshadow the dynasty’s achievements. The High Qing era in particular saw sustained peace, economic prosperity, territorial expansion and population growth. The dynasty was essential to the subsequent formation of the concept of a Chinese nation.

Rather than a victim, China today is the envy of the world. The centre of international gravity is shifting towards East Asia. China is expected to surpass the US as the largest economy in the world in the 2030s or earlier.

Last year, Chinese consumers spent about US$6 trillion, a sum greater than the economy of Japan, a nation whose invasion last century still contributes to China’s sense of victimhood.

A few years ago, I heard what I thought was the most intriguing question at an international conference: if a rising China does not like American hegemony, then what would its ideal world order – one that the Chinese would love and foreigners would accept – look like?

There is no straight answer. Unlike Pax Britannica in the 19th century and Pax Americana in 20th century, the 21st century will not necessarily be Pax Sinica. Yes, China’s economic influence is felt worldwide. And in Africa and most of Southeast Asia, Beijing’s influence is greater than that of Washington.

But when China realises its goal of becoming a “strong, democratic, civilised, harmonious and modern socialist country” by 2049, the centenary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China, the US would still be the wealthier country when measured by gross domestic product per capita.

And a “world class” Chinese military is not necessarily stronger than the US military. It is more likely to be evenly matched.

So how can China contribute towards a better world?

First, unlike Washington, which wishes to bring its form of liberty to all, Beijing has no missionary zeal and prefers to help rather than police the world. Its caution in the use of force, as showed in China's peaceful rise in over four decades, would most certainly make the world a less volatile place. While the US military has been involved in one war after another, the People’s Liberation Army has restricted its military operations overseas to humanitarian aid.

Second, Beijing can share her experience in alleviating poverty with other developing countries, given that more than 700 million people are still living in extreme poverty worldwide. Who can be more qualified than China in this regard? In 2013, one in three counties in China, that is, 832 counties in total, was labelled as “poverty stricken”. Last November, China announced that they, too, had been lifted out of poverty.

China’s Belt and Road Initiative, too, will help to shape the world economic landscape for the better. Ironically, the initiative, which has been criticised for years by the West, now has a Western copycat. Build Back Better World, a new global infrastructure initiative by US President Joe Biden and the G7 partners, aims to narrow the funding gap of more than US$40 trillion needed in the developing world.

Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, and especially when it comes from the most developed countries in the world. If this is what competition between China and the US looks like, the world will benefit.

What China will look like mid-century needs a bit of imagination. Presumably, it will retain some pleasant features of the Tang dynasty that the Chinese are most proud of, that is, diversity and tolerance.

Tang China was prosperous, multi-ethnic and cosmopolitan. It was home to ’foreign‘ religions ranging from Buddhism, Nestorianism, Zoroastrianism and Islam to Manichaeism. It set a good example of how a great power next to none can be confident and humble, loved rather than feared.

Senior Colonel Zhou Bo (ret) is a senior fellow at the Centre for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University and a China Forum expert