CAER中国农村改革40周年专题之《改革开放以来的中国农村恩格尔曲线、农民福利和食物消费》

本期导读：

本文通过回顾恩格尔曲线的理论背景、方法扩展以及实证应用，并将其与收入和食物消费的统计数据相比较，分析了1978年中国经济改革以后农民的福利和食物需求变化。

基于恩格尔系数，本文将1978年以后的农民福利变化分为福利不断提高、福利略有下降和福利恢复性增长三个阶段。恩格尔系数在1995年仍然保持在0.59的高水平，但之后不断下降到2015年的0.33。作者认为，中国农民福利的增加源于深化市场化改革、农业保护政策和广泛非农就业。恩格尔系数也与食物需求弹性挂钩。在过去的40年间，随着恩格尔系数不断下降，收入弹性也从1978年的0.55持续下降到2015年的0.08。当前的食品需求是缺乏弹性的，收入增加也不会大幅增加食品需求。

 本文创新性归结了恩格尔曲线方法的优势，以此确定农民福利变化不同阶段，并估算了1978年经济改革后中国农民的粮食需求收入弹性。

Engel curve, farmer welfare and food consumption in 40 years of rural China

Xiaohua Yu (pp. 65 - 77)

Keywords: Rural China, Food consumption, Engel curve, Engel index, Farmer welfare, Household responsibility system

Type: Research paper

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to review the theoretical background, methodological extensions, and empirical applications of the Engel curve, which is applied to the research of the change in farmers’ welfare and food demand in China after the economic reform in 1978, compared with the statistics of income and food consumption.

Design/methodology/approach

This paper mainly uses the traditional method of Engel curve, which is compared with income growth and food consumption, to study farmers’ welfare improvement in rural China.

Findings

The Engel coefficients identify three different stages for farmers’ welfare change after 1978. The first stage is the period between 1978 and 1988, in which farmers’ welfare has been continuously enhanced due to the institutional bonusof the 1978 economic reform and increased government purchase price of agricultural products. The second stage is the period between 1989 and 1995, in which farmers’ welfare has been slightly deteriorated mainly due to the end of institutional reform bonus, suppressed food prices, relative high inflation,and instable political situation. The third stage is the period after 1995, in which farmers’ welfare returns to a growing path, as the dual price system was abolished, the transition from a planned economy to a market economy had been completed, and the government carried out protective policies for agriculture and started to heavily subsidize agriculture. The Engel coefficient stillremained at a very high level at 0.59 in 1995, but it continuously decreased to0.33 in 2015. The welfare enhancement for farmers mainly results from deepened market-oriented reform, protective policies for agriculture, and prevalentoff-farm employment. The Engel coefficient is also linked to food demand elasticities. Along with the decreasing Engel coefficient in the past 40 years, income elasticities also continuously decrease from 0.55 in 1978 to 0.08 in 2015. Food demand is very inelastic now, and any further increase in income will not substantially increase food demand any more.

Research limitations/implications

Inequality has not been analyzed.

Originality/value

This paper reviews the methodological advantages of the Engel curves, and uses it to identify different stages of welfare change and estimate income elasticities of food demand for farmers in China after the 1978 economic reform.

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