China Sticking With ‘Zero Covid’, But is it a Binary Choice?

A retired Chinese couple who tested positive for Covid-19 while exploring the country's north has ignited a race to trace infections across various provinces and regions, the latest evidence of Beijing's struggles in maintaining its zero-Covid policy.

Hundreds of close connections of the couple and their five travel companions, who eventually tested positive, were identified within three days after the revelation that the pair had tested positive in Xian on Saturday. According to the media and authorities, numerous cities conducted mass testing, a land port ceased operations, and major tourist destinations visited by the group were shuttered for decontamination.

Details of the group’s domestic flights and hotels, and stops at roast duck restaurants and noodle shops, spread across official media, with people asked to report where their movements overlapped with the group’s, if missed by the tracking app.

It's all part of China's emergency plan to halt Covid-19 from spreading. However, outbreaks and occasional cases – typically of the highly transmissible Delta type – have increased in recent months, necessitating the deployment of such interventions.

"These spikes are becoming more and more common, as well as more and more unpredictable," said Jin Dongyan, a medical faculty professor at the University of Hong Kong.

So far, the massive response appears to have halted the spread of illnesses and reduced case counts to zero, which is the Chinese government's ultimate goal as it continues to reject a position taken by a growing number of countries: living with the virus.

China shows no signs of switching tack in the short term, but experts say that the challenges of sticking with the zero-Covid approach are significant: international arrivals from high-risk places continue despite tight travel restrictions, long land borders bring ongoing vulnerability, and potential new variants, waning vaccine protection and missed local cases add to the uncertainty.

“It’s lucky that they have kept it under control [so far], but the risks are always there,” Jin said.

Future Outlook

Despite the difficulties, experts think that no major changes in disease control policies are likely in the coming months before Beijing hosts the Winter Olympics.

China's health officials have been evasive in recent public statements, with CDC director Gao Fu defining the country's stance as "wait and see" this month, despite vaccination rates expected to top 80%.

But, according to Kwok, vaccination protection and its function in preventing viral spread are part of the zero-Covid conversation, given that recent studies have demonstrated considerable decrease of antibody levels six months following inoculation with a widely used Sinovac Biotech vaccine.

“If we insist on a zero-Covid policy, we must think about the waning of [vaccine] antibodies and the impact of the Delta variant or potential new variants on causing breakthrough infections,” Kwok said.

Chen, of Yale, said China’s success in quashing Covid-19 may also be getting in the way of easing its border and quarantine protocols.

"Because they were so successful in limiting the virus, there is no domestic data to show what the transmission rate and death rate would be if they opened up." he stated "Even if China wanted to open up, it lacked the data to do so."

According to Chen, this was especially concerning considering the commencement of the winter flu season and the restricted quantity of intensive care beds in China compared to locations like the United States.

“Even if only a small percentage [of China's 1.4 billion population] is hospitalized, it may bring the health-care system to a halt,” he added.

Vigilance going into the flu season is all the more important, health authorities have warned. It also makes tracing cases and sources of infection – such as the cluster linked to the retired travellers, already connected to about 30 cases as of Thursday – all the more urgent. Conducting more testing may be one answer, according to Jin.

“The worst scenario is that when you realise there are a lot of cases, it’s already too late,” he said.

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Source: SCMP

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