写在前面的话：
再没有比FOMC会议纪要（minutes）更好的读懂美联储的资料了。在几乎任何严肃的研究美联储政策的专著中，会议纪要都是最常被引用的素材，比如黑泽尔的《美联储货币政策史》，或伯南克的《21世纪货币政策》等。上半年趁着整理书稿，重读了2020年以来的会议纪要，感觉还是很有收获的。不仅可全面掌握金融、经济（供给和需求）、就业、通胀等信息，学习美联储的分析框架，更重要的是通过美联储的眼睛来看这些数据。
本次纪要还是有一定的信息量的，虽然整体上并未超出市场的预期。但国内某些媒体抓的关键词恰恰是次要矛盾。
每次会议纪要大概包括八个部分，除去头尾的参会人员介绍和投票介绍，中间的六个部分是主体内容，其中，二-五这四个部分是纽约联储交易部门和美联储研究部门的成员对金融市场、经济形势的分析。第六部分是FOMC成员对当前和未来经济形势的判断，我个人认为也是信息密集度比较高的部分。详细的分析后续会有相应的专题，本文摘录第六部分中的核心段落简要介绍。
FOMC会议纪要目录：
一、Attendance
二、Developments in Financial
Markets and Open Market Operations
三、Staff Review of the Economic
Situation
四、Staff Review of the
Financial Situation
五、Staff Economic Outlook
六、Participants' Views on
Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
七、Committee Policy Action
八、Vote
预告：近期会以“美国经济衰退”为主题开展一次内部培训，仅对知识星球会员和新浪微博V+会员开放。内容涵盖衰退的定义、界定、预测及不同预测方法的比较，以及资产配置和交易层面的问题。（文末可添加知识星球）
Participants' Views on Current Conditions and the Economic Outlook
Participants observed that the labor market remained strong, with the unemployment rate very low, job vacancies and quits close to historically high levels, and an elevated rate of nominal wage growth. Many participants also noted, however, that there were some tentative signs of a softening outlook for the labor market: These signs included increases in weekly initial unemployment insurance claims, reductions in quit rates and vacancies, slower growth in payrolls than earlier in the year, and reports of cutbacks in hiring in some sectors. In addition, although nominal wage growth remained strong according to a wide range of measures, there were some signs of a leveling off or edging down. In some Districts, contacts had suggested that labor demand–supply imbalances might be diminishing, with firms being more successful in hiring and retaining workers and under less pressure to raise wages. Some participants noted that the contribution that increases in labor supply could make to reducing labor market imbalances was likely limited, especially as the scope for labor force participation to pick up was constrained by the ongoing movement of the large baby-boom cohort into their retirement years, while others highlighted factors holding down participation that could wane in the future, such as continuing pandemic-related concerns. Participants observed that, in part because of tighter financial conditions and an associated moderation in the growth of aggregate demand, growth in employment would likely slow further in the period ahead. They noted that this development would help bring labor demand and supply into better balance, reducing upward pressures on nominal wage growth and aiding the return of inflation to 2 percent. Several participants observed that the moderation in labor market conditions might well lag the slowdown in economic activity. Participants remarked that a moderation in labor market conditions would likely involve a decline in the number of job openings as well as a moderate increase in unemployment from the current very low rate. A couple of participants indicated that firms were keen to retain workers—a factor that could limit the increase in layoffs associated with a slowing labor market.这段描述了FOMC成员对劳动力市场的综合评估。翻译如下：“与会者观察到，劳动力市场仍然强劲，失业率非常低，职位空缺和离职接近历史高位，名义工资增长率上升。不过，许多与会者也指出，有一些初步迹象表明劳动力市场前景趋于弱化：这些迹象包括每周首次申请失业保险人数增加、离职率和职位空缺减少（注：高位下行）、就业人数增长较今年早些时候放缓，以及有报告称某些行业的招聘人数有所减少。此外，尽管根据一系列广泛的衡量标准，名义工资增长仍然强劲，但也有一些趋稳或下降的迹象。在一些地区，调研表明劳动力供求失衡可能正在减少，企业在雇佣和留住工人方面更成功，加薪的压力也更小。一些与会者指出，劳动力供应的增加对缓解劳动力市场失衡的贡献可能有限，特别是由于劳动力参与率上升的空间受到婴儿潮时期出生的大批人正在步入退休年龄的限制，而其他人则强调了其它抑制劳动力参与率的因素，如与持续的大流行病相关的担忧，这些因素在未来可能会减弱。与会者注意到，部分由于财政状况收紧和相关的总需求增长放缓，未来一段时间就业增长可能会进一步放缓。他们指出，这一变化将有助于实现劳动力需求和供给的更好平衡，减轻名义工资增长的上行压力，并有助于通胀率回到2%。几位与会者指出，劳动力市场状况的缓和很可能滞后于经济活动的放缓。与会者表示，若就业市场情况缓和，就业机会可能会减少，失业率亦会从目前的极低水平温和上升。一些参与者表示，公司希望留住员工，这可能会限制随着劳动力市场放缓而裁员的增加。”笔者最近也在写作美国劳动力市场的专题，分析得出的信息大致与上文保持一致，3季度很可能就是美国劳动力“盛极而衰”的转折点，如下表所以，美国劳动力市场条件（LMCI）底层的24个指标当中，已经超过一半为“负面”——劳动力市场的紧张状态将缓解。具体在专题中详细阐述。
Participants observed that inflation remained unacceptably high and was well above the Committee's longer-run goal of 2 percent. In light of the high CPI reading for June, participants noted that PCE inflation was likely to have increased further in that month. Participants further observed that inflationary pressures were broad based, a pattern reflected in large one-month increases in the trimmed mean CPI and core CPI measures. Participants remarked that, although recent declines in gasoline prices would likely help produce lower headline inflation rates in the short term, declines in the prices of oil and some other commodities could not be relied on as providing a basis for sustained lower inflation, as these prices could quickly rebound.Participants also noted that the high cost of living was an especially great burden on low- and middle-income households. Participants agreed that there was little evidence to date that inflation pressures were subsiding. They judged that inflation would respond to monetary policy tightening and the associated moderation in economic activity with a delay and would likely stay uncomfortably high for some time. Participants also observed that in some product categories, the rate of price increase could well pick up further in the short run, with sizable additional increases in residential rental expenses being especially likely.这段话比较好的描述了FOMC对于通胀的态度，故翻译如下：“与会者注意到，通货膨胀率仍然高得不可接受，远高于委员会2%的长期目标。鉴于6月份的高CPI，与会者指出，当月PCE通胀可能进一步上升（注：PCE月底才会公布）。与会者进一步观察到，通胀压力是广泛的，这表现为削减平均CPI和核心CPI指标的大幅增长。与会者指出，尽管近期汽油价格下跌可能会在短期内帮助降低总体通胀率，但不能指望石油和其他一些大宗商品的价格下跌为持续较低的通胀提供基础，因为这些价格可能会迅速反弹。与会者还指出，生活费用高对中低收入家庭来说是一个特别大的负担。与会者一致认为，迄今几乎没有证据表明通胀压力正在减弱。他们判断，通胀将对货币政策收紧和相关经济活动的放缓做出反应，并可能在一段时间内保持在令人不安的高位。与会者亦注意到，某些产品的价格在短期内可能会进一步上涨，其中住宅租金尤其有可能大幅增加。”笔者在文章中有强调，关于通胀，不应只关注数字的高低，还要关注波动性，两者至少一样重要。通胀快速下行如果伴随着高波动，还不如缓慢但平稳地下行，更有助于货币政策立场的放松。对于能源价格下降带来的通胀下行的持续性，美联储持观望态度。In their consideration of the appropriate
stance of monetary policy, participants concurred that the labor market wasvery tight and that inflation was far above the Committee's 2 percent inflation
objective. Participants noted that recent indicators of spending and production
had softened, while, by contrast, job gains had been robust and the
unemployment rate had remained low. Against this backdrop, all participants
agreed that it was appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds
rate 75 basis points at this meeting and to continue the process of reducing
the Federal Reserve's securities holdings, as described in the Plans for
Reducing the Size of the Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet that the Committee
issued in May. Participants observed that, following this meeting's policy rate
hike, the nominal federal funds rate would be within the range of their
estimates of its longer-run neutral level. Even so, with inflation elevated and
expected to remain so over the near term, some participants emphasized that the
real federal funds rate would likely still be below shorter-run neutral levels
after this meeting's policy rate hike.
本次会议的政策立场。
由于劳动力市场“非常紧张”，通胀“远远高于”政策目标，所以，与会者一致同意加息75bp。虽然本次加息后，名义FFR已经位于长期中性利率区间（中位数估计是2.5%），但高通胀使得实际FFR仍低于短期中性利率水平。言外之意，还有继续收缩的空间和必要性的。
In discussing potential policy actions at upcoming meetings, participants continued to anticipate that ongoing increases in the target range for the federal funds rate would be appropriate to achieve the Committee's objectives. With inflation remaining well above the Committee's objective, participants judged that moving to a restrictive stance of policy was required to meet the Committee's legislative mandate to promote maximum employment and price stability. Participants concurred that the pace of policy rate increases and the extent of future policy tightening would depend on the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and risks to the outlook. Participants judged that, as the stance of monetary policy tightened further, it likely would become appropriate at some point to slow the pace of policy rate increases while assessing the effects of cumulative policy adjustments on economic activity and inflation. Some participants indicated that, once the policy rate had reached a sufficiently restrictive level, it likely would be appropriate to maintain that level for some time to ensure that inflation was firmly on a path back to 2 percent.
展望未来货币政策。
继续紧缩是有共识的，但在未来某个时点放慢加息的节奏也在考虑之内。一些参会者表示，当利率上升到合宜的水平之后，应该将其保持在高位一段时间，以观察通胀是否稳定地朝着2%目标收敛。
Participants concurred that, in expeditiously raising the policy rate, the Committee was acting with resolve to lower inflation to 2 percent and anchor inflation expectations at levels consistent with that longer-run goal. Participants noted that the Committee's credibility with regard to bringing inflation back to the 2 percent objective, together with its forceful policy actions and communications, had already contributed to a notable tightening of financial conditions that would likely help reduce inflation pressures by restraining aggregate demand. Participants pointed to some evidence suggesting that policy actions and communications about the future path of the federal funds rate were starting to affect the economy, most visibly in interest-sensitive sectors. Participants generally judged that the bulk of the effects on real activity had yet to be felt because of lags associated with the transmission of monetary policy, and that while a moderation in economic growth should support a return of inflation to 2 percent, the effects of policy firming on consumer prices were not yet apparent in the data. A number of participants posited that some of the effects of policy actions and communications were showing up more rapidly than had historically been the case, because the expeditious removal of policy accommodation and supporting communications already had led to a significant tightening of financial conditions.紧缩的货币政策已经开始起到“降温”的作用，利率敏感部门（如房地产、汽车、耐用品消费等）尤其突出，但大多数部门的数据还未体现——将来会慢慢体现，因为货币政策对实体经济的影响是滞后的。弦外音是：货币政策的紧缩效应需要一段时间才能体现出来，现在经济已经在走下坡路了，对于实施更进一步的紧缩要更加谨慎。In light of elevated inflation and the upside risks to the outlook for inflation, participants remarked that moving to a restrictive stance of the policy rate in the near term would also be appropriate from a risk-management perspective because it would better position the Committee to raise the policy rate further, to appropriately restrictive levels, if inflation were to run higher than expected. Participants judged that a significant risk facing the Committee was that elevated inflation could become entrenched if the public began to question the Committee's resolve to adjust the stance of policy sufficiently. If this risk materialized, it would complicate the task of returning inflation to 2 percent and could raise substantially the economic costs of doing so. Many participants remarked that, in view of the constantly changing nature of the economic environment and the existence of long and variable lags in monetary policy's effect on the economy, there was also a risk that the Committee could tighten the stance of policy by more than necessary to restore price stability. These participants highlighted this risk as underscoring the importance of the Committee's data-dependent approach to judging the pace and magnitude of policy firming over coming quarters.“风险管理”视角是格林斯潘时代的遗产，是“格林斯潘看跌期权”的观念基础。当下，美联储需要在两个风险之间取得平衡：紧缩不足和紧缩过度。前者导致通胀目标失控，后者导致经济增长压力过大。如果非得分一个主次，紧缩不足才是美联储更加担心的风险。“more than necessary”（紧缩过度）就是国内媒体抓住的一个关键词，恰恰是次要风险。随后，与会者再次强调了数据驱动的重要性。我自己的一个猜测，抗击通胀不仅是美联储的优先事项，也是白宫的头等大事，正好又是中期选举的关键时间窗口。拜登和耶伦多少都会释放某些信号。美联储既不能被市场，更不能被白宫牵着步子走。强调数据驱动，另一层含义也是保持政治独立性。Participants reaffirmed their strong commitment to returning inflation to the Committee's 2 percent objective. Participants agreed that a return of inflation to the 2 percent objective was necessary for sustaining a strong labor market. Participants remarked that it would likely take some time for inflation to move down to the Committee's objective. Participants added that the course of inflation would be influenced by various nonmonetary factors, including developments associated with Russia's war against Ukraine and with supply chain disruptions. Participants recognized that policy firming could slow the pace of economic growth, but they saw the return of inflation to 2 percent as critical to achieving maximum employment on a sustained basis.压制通胀是第一要务，虽然（短期内）会牺牲一些经济增长。正好能够说明上文中的主次矛盾。
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