《观察与建议》| 中国“十四五”规划 ——推进高质量发展
《观察与建议》2021-01 | 中华人民共和国第十四个五年规划 ——推进高质量发展
Observations & Suggestions: The 14th Five-Year Plan of the People’s Republic of China—Fostering High-Quality Development
本政策说明对中华人民共和国“国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划”（2021—2015年）提出了建议。
This policy note outlines recommendations on the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China.
建议重点针对创新驱动型增长、低碳发展、城乡融合与提高社会包容度、人口老龄化等重点领域。“十四五”规划侧重高质量、绿色发展，并强调创新是现代发展的核心，要依托双循环战略作为增长模式，结合各项改革，提高人们的生活水平。基于“十三五”规划取得的成果，“十四五”规划的目标是降低经济的碳强度，并在2030年之前达到二氧化碳排放峰值。
They focus on innovation-driven growth, low-carbon development, integration of urban–rural areas with deeper social inclusion, and population aging. The 14th Five-Year Plan highlights high-quality green development and emphasizes innovation as the core of modern development, relying on the dual circulation strategy as the growth paradigm coupled with reforms to increase living standards. Building on the achievements of the 13th Plan, it aims to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy and peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030.
摘要
Abstract
中华人民共和国（中国）“国民经济和社会发展第十四个五年规划”（“十四五”规划） （2021—2025年）于2021年3月审议通过，强调高质量、绿色发展。基于“十三五”规划取得 的成果，“十四五”规划的目标是降低经济的碳强度，并在2030年前达到二氧化碳排放峰值。“十四五”规划强调，创新是现代发展的核心，要依托双循环战略作为增长模式，结合各项改革，提高人们的生活水平。
The 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) (the Plan) for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) was approved on March 2021. The Plan highlights high-quality, green development. Building on the achievements of the 13th Plan, it aims to reduce the carbon intensity of the economy and to peak carbon dioxide emissions before 2030. The Plan emphasizes innovation as the core of modern development, relying on the dual circulation strategy as the growth paradigm coupled with reforms to increase living standards.
为了支持包容性城市化，“十四五”规划宣布通过改革进一步放宽户籍制度（户口）限制，为流动 人口提供更平等的公共服务，同时制定跨区域发展计划，促进劳动力跨区域流动。“十四五”规划 还提出，要改善公共卫生系统，发展长期养老体系。
In support of inclusive urbanization, the Plan announces reforms to further relax the household registration system (hukou), provide more equal access to public services for migrants, as well as increase labor mobility through cross-region development plans. The Plan also reflects the need to improve the public health system and to develop a long-term elderly care system.
主要建议包括继续推动经济再平衡，通过增加居民消费，促进经济向服务业转型。提升居民消费 也可拉动内需。改善高质量公共卫生、养老和教育服务，可减少预防性储蓄的需要。
Key recommendations include continued rebalancing of the economy toward services, to which increased household consumption could contribute. Strengthening household consumption would also increase domestic demand. Better access to quality public health and elderly care, and education would reduce the need for precautionary saving.
应加快减少二氧化碳的排放。由于预计制造业占经济的比重将保持稳定，在2030年前实现碳排放 达峰的目标将给中国经济在2060年之前达到碳中和带来巨大压力。
Carbon dioxide emission reduction plans should be accelerated. With manufacturing expected to keep a stable share in the economy, aiming for peak emissions before 2030 will put enormous pressure on the economy to reach carbon neutrality by 2060.
城乡地区融合发展和缩小城乡居民生活水平差异，需要采取户籍、土地和社会保障改革的综合方法， 同时需要改善农村地区就业机会，提供平等的医疗和教育服务。随着社会老龄化，为包容性长期养老 体系建立可持续财政框架仍然是一个紧迫问题。
Integrating urban–rural areas and reducing differences between their living standards would require an integrated approach of hukou, land, and social security reforms paired with improved job opportunities and equal access to health care and education in rural areas. Establishing a sustainable financial framework for an inclusive long-term elderly care system remains a pressing issue as society ages.
关于《观察与建议》
《观察与建议》是一份中英文双语的系列政策报告，由亚洲开发银行（亚行）东亚局内部和外部专家编写，旨在就优先发展问题向东亚的公务人员和高层决策者提供信息和建议。议题主要由政府提出特别请求或由亚行东亚局发起，针对预期可能出现的政策或改革重点论题进行研究并给出建议。
Observations and Suggestions is an English-Chinese bilingual publication series produced by experts from inside and outside of ADB's East Asia Department. The policy notes are designed to provide information and advice on development issues to East Asia’s civil servants and policymakers. They are produced either on request from the Government or as an initiative of the East Asia Department on topics expected to emerge as policy or reform priorities.
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