很多人不知道，疫情爆发前三个月，霍普金斯组织过一次顶级的大流行病模拟演习
可能很多人不知道，2019年10月，即距新型冠状病毒肺炎爆发前三个月，约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心(Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security)、世界经济论坛(World Economic Forum)、以及比尔及梅林达·盖茨基金会(Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation)，曾共同举办了一场名为 Event 201 的大流行病模拟演习。
Event 201 是一场长达三个半小时的模拟演习，包括预先录制的新闻视频、模拟推演数据、现场“工作人员”简报以及对特定主题的主持式讨论。15位来自大型企业、政府和公共卫生领域的专业人士参加了此次模拟演习，共同讨论面对大型流行病爆发，全球如何共同协作应对。
换言之，专家们是基于虚拟的场景和数据，提出针对性的解决方案，并真实的表达了自己的观点。值得关注的是，中国疾控中心主任、中科院院士高福也受邀参与了这次流行病演习。
因为近期新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情爆发，约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心官网还专门发布了一条声明，强调之前的这个演习并没有对此次新冠肺炎疫情作出任何预测，以下是其声明截图和译文。▼
最近，卫生安全中心收到了关于这次流行病演习是否预示了当前中国新型冠状病毒爆发的问题。需要明确的是，卫生安全中心和合作伙伴在我们的桌面演习期间没有做出预测。在这个场景中，我们模拟了一个虚构的冠状病毒流行病爆发，但我们明确声明这不是一个预测。相反，演习强调了在非常严重的流行病爆发中可能出现的防备和应对挑战。我们现在并不预测nCoV-2019疫情将导致6500万人死亡。尽管我们的桌面演习包括一个模拟的新型冠状病毒，我们用于模拟该虚构病毒潜在影响的输入和nCoV-2019并不类似。 约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心
出于应景（qiú shēng）考虑，本公众号声明：
以下中英文内容是对 Event 201 演习官方精选视频的听译，仅供语言学习目的使用，不排除可能存在翻译或理解上的偏差，虽已尽力学习，但无法保证其医学卫生领域的专业性，也不代表本公众号观点。
点击这里观看 Event 201 演习：▼
It began in a healthy-looking pigs months, perhaps years, ago. A new coronavirus spread silently within hers.
这是从一头看起来健康的猪开始的，几个月，也许几年前就开始了。一种新的冠状病毒在它体内悄然传播。
Gradually, farmers started getting sick. Infected people got a respiratory illness, with symptoms ranging from mild, flu-like signs to severe pneumonia, the sickest required intensive care, many died.
渐渐地，农民开始生病。受感染的人得了呼吸道疾病，症状从轻微的类似流感的症状，发展到严重的肺炎，最严重的需要重症监护，许多人死亡。
Experts agree unless it is quickly controlled, it could lead to a severe pandemic, an outbreak that circles the globe and affects people everywhere.
专家认为除非它被迅速控制，否则可能导致严重的流行病，一场席卷全球、影响世界各地的疫情。
演习中，这个模拟的病毒被称作CAPS
流行病应急委员会成立应对这一事件▼
以下是演习中全球专家讨论实录：
Anita Cicero（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）
Anita Cicero（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）发言：
The mission of the Pandemic Emergency Board is to provide recommendations to deal with a major global challenges arising in response to an unfolding pandemic. The board is comprised of highly experienced leaders from business, public health, and civil society.
流行病应急委员会的任务是提供建议，以应对正在发生的流行病所带来的重大全球挑战。该委员会由来自商界、公共卫生领域和政府的经验丰富的领导人组成。
Caitlin Rivers（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）
Caitlin Rivers（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）发言：
We could be looking at double the number of cases in one week and 16 times as many in a month. If we are not able to stop the spread, that would be on the order of half a million cases and it would continue to rise exponentially.
我们观察到病例数在一周内翻番，一个月增加了16倍。如果我们不能阻止传播，将会有50万个病例，并将继续呈指数级增长。
In three months, we could be approaching 10 million cases. We're at the start of what's looking like. It will be a severe pandemic.
三个月后，可能会有接近1000万个病例。我们才刚刚开始。这将是一场严重的流行病。
And there are problems emerging that can only be solved by global businesses and governments working together.
现在出现的问题只有全球企业和政府共同努力才能解决。
Dr. Yabani Bello 是演习中的一个虚拟人物
Dr. Yabani Bello（演习中虚拟医生）发言：
We have known about CAPS like viruses in animals and people for decades, but have not been successful at developing a licensed vaccine.
我们已经知道了CAPS就像几十年来动物和人体内的病毒，但是还没有成功开发出一种许可的疫苗。
I'm sure there are new technologies that may help, but it's going to be difficult. I am not optimistic about having a vaccine in time to be relevant during this pandemic.
我相信有些新技术会有所帮助，但将是困难的。我对在这次流行病爆发期间及时接种疫苗并不乐观。
“抗病毒药物和重要医疗用品
必须在全球范围内分配”
Tom Inglesby（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）发言：
So the policy crisis in question for this board in this meeting is this. How should governments, business, and international organizations allocate and distribute pandemic antivirals and medical supplies to the people who need them most?
这次会议上，委员会面临这样的政策危机。政府、企业和国际组织应该如何调拨和分配流行病抗病毒药物和医疗用品给最需要的人？
Adrian Thomas（强生公司）发言：
What we've seen work very well in the HIV field is in fact procurement through the global fund. So having a centralized mechanism, so financially able to procure on behalf of the affected country is going to be critical.
我们看到在艾滋病毒领域的效果很好，实际上是通过全球基金进行采购。所以有一个集中的机制，在经济上能够代表受影响的国家获得资金将是至关重要的。
I think the second thing is it's going to be very important that for the business sector, for manufacturers of anti antivirals, that we have clarity around what the need is and where the need is and who are making the decisions.
我想第二件事对于商业机构、对于抗病毒药制造商来说将是非常重要的，我们要清楚需求是什么，哪里有需求，以及谁做决定。
Sofia Borges（联合国基金会）
Sofia Borges（联合国基金会）发言：
I think that, given that the countries most affected are those that are low and middle income countries, with unequal access to technology, to finances. And the UN has a worldwide footprint, universally recognized and universal membership.
我认为，考虑到受影响最严重的国家是那些低收入和中等收入国家，不能平等地获取技术和资金。联合国有世界影响，被普遍承认，成员国遍及全球。
Christopher Elias（比尔及梅林达 · 盖茨基金会）
Christopher Elias（比尔及梅林达 · 盖茨基金会）发言：
A global stockpile would certainly help ensure more rational and strategic allocation, but the reality is that we don't have the logistics capability even within the UN to bring that together in one place and around it.
全球储备肯定有助于确保更合理和更战略性的分配，但现实是，即使在联合国内部，我们也没有后勤能力把它集中在一个地方及周边。
So this is where I think a collaboration between the international organizations like the World Health Organization and the private sector which runs the supply chains for many purposes every day, understand where the supplies are.
这就是我认为需要合作的地方，在世界卫生组织等国际组织以及每天因为各种需要运行着供应链、了解供应来源的私营机构之间的合作。
Make smart decisions about how to allocate them to the people who need them in the places that need them the most. And then work with the industry to move those supplies from where they are today to where they need to be.
我们要做出明智的决定把物资分配给那些最需要人，那些最需要的地方。然后和这个行业合作来运输这些物资，并运送到需要的物资的地方。
Eduardo Martinez（UPS基金会）
Eduardo Martinez（UPS基金会）发言：
Just to underscore the point that cooperation among supply chain providers or businesses that have huge supply chains and can add a lot of efficiency to the whole process.
我想强调一下合作的意义，和供应链提供商或拥有巨大供应链的企业合作，可以为整个过程大大提高效率。
Avril Haines（前美国副国家安全顾问）
Avril Haines（前美国副国家安全顾问）发言：
The question is can you through this international mechanism, really promote commitments to doing this as quickly as possible and give people a sense that, actually, if they contribute more, that they will have a better chance of protecting their own populations in their country's security health.
问题是你能否通过这个国际机制，真正促进尽快实现这一目标的承诺，而且说得实际一点，要给人们一种感觉，如果他们贡献更多，他们就更有可能来保护本国人民的安全健康。
Jane Halton（澳新银行）
Jane Halton（澳新银行）发言：
So to be completely clear, most of this production would already be committed in contracts. It is almost unheard of that people are producing product without having a fold commitment for the consumption of their products.
所以说得很清楚，大部分的生产已经在通过合同承诺了。我们从没听说过人们在生产产品，却没有得到明确承诺说可以消费他们产品这样的事。
So the first thing that needs to be done, because this is not something that the countries currently control, in these countries are going to bring about emergency situations and corrupted an existing supply chain.
所以这是当务之急，因为这不是这些国家现在所控制的，在这些国家将会出现紧急情况，并破坏现有的供应链。
Stephen Redd（美国疾控中心）
Stephen Redd（美国疾控中心）发言：
I think it's not likely. I agree that countries are not going to buy countermeasure to put into a global supply without retaining a large portion of it for themselves.
我认为这是不可能的。我赞同各国不会同意在不保留大部分自身供应的情况下，就投入到全球供应中。
演习中虚拟的电视新闻主持人
虚拟主持人发言：
Public health agencies have issued travel advisories, while some countries have ban travel from the worst affected areas.
公共卫生机构已经发布了旅行建议，一些国家禁止来自严重疫区的的旅行者。
As a result, the travel sector is taking a huge hit. Travel bookings are down 45% and many flights have been cancelled.
因此，旅游业受到巨大冲击。旅游预订下降了45%，许多航班被取消。
演习中虚拟的旅游行业数据
A ripple effect is racing through the service sector. Governments that rely on travel and tourism as a large part of their economies are being hit particularly hard.
连锁反应正在服务业迅速蔓延。依赖旅游和旅游业作为其经济主要组成部分的政府受到的打击尤为严重。
“旅行和贸易限制正产生深远的经济影响”
Tom Inglesby（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）发言：
How should national leaders, businesses and international organizations balanced the risk of worsening disease that would be caused by the continued movement of people around the world against the risks of profound economic consequence of travel and trade bans?
各国领导人、企业和国际组织应如何平衡世界各地人们持续流动可能导致的疫情恶化风险，以及旅行和贸易禁令可能造成的深远经济后果？
Tim Evans（前世界银行集团）
Tim Evans（前世界银行集团）发言：
If there's some sense that there's a UN institution that can do all of this, then I worry we're suffering from a delusional disorder on the power of the UN.
如果某种意义上说联合国这样的机构可以做到这一切，但我担心我们正对联合国的能量产生妄想了。
It's really important to get those industries and their trade associations and an efficient leadership established which is decentralized but has a collective responsibility and accountability, and that needs to be supported by the public leadership.
重要的是要让这些行业和他们的行业协会和有效的领导建立起来，它是分散的，但有共同的责任和义务，这需要得到公众领导的支持。
Matin Knuchel（汉莎航空）
Matin Knuchel（汉莎航空）发言：
What is essential, what is non-essential travel? We have to clarify this.
什么是必要的、什么是非必要的旅行？我们必须说清楚。
Otherwise, if we go down to 20% over a long period, the company will run down. That's effect.
否则，如果我们的营收在很长一段时间内下降到20%，公司将会倒闭。这就是影响。
Christopher Elias（比尔及梅林达 · 盖茨基金会）发言：
You know, there's a whole complex set of issues in a highly interdependent world. On supply chains, that are Just-In-Time.
你知道，在一个高度相互依存的世界里，有一系列复杂的问题。在供应链上，这就是准时制。
We need to think about how much flex there is in that Just-In-Time chain system and make sure it keeps running. I think it's going to take specificity, and it's going to take knowledge that only the private sector has.
我们需要考虑这个准时制供应链系统有多少弹性，并确保它继续运行。我认为这需要专一性，只有私营部门才会有这样的知识。
The UN can play an important coordinating facilitation role. But the companies know where those commodities are, where they move, how to move them. And that's well a type of public-private collaboration that we have not generally add, in these crises, needs to be put together pretty quickly.
联合国可以发挥重要的协调促进作用。但是这些公司知道商品在哪里，要运送到哪里，怎么运送。这是一种通常不会采用的公私合作形式，在这些危机中，需要迅速地整合在一起。
演习中虚构的经济学家
演习中虚构的经济学家发言：
We are not out of money, yet. But the fact is, we are trending in a dangerous direction and something needs to change.
我们还有钱，还有。但事实是，我们正朝着一个危险的方向发展，有些事情需要改变。
“疫情正在造成一场日益严重的全球金融危机”
Tom Inglesby（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）发言：
So the policy questioned for this board now is how should financial resources be prioritized.
这个委员会现在面临的政策问题是如何优先安排财政资源。
Are there knows that we cannot allow to fail? What is your sense of priorities? We don't have money to pay for all of these urgent problems.
有没有人知道我们不能允许失败？你的优先顺序是什么？我们没有钱来为所有这些紧急问题买单。
高福（中国疾控中心）
高福（中国疾控中心）发言：
So at the moment, we want the funds, right? You need the money. So where is the money? So government can supply some money. A lot of, you know, private sectors, you know, someone sitting here. So you have some money, but now you need a really co-united, centralised efforts.
所以现在，我们想要资金，对吧？你需要钱。那么钱在哪里呢？政府可以提供一些钱。大量的私人机构，他们很多此时正坐在这里（也可以提供钱）。你有钱，但现在你需要一个真正联合的集中的力量。
Latoya Abbott（万豪酒店）
Latoya Abbott（万豪酒店）发言：
Hotels will be experiencing crippling losses to on that, and we know that the hotel business in the cell makes up 5% of the GDP.
酒店将承受巨大的损失，我们知道，这家公司的酒店业务占到国内生产总值的5%。
Stephen Redd（美国疾控中心）发言：
Governments need to be willing to do things that are out of their historical perspective. For the most part, it's really a world footing that we need to be on.
政府需要愿意去做那些从历史角度出发的事情，在很大程度上，这是立足于全世界的。
Brad Connett（汉瑞祥医疗保健产品提供商）
Brad Connett（汉瑞祥医疗保健产品提供商）发言：
We shouldn't underestimate the power of entrepreneurship. We need to escalate that whether it's true governments helping the tax breaks or subsidies of that nature, to attempt to increase the manufacturing of those types of products. It can happen quickly.
我们不应该低估企业家的力量。我们需要升级，政府是否真的通过减税或这种性质的补贴，试图增加这类产品的制造。这可以快速奏效。
A Marshall Type plan, you know, I don't mean to say that exactly. But a Marshall Plan they can go into effect, can stimulate a change very quickly.
马歇尔式的计划，你知道，我并不是有意要这么说，但是马歇尔式的计划能发挥作用，可以非常迅速地刺激变化。
虚拟电视节目主持人
虚拟电视节目主持人发言：
Countries are reacting in different ways as to how best to manage the overwhelming amounts of dis and misinformation circulating over the Internet. In some cases, limited internet shutdowns are being implemented to quell panic.
对于如何最好地管理互联网上流传的大量虚假信息和错误信息，各国的反应各不相同。在某些情况下，为了平息恐慌，会实施限制性互联网关闭。
“错误信息会削弱控制疫情努力”
Tom Inglesby（约翰 · 霍普金斯卫生安全中心）发言：
How much control of information should there be and by whom and how can false information be effectively challenged? And what if that false information is coming from companies or from governments?
应该有多少信息控制，以及由谁来控制，如何才能有效地挑战虚假信息？如果这些虚假信息来自公司呢？或是来自政府呢？
Hasti Taghi（美国全国广播公司）
Hasti Taghi（美国全国广播公司）发言：
And I think it's very important that we make sure that there is concise communication with all health care facility is where these patients are being treated. So that there is a mass panic.
我认为这是非常重要的，我们要确保与所有医疗卫生机构都有简单明确的沟通，病人在哪里接受治疗。这是一场大规模的恐慌。
Matthew Harrington（Edelman公关咨询公司）
Matthew Harrington（Edelman公关咨询公司）发言：
We're at a moment where the social media platforms have to step forward and recognise the moment to assert that they are a technology platform and not a broadcaster is over.
我们正处在这样一个时刻，社交媒体平台必须站出来，他们只承认自己是一个技术平台而不是传播机构的时代已经结束了。
They, in fact, have to be a participant in broadcasting accurate information and partnering with the scientific and health communities to counterweight if not flood the zone of accurate information. Because it's a trick to put the genie back in the bottle of the misinformation and disinformation, is nigh impossible.
事实上，他们必须成为传播准确信息的参与者，与科学和卫生界合作，突出准确信息。因为把精灵放回错误虚假信息瓶子里几乎是不可能的。
Lavan Thiru（新加坡金融管理局）
Lavan Thiru（新加坡金融管理局）发言：
One thing we haven't spoken about, and I'm wondering whether it's time to talk about this is a step up from the part of the governments on enforcement actions against fake news.
有一件事我们没说过，不知道现在是不是讨论这个问题的时候，政府在打击假新闻的执法行动上迈出了一步。
I personally do not believe that try to shut things down in terms of information is either practical or desirable. And we do have, I think, a couple of strategies that are available to us.
就我个人而言，我不认为试图在信息传播角度关闭信息渠道是实际的或可取的。我认为，我们确实有一些可用的策略。
One of which is the flood strategy, second of which is relying and informing and equipping trusted sources of information with the fact so they can then pass it on. But we also need to actually think about a technological answer to this.
一种是洪水策略，另一种是依靠可靠的信息来源，向他们提供信息，用可靠信息源装备他们，这样他们就可以将信息传递下去。但我们也需要从技术上解决这个问题。
“后 记”
The outcome of the CAPS pandemic and event to a one was catastrophic. 65 million people died in the first 18 months. The outbreak was small at first and initially seemed controllable, but then it started spreading in densely crowded and impoverished neighborhoods of megacities.
CAPS 疫情和整个事件的结果是灾难性的。在最初的18个月里有6500万人死亡。开始爆发的规模很小，似乎是可控的，但随后它开始在人口密集、贫困的大城市中蔓延。
From that point on, the spread of the disease was explosive. Within six months, cases were occurring in nearly every country.
从那时起，这种疾病的传播是爆炸性的。在六个月内，几乎每个国家都出现了病例。
The global economy was in a free fall, the GDP down 11%, stock markets around the world plummeted between 20-40% and headed into a downward cycle of fear and low expectation.
全球经济正处于自由落体式的衰落之中，国内生产总值下降了11%，全球股市暴跌20-40%，并陷入了恐慌和低期望的恶性循环。
Businesses were not borrowing. Banks were not lending. Everyone was just hoping to hunker down and weather the storm. Economists say the economic turmoil caused by such a pandemic will last for years, perhaps a decade.
企业没有借贷，银行没有放贷。每个人都希望平安度过这场风暴。经济学家说由疫情引起的经济动荡将持续数年，也许是十年。
The societal impacts, the loss of faith in government, the distrust of news and the breakdown of social cohesion, could last even longer.
还有社会影响，不信任政府、不相信新闻、社会凝聚力瓦解，可能会持续更久。
We have to ask, did this need to be so bad? Are there things we could have done in the 5 to 10 years leading up to the pandemic that would have lessened the catastrophic consequences?
我们不得不问，我们有必要让状况如此糟糕吗？在流行病大爆发之前的5到10年里，我们还能做些什么，来减少灾难性的后果呢？
We believe the answer is YES. So are we as a global community, now finally ready to do the hard work needed to prepare for the next pandemic?
我们相信答案是肯定的。我们作为一个全球共同体，现在终于准备好为下一次流行病大爆发做必要的艰苦工作了吗?
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