【学术讲座】SuReFood 跨学科系列讲座 第九期

Time: 10.00 – 11.00 pm (Amsterdam time)

17.00 – 18.00 pm (Beijing time)

Date: Friday, February 18, 2022

Venue: Microsoft Teams（详见文末）

01

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Temporal analysis of climate change impact on water requirements in viticultural region Valencia DO

气候变化对瓦伦西亚葡萄种植区水需求影响的时域分析

Igor Sirnik

Department of Environmental Sciences, Landscape Architecture and Spatial Planning, Wageningen University and Research

Abstract

Vine is highly sensitive to changes in the climate, particularly temperature changes, which can be reflected in the shift of phenological stages leading to differences in the wine’s characteristics. These alterations clearly show the recent impact of climate change in viticulture. The purpose of this research is to provide an assessment of climate change during the last five decades with future scenarios (up to 2100), and its impact on viticulture in vine growing region Valencia DO (Valencia denominación de origen) in Spain. Adaptation in viticulture is essential and should be based on future climate models. Future environmental conditions in Valencia DO show less favourable climate conditions for quality viticulture. Winegrowers and policymakers should strategically change locations of vineyards, to mitigate the undesirable future climate conditions for vine growing. The preferable areas should be closer to the coast of the Mediterranean Sea or areas with higher altitudes. By following the presented adaptation strategies, there are high probabilities to increase the international competitiveness of Valencia DO and boost the wine economy of the region. 

摘要

葡萄对气候的变化非常敏感，尤其是温度的变化，这可以反映在物候阶段的变化导致葡萄酒的特性的差异。

这些变化清楚地表明了气候变化对葡萄栽培的影响。本研究的目的是评估过去50年的气候变化和未来的气候变化情景(2100年)对西班牙巴伦西亚DO葡萄种植区(Valencia denominación de origen)葡萄栽培的影响。结果表明，适应性的葡萄栽培是必不可少的，而且应该基于未来的气候模型。巴伦西亚未来的环境条件显示出对优质葡萄栽培不利的气候条件。葡萄种植者和政策制定者应该战略性地改变葡萄园的位置，以缓解未来对葡萄生长不利的气候条件。最好是靠近地中海海岸或海拔较高的地区。这将很有可能提高巴伦西亚DO的葡萄国际竞争力，促进该地区的葡萄酒经济。

02

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Direct and indirect impacts of China’s grassland conservation policy on the eco-environmental system: A quasi-natural experiment analysis from Inner Mongolia and Mongolia

中国草地保护政策对生态环境系统的直接和间接影响:
内蒙古和蒙古的准自然实验分析

Min Liu (刘敏)

Chinese Center for Strategic Research of Grassland Agriculture Development (SRGAD), Lanzhou University, China

Abstract

The grassland conservation policy of China is a large and high-profile payment-for-ecosystem-services program, which has been implemented in all pastoral areas of China. We conduct an across national boundary analysis between Inner Mongolia of China and Mongolia to evaluate the policy impact on the animal number, grassland conservation, and greenhouse gas emission, treating the policy as a quasi-natural experiment. Based on the official statistical data and remote sensing data at the county level, the synthetic difference in differences approach is used to conduct the empirical analysis. Results show that China’s grassland conservation policy has substantially depressed the livestock population by around 50% by 2020, however, only slightly improved grassland quality by 3%, measured by NNP. Nevertheless, the policy promoted the conversion of the landforms from grassland to shrubland, while having little impact on the desert. Surprisingly, the grassland conservation policy also has caused the decreases in methane, nitrous oxide and ammonia in the atmosphere indirectly due to the decreases in animal numbers, which was overlooked by scholars and policymakers. Estimated impact sizes on the greenhouse gas emission range from 3% to 13%. These research findings provide scientific evidence on reducing greenhouse gases through controlling livestock production.

摘要

中国的草原保护政策是一项规模宏大、备受瞩目的生态系统服务有偿使用计划，已在全国所有牧区实施。本研究以中国内蒙古自治区为研究对象，以准自然实验的方式，对内蒙古自治区的动物数量、草原保护和温室气体排放等方面进行了跨国界分析。在官方统计数据和县级遥感数据的基础上，采用差异中的综合差异法进行实证分析。结果表明，到2020年，中国草地保护政策使牲畜数量大幅减少了约50%，但草地质量仅略有改善，仅提高了3% (NNP)。尽管如此，该政策促进了地貌由草地向灌丛的转变，但对沙漠的影响不大。令人惊讶的是，草原保护政策也间接导致了大气中甲烷、一氧化二氮和氨气的减少，原因是动物数量的减少，这被学者和政策制定者所忽视。对温室气体排放的影响估计在3%至13%之间。这些研究发现为通过控制畜牧业生产减少温室气体排放提供了科学依据。

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