【TIO 太和观察家】The New Economic Frontier 3.0

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☉ 太和智库线上英文刊物《太和观察家》2023年11月刊第38期原创文章，转载请注明出处。

☉ This article is from the November issue of TI Observer (TIO), an online publication of Taihe Institute. Please indicate the source if you hope to share this article.

☉ 点击“阅读原文”，查看本期精彩内容。（文件加载需要时间，请耐心等待）

☉ Click "Read More" to access the full text of TIO vol. 38. (It may take some time to download the PDF text.)

正文1747字，读完约需10分钟。

Wordcount: 1747. The article will take about 10 minutes to read.

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高山

Gulshan Bibi

复旦大学国际关系与公共事务学院博士研究生

太和青年观察家

Ph.D. candidate, School of International Relations and Public Affairs, Fudan University, Shanghai, China

TI Youth Observer

Introduction

China's enduring economic influence stands out in global economic and geopolitical dynamic shifts. China's role as a key commercial partner for numerous nations and focus on collaborative initiatives, particularly in the context of China-ASEAN relations, underscores the significance of multilateral approaches when evaluating the evolving international landscape.
The international system is dynamic, and the distribution of power, just as prone to change. The balance between unipolarity and multipolarity depends on geopolitical developments, economic shifts, and changes in the capabilities of world states. In contrast to unipolarity, multipolarity helps maintain a balance of power in the international system, creates a system of checks and balances, prevents conflicts by reducing the likelihood of aggressive actions, and allows for diverse perspectives and approaches to global issues. It also fosters competition among major powers, which drives innovation, economic development, and technological advancements. A multipolar system may be more resilient to disruptions in that the impact of a regional crisis can be buffered by the presence of other major powers with their own capabilities and resources.
While multipolarity has upsides, it is important to note that it also comes with its own challenges. The potential for power struggles, competition, and coordination difficulties risks creating tensions and conflicts. Effectively managing a multipolar world requires diplomacy, cooperation, and the establishment of mechanisms for conflict resolution and collective decision-making. In this scenario, as the world shifts into a new phase of multipolarity, where do emerging powers like China stand?
In geopolitical discussions, China's remarkable economic rise has long been a key point. An often debated concept in international politics is "Peak China." This idea explores whether China has reached the height of its economic power or not. Technically, the term describes a turning point in China's economic, political, and geopolitical trajectory. The concept is analogous to the idea of "peak oil," referring to the point at which global oil production reaches a ceiling before entering a period of decline. In context, "Peak China" does not necessarily imply a decline in absolute terms, but rather a trajectory shift or a peak in certain geopolitical and economic indicators.
China has experienced rapid economic growth over the past few decades, and has also made significant strides in innovation and technology. This rapid economic growth has led to a substantial increase in bilateral commercial ties with Western nations and ASEAN countries.. Economic collaboration is a cornerstone of China-ASEAN relations. The establishment of the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area (CAFTA) in 2010 marked a significant milestone, promoting trade liberalization and economic integration. Over the years, China emerged as ASEAN's largest trading partner, and vice versa, fostering a mutually beneficial economic interdependence. As part of the China-ASEAN economic collaboration, ACFTA 3.0 was launched at the 25^th ASEAN-China Summit in November 2022 and is scheduled for conclusion by the end of 2024. This collaboration represents a tangible development into an increasingly multipolar world. More recently, the 4^th round of the ASEAN-China FTA 3.0 upgrade negotiations took place in Bandung, Indonesia throughout October 25-29, 2023. It was concluded during the 4^th round of discussions that both sides would work to complete as much of the Agreement by 2024, while still accounting for the economic needs of stakeholders. Presently the negotiations appear to be progressing positively.
China and the ASEAN countries are closely aligned in physical proximity, and in a world full of upheavals and changes. They have managed to maintain peace and calm in the region. More specifically, they collectively met the COVID-19 challenge by supporting one another through tough times—a tangible example of China's fraternal bonds in the face of hardship. They allowed markets to remain accessible during the pandemic, achieved significant strides in constructing the new International Land-Sea Trade Corridor, and progressed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). China and ASEAN have maintained close communication, respected each other's developmental pathways, and considered each other's primary concerns through a bevy of geopolitical changes.
In regards to economic collaboration, China and ASEAN countries are currently discussing a list of 39 initiatives which are expected to generate fruitful outcomes. For both sides, this has created fresh development prospects. As stated in the agenda for the 4^th round of discussions, China intends to encourage cooperative efforts between BRI and the Indo-Pacific vision of ASEAN. China has invited ASEAN nations to utilize the ASEAN-China Cooperation Fund and collaborate on the RCEP's implementation. To assist the ASEAN nations in establishing and preserving a nuclear-weapon-free zone (NWFZ) throughout Southeast Asia, China is prepared to take the initiative and sign the Protocol to the Treaty on the Southeast Asia NWFZ. Together with ASEAN nations, China has committed to advancing the Code of Conduct (COC) in the South China Sea negotiations and the full and effective implementation of the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC). Moreover, China seeks to improve practical cooperation in the areas of environmental cooperation, fisheries, transnational crime prevention, maritime science and technology, search and rescue, and navigation security. China also announced that it would make an additional donation to the ASEAN-China Cooperation Fund in 2024.
Besides that, China supports capacity-building activities with the ASEAN Center for Climate Change. It plans to launch the ASEAN-China Initiative on Climate-Resilient Friendship Cities and low-carbon community development projects to raise awareness of climate change among the public.
According to the ASEAN Community Vision 2050, the ASEAN Economic Community by 2025 shall be "highly integrated and cohesive; competitive, innovative and dynamic; with enhanced connectivity and sectoral cooperation; and a more resilient, inclusive, and people-oriented community, integrated with the global economy." This indicates the broader vision for future China-ASEAN collaboration.
China and ASEAN need to improve connectivity, strengthen their cooperation on supply chains and industry, and push regional economic integration to conclude the negotiations on ACFTA 3.0 by 2024. China's commitment to encouraging the BRI and the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific (AOIP) for the benefit of both parties consequently provides an optimistic perspective on future bilateral cooperation. China has also indicated support for active involvement of ASEAN nations in the 3^rd Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation. Additionally, to open up new areas of collaboration with ASEAN, China has promoted the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Hainan Free Trade Port by utilizing their geographic and legislative advantages.
Globally, innovation and economic structure are undergoing significant changes as a result of a new scientific and technical transformation. China is committed to collaborating with ASEAN nations to leverage transformative opportunities, fortify scientific, technological, and innovation cooperation, and quicken the modernization of established industries and the growth of the developing world to foster innovation potential, generate new growth engines, and establish a competitive advantage.
To assist the implementation of the Joint Initiative on Advancing the China-ASEAN Science, Technology, and Innovation Enhancing Program, China has pledged to provide at least USD 10 million by 2025. China also intends to intensify its cooperation on new energy vehicles and photovoltaics and start a ministerial conversation on industry with ASEAN. China is heavily invested in ensuring the inaugural China-ASEAN Clean Energy Week a success, and will likely continue to host the Artificial Intelligence Cooperation Forum.
ASEAN member states are convinced that maintaining regional stability and fostering an atmosphere which is conducive to development are the main drivers for China and ASEAN's continued growth. China hopes to collaborate with ASEAN to support the implementation of the Global Security Initiative (GSI), prevent a new Cold War or zero-sum mentality from poisoning development and cooperation, and effectively address both traditional and non-traditional security challenges. China is prepared to collaborate constructively with ASEAN nations to develop text-based COC discussions and provide institutional protection for transforming the South China Sea into a zone of friendship, peace, and cooperation. In addition to battling telecom and cyber fraud as well as illicit online gambling, China supports the implementation of the China-ASEAN Work Plan on Cooperation in the Field of Non-Traditional Security Issues (2024-2028).
China has endeavored to assume a more proactive role in international institutions and global governance, against the background of the conventional hegemony of Western countries. This covers its involvement in institutions including the World Trade Organization (WTO) and initiatives aimed at restructuring international governance frameworks. However, it is crucial to remember that talks about "Peak China" are frequently theoretical, and the specifics of any prospective peak date and makeup would depend on a complex web of social, political, economic, and environmental variables. Furthermore, the notion of "Peak China" denotes a shift to a new stage in China's development rather than an abrupt downturn or collapse. China's future development path is contingent upon continuous global dynamics. China's rapid economic expansion also directly benefits the global economy by increasing global incomes, rather than posing a threat. Difficulties and intricacies emerge along with the ascent of any significant power, but the Chinese leadership knows how to manage these issues.
Given the rapidly changing nature of global geopolitics and economics, it is advisable for China to keep an eye on the latest developments and impacts on the world. Nonetheless, the extent of China's economic influence will continue to be significant. For example, the U.S. used to be the biggest bilateral lender and commercial force in the world. This is the case despite that only 57 nations enjoy the status of being China's top commercial partner, compared to over 100 countries that regard the U.S. as such. Over the past ten years China has lent USD 1 trillion to infrastructure projects through its BRI, while the U.S. has reduced aid to many nations. As China expands its influence globally, the notion of "Peak China" might be used to describe a point where China's geopolitical influence reaches its zenith, signaling a shift in global power dynamics, increased international competition, or challenges to China's efforts to expand its influence. This is the time when the world must choose between unity and division. The Western world must understand that globalization is not an option. It is the inevitable reality. While tensions are growing, threats to global peace are accumulating, and war has returned to the Eurasian continent, the world needs more initiatives like China-ASEAN collaboration. While challenges persist, the commitment to dialogue, cooperation, and mutual benefit can propel the relationship forward and the future holds the promise of continued collaboration. It may also lay the groundwork for economic opportunities that extend beyond political considerations.

The above contents only represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

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太和智库线上英文刊物《太和观察家》（TI Observer）致力于促进中外沟通交流，弥合“理解鸿沟”。

TI Observer (TIO) is an online monthly English publication produced by Taihe Institute. TIO is dedicated to promoting transnational interaction and mutual understanding, thus bridging the gap of misunderstanding and bringing China and the world closer to each other.

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