【TIO 太和观察家】China-US Relations Re-Examined

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☉ 太和智库线上英文刊物《太和观察家》2023年12月刊第39期原创文章，转载请注明出处。

☉ This article is from the December issue of TI Observer (TIO), an online publication of Taihe Institute. Please indicate the source if you hope to share this article.

☉ 点击“阅读原文”，查看本期精彩内容。（文件加载需要时间，请耐心等待）

☉ Click "Read More" to access the full text of TIO vol. 39. (It may take some time to download the PDF text.)

正文1995字，读完约需10分钟。

Wordcount: 1995. The article will take about 10 minutes to read.

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郭新宁

Guo Xinning

太和智库高级研究员

清华大学公共管理学院教授

Senior Fellow of Taihe Institute

Professor, School of Public Policy and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing, China

Introduction

The year 2023 saw a roller coaster of highs and lows between China and the US. Initially there was hope after a promising meeting in Bali in 2022, but tensions later heated up, sparking global concerns. However, a pivotal meeting in Woodside in November 2023 provided a glimmer of hope for more stable interactions. As both nations navigate a delicate path, coexistence emerged as the only way forward, challenging the conventional competitive narrative.
Prior to 2023, there were hopes of a thaw in China-US relations after a fruitful meeting between the Chinese and US Presidents in Bali, Indonesia, on November 14, 2022. The two leaders showed a strong desire to put China-US relations back on track. However, initial developments in 2023 seemed to go against the expectations of most international analysts. Having witnessed ups and downs, international society, especially those concerned with global peace and development, voiced apprehensions and anxieties over whether the two countries could steer the relationship out of turbulent waters.
In the latter half of the year, the world breathed a collective sigh of relief when the Chinese and US Presidents held a meeting in Woodside on November 15, 2023. According to Xinhua News Agency, the two heads of state "had a candid and in-depth exchange of views on strategic and overarching issues critical to the direction of China-US relations and major issues affecting world peace and development." The two presidents "acknowledged the efforts of their respective teams to discuss the development of principles related to China-US relations since the meeting in Bali." They "stressed the importance of nations treating each other with respect and finding a way to live alongside each other peacefully, and of maintaining open lines of communication, preventing conflict, upholding the UN Charter, cooperating in areas of shared interest, and responsibly managing competitive aspects of the relationship."
Both China and the US understand the significance of a stable bilateral relationship for their respective national interests, as well as global peace and development. However, it will take time to acknowledge and adapt to new realities in the relationship, fill the gap in mutual confidence, reach and foster joint visions for future development, and build the trust needed to assure normal and steady development.
A New Normal Emerged in China's Responses to US Antagonism
The path of the China-US relationship since the ice-breaking trip to Beijing by President Nixon around 50 years ago has been overall positive, but with many twists and turns. Until recently, a "new normal" has gradually come into being in the interactions between the two countries, characterized by more "assertive" reactions from China in response to a more aggressive US foreign policy. This shift is a reaction to changing US perceptions and the corresponding policies toward China.
During the Cold War, the USSR was seen as the biggest threat by the US and the driving force behind President Nixon's trip to Beijing. China, amid tensions with the USSR, responded positively, leading to the de facto strategic relationship between China and the US. After the collapse of the USSR in the 1990s, the US was left as a unipolar superpower. The 9/11 terrorist attacks in 2001 prompted the US to refocus on international terrorism as the preeminent global threat, and to seek China's cooperation, which aligned with China's national security concerns. Common threats drove the two countries to work together.
As the US shifted focus away from the war on terror, threat perceptions changed. China became increasingly perceived as a threat. In the February 2015 "National Security Strategy" under the Obama administration, worries were voiced, but the emphasis remained on cooperation with China. "The scope of our cooperation with China is unprecedented, even as we remain alert to China's military modernization and reject any role for intimidation in resolving territorial disputes." In December 2017, the "National Security Strategy" issued by the Trump administration characterized China and Russia as top challengers, and stated that "China and Russia challenge American power, influence, and interests, attempting to erode American security and prosperity." This view was further emphasized in the October 2022 "National Security Strategy" under the Biden administration, identifying that "The PRC is the only competitor with both the intent to reshape the international order and, increasingly, the economic, diplomatic, military, and technological power to advance that objective." The gradual escalating tone in these official documents illustrates the gradual antagonistic shift of the United States' rhetoric and foreign policy towards China.
Biden has stated the US does not seek to contain China, but actions paint a different narrative. The Biden administration introduced an unambiguous China policy in its first "National Security Strategy," which stated "strategy toward the PRC is threefold: 1) to invest in the foundations of our strength at home – our competitiveness, our innovation, our resilience, our democracy, 2) to align our efforts with our network of allies and partners, acting with common purpose and in common cause, and 3) compete responsibly with the PRC to defend our interests and build our vision for the future. The first two elements – invest and align – are described in the previous section and are essential to out-competing the PRC in the technological, economic, political, military, intelligence, and global governance domains." The document did not use the word "containment," but the explicit context describes a containment strategy.The China-US Relationship Is Nuanced
Despite tensions, maintaining a stable bilateral relationship is in the interests of both countries and the greater world. Recent developments have shown that complexities in the China-US relationship should not be evaluated with traditional major power political paradigms.
The Biden administration often says "competition" when describing the China-US relationship, and this mindset is reflected in various official documents and speeches from senior US officials. Despite this stance, "competition" fails to depict the full context of China-US relations. Compared to any other bilateral relationship, the China-US relationship is far more significant in terms of the domains it covers, the extent of mutual interdependence that has developed in various fields, the necessity for a stable evolution for the interests of both nations, and the overall well-being of the greater world.
There are some sharp differences between China and the US in terms of national interests, political systems, economy, and ideology. On the other hand, the two nations share many commonalities that encourage cooperation. As two important members of the United Nations Security Council, the two nations share common responsibilities and must cooperate rather than compete to preserve global and regional peace and stability. This is extremely important considering the turbulent security situation of the contemporary world. Other pending challenges, global and regional, such as climate change and public health, remain, and require multilateral cooperation to tackle. Additionally, mutually beneficial economic interdependence between the two nations, as bilateral markets and investment sources, necessitates dialogue and cooperation.
As a mentality, "competition" may be a lens that misleads America's understanding of China's behaviors in the international system by fostering pessimistic misconceptions of intent. For example, China, Iran, and Saudi Arabia issued a trilateral joint statement in March 2023, declaring that the latter two had agreed to restore diplomatic relations, signifying the end of long-held hostility between the two countries. Yet, China's role in delivering this peace was seen pessimistically by many US observers as a move to compete for regional influence that undermined US interests.
As an approach, "competition" will not be helpful in the establishment of much needed mutual confidence. While the US sees China as a "pacing challenge," China is wary of America's policy intentions towards China, especially when the US has listed "out-competing China" at the top of its global priorities. "Competition" will only serve to enlarge this gap of confidence. As stated by He Yafei, former Chinese Vice Foreign Minister, "Strategic competition is not what China wants. That is a misjudgment based on US retrospection about bilateral relations over the years – which may not change in the near term. The crux now is how to cage the differences and arrest the free-fall, while at the same time striving for cooperation via dialogue and confidence-building measures."
In handling disputes the two nations face, "competition" can only lead to consequences that both wish to avoid. The US has obstinately pursued some policies irrespective of China's national interests on issues vital to China's sovereignty. These policies have become a major stumbling block in the development of China-US relations. Inevitably, forcing "competition" will escalate China-US tensions and conflicts in a vicious cycle to the detriment of all.
At Woodside on November 15, 2023, the Chinese President stated, "In this respect, the number one question for us is: are we adversaries, or partners? This is the fundamental and overarching issue. The logic is quite simple. If one sees the other side as a primary competitor, the most consequential geopolitical challenge and a pacing threat, it will only lead to misinformed policy making, misguided actions, and unwanted results." The China-US relationship has evolved beyond a reductive mindset of "competition" that fails to encapsulate a nuanced relationship which requires contextual long-term strategic vision to unpack.Coexistence Is the Only Way
China takes a nuanced view of the complex China-US relationship and has refused to use the word "competition" to define the relationship. At the Woodside meeting, the Chinese President said, "We are in an era of challenges and changes. It is also an era of hope. The world needs China and the United States to work together for a better future. We, the largest developing country and the largest developed country, must handle our relations well. In a world of changes and chaos, it is ever more important for us to have the mind, assume the vision, shoulder the responsibility, and play the role that come along with our status as major countries." He later added, "China is ready to be a partner and friend of the United States. The fundamental principles that we follow in handling China-US relations are mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation."
Although the US has continued to use "competition" in its policies towards China, there seem to be some subtle changes. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking at the Council on Foreign Relations, June 28, 2023, stated that "this is more about getting to a place where we have peaceful and maybe somewhat more productive coexistence between us, because the bottom line is this: China's not going away, we're not going away, so in the first instance we have to find a way to coexist and coexist peacefully." It is unclear whether there will be a significant shift in US policy towards China, but Blinken's point illuminates at least some common ground between the two countries.
Both China and the US have expressed desire for a steady bilateral relationship, however, this will be difficult, taking into account of past experiences. There is no easy remedy, and sincere efforts will be required to coexist and jointly tackle imminent global issues.
Regarding the China-US relationship, during the summit meeting in Woodside, the Chinese President observed that "Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed, and one country's success is an opportunity for the other." The world should maintain logical optimism that the US and China can coexist peacefully. For the sake of China, the US, and the greater world, we must all live, let, and respect each other.
The above contents only represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

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太和智库线上英文刊物《太和观察家》（TI Observer）致力于促进中外沟通交流，弥合“理解鸿沟”。

TI Observer (TIO) is an online monthly English publication produced by Taihe Institute. TIO is dedicated to promoting transnational interaction and mutual understanding, thus bridging the gap of misunderstanding and bringing China and the world closer to each other.

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