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韩桦
Han Hua
·北京对话联合发起人兼秘书长
·Co-Founder and Secretary-General of Beijing Club for International Dialogue
Introduction
The annual Valdai Discussion Club meeting provides a window into Russia's perspectives and the image the nation seeks to project internationally. The meeting also sheds light on Russia's view of the global landscape and, more importantly, the government's vision of the future.
The Valdai Discussion Club convened its annual meeting at the scenic Polyana 1389 hotel complex in Sochi, Russia, on November 4-7, 2024. This venue, perched 1,389 meters above sea level and surrounded by the natural splendor of the Caucasus Mountains, was transformed into a hub for intellectual and diplomatic engagement. In the four-day conference, more than 100 participants, including representatives of think tanks, universities, and governments from over 50 nations, discussed pressing challenges shaping the world. The club's overarching theme reflected its mission: fostering candid and constructive dialogue to create solutions to global problems.
The Valdai Discussion Club, since its inception in 2004, has evolved into one of Russia's most significant forums for geopolitical and strategic discussion. It derives its name from Lake Valdai, where the inaugural meeting was held. Initially conceived as a platform to enhance understanding of Russia's domestic and foreign policies, the club now serves as a prominent think tank, drawing intellectuals, policymakers, and analysts to deliberate on issues that transcend borders. The conference was meticulously organized. Between November 4 and 7, ten thematic seminars tackled subjects ranging from conflict resolution and artificial intelligence to the evolving role of the Global South, providing delegates with opportunities to engage directly with prominent figures such as Russia's Deputy Prime Minister, Foreign Minister, the Deputy Chief of Staff to the President, and a spokesperson from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. These discussions culminated in an interaction with Russian President Vladimir Putin, a fixture at Valdai annual meetings. Putin's remarks highlighted Russia's stance on global challenges, offering insights into its geopolitical strategies.
Conflict Resolution in the Post-Globalization Era One of the primary topics at the Valdai meeting was the challenge of resolving conflicts in an era where globalization is no longer the unifying force it once was. The retreat of globalization has left behind fractured economies and political systems, creating a fertile ground for conflicts. From the Ukraine conflict to Gaza crisis, participants explored how traditional mechanisms of diplomacy could be adapted to address contemporary issues. Panelists emphasized that the post-globalization world demanded innovative approaches to conflict resolution. Today's conflicts are shaped by economic competition, resource scarcity, and cultural divides. The discussion underscored the importance of regional solutions to regional problems, a theme that resonated throughout the conference. The Eurasian Security Framework The concept of a new Eurasian security framework was a focal point of discussion. This paradigm seeks to redefine security not as a zero-sum game but as a shared endeavor among nations with diverse interests. Eurasia, home to major powers like China, Russia, and India, holds the potential to serve as a model for multipolar cooperation. The seminar on this topic emphasized the need for mutual trust, transparent communication, and mechanisms to address security concerns without external interference. Historically, Eurasia has been a battleground for empires and ideologies. Today, it presents an opportunity for collaborative growth. Russia's role in spearheading this framework was highlighted as pivotal, particularly in fostering dialogue among Eurasian nations. 21st-Century Civilizational Challenges The session on civilizational challenges explored how cultural and historical legacies shape modern societies. Participants debated whether the concept of "civilization" is still relevant in an era of rapid technological and social change. They concluded that understanding civilizations through a 21st-century lens is crucial for fostering global harmony. This discussion also touched on the role of education and cultural exchange in promoting mutual understanding. By embracing the diversity of civilizations, the world can move toward a more inclusive and equitable future. Insights from Putin's Address: Rhetoric and Reality President Vladimir Putin's address was, as expected, the highlight of the meeting. Known for his unpredictable timing, President Putin lived up to his reputation. Delegates were instructed to assemble in the hotel lobby at 5 p.m. for coffee, but the wait extended for hours. Many stood at small cocktail tables, engaging in conversations that ranged from spirited debates to subdued exchanges. It was only after 7 p.m. that security checks began, and attendees were finally ushered into the venue. I was fortunate to secure a seat in the fourth row on the left. Also known for his ability to blend philosophical musings with sharp political commentary, Putin used this platform to reinforce Russia's vision of a multipolar world. His remarks ranged from global conflicts to personal anecdotes, weaving a narrative that underscored Russia's relevance in global affairs. One of Putin's central themes was the rejection of unipolarity. He argued that the era of Western dominance is over and that a multipolar world is emerging, characterized by regional powers asserting their influence. This perspective aligns with Russia's foreign policy, which emphasizes sovereignty, mutual respect, and strategic partnerships. Putin cited examples from history to illustrate the dangers of hegemony. Drawing on the collapse of empires, he warned against the hubris of believing in the invincibility of any single power. His vision of a multipolar world is not merely theoretical; it reflects Russia's ongoing efforts to strengthen ties with nations across Asia, Africa, and Latin America. During his address, Putin delivered several noteworthy remarks. He emphasized that hegemony has no place in the emerging international order and highlighted the value of Eastern philosophy in promoting peace, stating, "I win, and you win too." Addressing the Russia-Ukraine conflict, he rejected claims that the world would be better without Russia, stating firmly, "Russia's very existence guarantees that the world will retain its wide color gamut, diversity, and complexity." On the subject of the US elections, the moderator noted that Putin has worked with five US presidents. When asked which president was the most interesting, Putin replied diplomatically, "They are all interesting people. I can hardly imagine a man getting the highest political office in one of the world's leading countries while being mediocre, dumb, or uninteresting." He went on to defend former US President George W. Bush, often maligned by US media for being unintelligent, saying, "Judging by my experience with him, he is just as smart as anyone in this room." Reflecting on George Bush Sr., Putin recalled how Bush once admitted that boycotting the Moscow Olympics had been a significant mistake - a sentiment Putin lightheartedly dismissed, remarking, "But so what? This did not change anything. Faced with outside pressure, the International Olympic Committee literally turned into a circus." Turning to Trump, Putin praised his courage in defending shared values but refrained from speculating on his potential future governance. "I would like to congratulate him on his election as President of the United States of America," Putin remarked. Reflecting on the past 20 years, Putin remarked on the extraordinary pace of change and suggested that the next two decades could be even more challenging. He noted that the trajectory of these changes would depend on numerous variables - factors that the Valdai Discussion Club participants were dedicated to analyzing and understanding. In addition to the gravity of his speech, Putin also injected humor into his address, endearing himself to the audience. When asked about his internet usage, he quipped that he prefers Russian-developed systems, drawing laughter and applause. Such moments humanized the Russian leader, offering a contrast to his often-stern public image. During the meeting, I had the opportunity to ask President Putin what a multipolar world might look like in 2049, coinciding with China's centenary. He envisioned a balanced world where the interests of all participants in international exchanges are considered. He stressed the need for a system fostering mutual understanding and compromise, and highlighted BRICS nations as key driving forces of this vision and Global South development. Putin expressed commitment - on behalf of Russia and other BRICS members - to peaceful development and creating conditions for global prosperity, urging collective efforts toward this goal despite the unpredictability of the future. The Valdai Report: A Blueprint for the Future Each year, the Valdai Discussion Club releases a report that encapsulates its key findings and proposals. The 2024 report, "The World from the Bottom Up or The Masterpieces of Eurasian Architecture," presented a comprehensive analysis of global trends. It argued that the post-WWII order is in decline, leaving the world at a crossroads. Instead of transitioning to a cohesive global system, humanity faces the risk of regressing into chaos. The report drew parallels between the current era and the pre-WWII period, when the absence of a global framework led to widespread conflict. It cautioned against repeating past mistakes, emphasizing the importance of collaboration over confrontation. The report outlined seven principles for fostering unity among non-Western nations. These principles emphasize diversity, mutual respect, and localized solutions to regional issues. By adhering to these guidelines, Eurasia could serve as a model for global stability. A significant portion of the report focused on economic sovereignty. The reliance on the US dollar and Western financial systems was identified as a vulnerability for many nations. The report advocated for alternative mechanisms, such as the use of local currencies and the expansion of trade within the BRICS framework. While progress has been made, challenges remain in implementing these strategies on a global scale. One of the most discussed topics was the role of the Global South in shaping the future. As nations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America assert their independence from traditional power centers, the dynamics of international relations are being redefined. The Valdai Discussion Club emphasized the importance of empowering these nations to contribute to a multipolar world. The discussions highlighted the need to bridge divides between the Global South and established powers. By fostering dialogue and cooperation, the world can move toward a more equitable distribution of power and resources. Participants also explored the potential of technology to drive growth in the Global South. From digital infrastructure to artificial intelligence, innovation was identified as a key enabler of development. However, concerns about data sovereignty and cybersecurity were also raised, underscoring the need for robust regulatory frameworks. Valdai and Beyond The Valdai Discussion Club has cemented its place as a premier forum for global dialogue. This year, the Valdai Discussion Club welcomed over 100 experts from more than 50 countries and regions, reinforcing its mission to foster understanding and cooperation in an increasingly fragmented world. By addressing critical issues such as security, economic sovereignty, and civilizational challenges, the club provides a platform for diverse perspectives. Known for its "family-like" discussions, the annual event has become a tradition for many participants, with some attending for over a decade. Since the pandemic, however, the Valdai Discussion Club seems to have entered a "family refresh" phase, introducing more new members starting last year. After a few days of intense, close-knit discussions in the secluded mountain setting - filled with sessions, post-meeting reflections, interviews, and continued debates over meals or at the gym - it didn't take long for everyone, myself included, to bond like family. We now look forward eagerly to our next reunion.
The above contents only represent the views of the authors, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.
TI Observer (TIO) is an online monthly English publication produced by Taihe Institute. TIO is dedicated to promoting transnational interaction and mutual understanding, thus bridging the gap of misunderstanding and bringing China and the world closer to each other.