Club提要：南非国家行政学院院长、北京对话特约专家布萨尼·恩卡韦尼（Busani Ngcaweni）日前接受CGTN Dialogue（对话）节目主持人许钦铎专访。双方探讨了金砖国家及全球南方国家面临的挑战，特别是他们寻求减少对美元依赖和推动金融体系民主化的需要。布萨尼强调了美国政策对全球经济的深远影响，以及国际社会对改革现有金融体系的呼声。
Xu Qinduo: Welcome to Dialogue, Busani. What do people identify as probably the major challenge to the Global South? We're talking about the BRICS, mostly developing countries here.许钦铎：欢迎做客Dialogue节目，布萨尼。全球南方国家面临的主要的挑战是什么？这包括金砖国家等广大发展中国家。Busani: What happens to the dollar as a reserve currency has a major impact on countries of the Global South at different levels. Countries use it for trade when they settle their accounts when they are trading. So whatever happens to it and its value has an impact on their ability to settle.布萨尼：美元作为储备货币所带来的变化在不同层面上对全球南方国家产生了重大影响。在贸易中，各国贸易时使用美元结算。所以无论美元发生什么，其价值波动都会影响各个国家结算的能力。In the majority of cases what happens to it also tends to affect the strength of the currencies in countries in the Global South, to the extent that you may be a country that may be dependent on commodities, or you may have some kind of an infant industry that has emerged, and we are exporting those goods and we are settling then those accounts using the dollar. What happens to the dollar will have a direct impact. There are many countries in the Global South that are industrializing. They have to import equipment and machinery and if they do so when their currencies are very weak, it becomes very expensive for them to do so because they are trading in the dollar. We understand that most of the challenges even of inflation and the value of the currency in the Global South are actually imported. It depends on what happens in the United States.在大多数情况下，美元的波动也往往会影响全球南方国家的货币价值，比如依赖大宗商品的国家、或者有新兴工业的国家，在出口商品以及结算时都需要用美元。美元的走势将对他们产生直接影响。全球南方有许多国家正在进行工业化，他们必须进口设备和机器，如果他们在本国货币非常疲软的情况下这样做，进口对他们来说就会变得非常昂贵，因为他们用美元进行交易。我们知道，通货膨胀和货币贬值等全球南方面临的大多数挑战，实际上都来自外部，取决于美国的情况和决定。In South Africa where I come from, for example, you can see that our own inflation and interest rates track very closely what happens in the US. But as we know what is money used for. Money is used, you save the money, you exchange when you are trading with other people, you also take loans in particular currencies. When weaker economies are then using a particular currency that can shift for their own domestic issues, it ends up having an impact on your own real economy as a country. It then becomes a challenge and we've seen it happens in many countries. It happens in South Africa, in Latin America. It even happens really in Europe and countries like Japan because it has a direct impact on the real economies of those countries, because it is a reserve currency. That is why the 2008 Global Economic Crisis which was essentially a banking crisis of the United States. But as a reserve currency country, it ended up affecting the entire global economy. That is why there has to be a rethink of the international financial architecture.例如，在我的家乡南非，通货膨胀率和利率与美国的相关数据走势高度吻合。我们知道钱的用途：钱是用来花的，你存钱，与他人交易时用来支付，也会用某些货币计价贷款。当较弱的经济体使用某种特定的货币时，这也会转换为他们自己的国内问题，最终对国家的实体经济产生影响，然后就会成为一种挑战。这种情况在很多国家都发生过，比如南非、拉丁美洲，甚至在欧洲和日本等国也发生过。因为美元是一种储备货币，对这些国家的实体经济产生了直接影响。这就是为什么2008年全球经济危机虽然本质上是美国的银行业危机，但作为储备货币国家，美国最终影响了整个全球经济，这就是为什么我们必须重新构思国际金融架构。
布萨尼参加北京对话相关活动
Xu Qinduo: The stability of this international financial, monetary system, mostly because of the appreciation of the US Dollars over the past couple of years, and it is very strong, that caused a lot of challenges for other countries, in particular developing countries. What about paying debt in US dollar terms?许钦铎：国际金融货币体系的稳定性，主要是由于过去几年美元的升值，美元非常坚挺，给其他国家，特别是发展中国家带来了很多挑战。您如何看待使用美元偿还债务?Busani: Well, debt is a big issue for many developing countries. Some of them currently are looking for resources because they may have fiscal deficits. Some of them need to fund real infrastructure. You may remember that about 15 years ago or so, there was a global alliance on the issue of debt relief for many countries in the Global South. My own reading of the situation is that, in the next five years, we will be back there, we will now be talking about debt relief precisely because of what you are saying. Because in the majority of cases, it is unsustainable. And developing countries have a challenge, the challenge of development. There's pressure amongst the citizens and other stakeholders for them to develop to industrialize, to build infrastructure. In many instances, this money has to be borrowed because we need capital to deploy in order to industrialize, to build infrastructure and so on. In terms of this capital, if it's a dollar-denominated, eventually will be felt by these economies. Hence in my own view, in the next five years, we will see a resurgence of the conversation that was taking place in the past decade or so of debt relief. And at the current rate, I think in the next five years that will be the biggest campaign globally, that there has to be debt relief for countries in the Global South.布萨尼：对许多发展中国家来说，债务是个大问题。一些发展中国家现在正在寻找资源，因为他们可能出现了财政赤字。其中一些国家需要投资实体基础设施建设。你可能记得，多国大约15年前就全球债务减免问题成立了一个联盟，以解决全球南方国家的这一难处【编者注：全球消除贫困联盟（GCAP）在2004年正式成立，但是这里所说的联盟（Alliance）并非特指某一机构，而是一场正在进行的国际运动，莫桑比克等国也因此获得了债务减免】。我个人的看法是，在未来的5年里，我们将重回债务减免的话题。因为在大多数情况下，债务规模是不可持续的。发展中国家面临着如何发展的挑战。公民和其他利益相关方都希望推动发展、工业化、建设基础设施。在许多情况下，这些钱需（向他国）借贷，因为需要部署资金才能推动工业化的实现、基础设施的建设等等。如果这些资本以美元计价的话，这最终将会对实体经济产生影响。因此，在我看来，在未来5年里，这是全球面临的最大挑战，必须对全球南方国家减免债务。
图源：全球消除贫困联盟（GCAP）官网
保罗·巴蒂斯塔 图源：互联网
Xu Qinduo: As one Former Executive Director at IMF, Paulo Batista, pointed out, the use and abuse of the US Dollar’s privileged position is leading to a loss of legitimacy of the prevailing international monetary system. On the one hand, the US Dollar is a public good; on the other hand, you do see legitimacy issue, you agree?许钦铎：正如国际货币基金组织前执行董事保罗·巴蒂斯塔（Paulo Batista）所指出的那样，利用和滥用美元特权地位导致现行国际货币体系丧失了合法性。一方面，美元是一个公共产品；另一方面，你也的确看到了合法性问题。你同意这种说法吗?Busani: The IMF senior personnel was very correct because that feeling is there and you can see it come from someone who works within the system. There's an expectation in many countries that you have to democratize the global financial system. because the trend is, even with the IMF being part of that system, it’s not being democratized. It's based on those who've got hegemony, those who've got power, those who've got the influence, which means that your voice as a small country that is desperate to develop, you are unable to influence. Or the decisions they make are not in the best interest of all countries, regardless of the sizes of their economies and so on. So it is correct that there's an abuse because by using unilateralism in deciding whether we are sanctioning, whether you are freezing people's assets and so on, you then undermine the legitimacy of the system. That is why the calls especially in Africa is also democratize the International Financial system.布萨尼：国际货币基金组织的高级官员说得非常正确，这种感觉确实存在，你也可以通过这位国际货币基金组织内部人员的说法看到这一点。许多国家都期望让全球金融体系变得更加民主化。即使国际货币基金组织就是国际金融体系的一部分，也并未出现体系民主化的趋势。当前的国际金融体系看得是谁拥有霸权，谁拥有权力，谁拥有影响力。这意味着一个渴望发展的小国，无法左右国际金融体系机构的决策，或者说他们做出的决定并不符合所有国家的最佳利益，不管这些国家经济是大是小。因此，确实存在滥用权力的现象，单边决定是否制裁、是否冻结他人的资产等行为，就是在破坏金融体系的合法性，这就是为什么非洲也特别呼吁国际金融体系的民主化。
位于上海浦东新区世博园区的金砖国家新开发银行总部大楼。图源：新华社Xu Qinduo: Well, if you look at the BRICS Bank, or the New Development Bank, NDB, their goal is to increase local currency lending from about 22% to 30% by 2026. Is that the right direction? Basically to increase the use of…许钦铎：金砖银行，也就是新开发银行（NDB），他们的目标是到2026年将本币贷款从22%左右增加到30%。这个发展方向对吗？就是为了增加……Busani: That's great. That is why the bank exists. Because there are realities in these countries, the reality of their own currency, their performance in relation to other currencies in the bigger trading system. The BRICS Bank is a very interesting and exciting institution that has been established because as I said earlier on, the idea is how you democratize the international financial system, and having a BRICS Bank as we have now, is already extending credit and so on, you are in fact taking a major step toward democratizing. What it means is a country can now choose, that I'm going to be building this infrastructure, I can either build it using a credit from the IMF or some other Euro-American based institutions, or I can go into the BRICS Bank whose orientation is purely developmental, and that's an exciting thing about the bank. Interacting with the President on Monday was very interesting, because those are the type of things that are priorities for her and the team that she leads.布萨尼：这是好事，这就是金砖银行存在的原因。因为这些国家有各自的现实情况，各自货币表现的情况，与国际贸易体系中其他货币的关系也是不同的。新开发银行是非常有趣和令人兴奋的机构，正如我之前所说，关键在于如何使国际金融体系民主化，而我们如今的金砖国家新开发银行已经在扩大信贷等方面发挥了作用，实际上已经向民主化迈出了重要一步，这意味着各国现在建设基础设施时有选择，要么从国际货币基金组织或其他欧美机构借款，要么找纯粹以发展为导向的金砖银行，这是金砖银行令人感到兴奋的地方；另外，我5月20日与罗塞夫行长的互动非常有趣，这些都是她和她领导的团队优先考虑的事情。【编者注：专访时间为5月22日。在5月20日（周一）北京对话举办的“金砖国家货币和金融体系改革”研讨会上，布萨尼和罗塞夫行长进行了交谈】
罗塞夫行长（右一）、布萨尼（右二）和与会专家在“金砖国家货币和金融体系改革”研讨会中
Xu Qinduo: Development oriented. Do you think there's any awareness on the side of Washington, people are not happy with our hegemony or monopoly of the US dollar or abuse of the privilege, having people's dependence on the US dollar. And then what if they readjust, okay let's have less unilateral sanctions, so people can better use US dollars. Do you think there are still incentives for developing countries to pursue a different path?许钦铎：以发展为导向。您认为华盛顿方面有没有意识到人们不喜欢美国的霸权和垄断，也不喜欢他们滥用各国对美元的依赖？如果他们重新作出调整，减少单边制裁，从而使人们可以更好地使用美元，又会发生什么？您认为发展中国家是否仍有动力去探索不同的道路？Busani: It's very difficult to tell what's going on in the US and so on, there could be different reasons why things are happening the way they are doing. It might as well be that the kind of intellectual class, thinking class that supported the growth and the sustainability of the American system. Maybe that thinking class is gone. There's a lot of ridiculousness that is going on there. The type of discussions that you see happening sometimes in Congress, like these people are elected to discuss this type of stuff when the world is facing much bigger issues. When you follow some of the key economic thinkers, of course, there are some who are studying what's happening to the currencies and so on, but in some instances, you feel like that class that was thinking, that was solutioning, that was imagining, even if it was in pursuit of strengthening the empire, it's almost like that class has given up. And what you have now in many conversations, if you read and hear what they say, is using a very hard form of statecraft, hegemonic statecraft, it's either a military operation or that the currency will be used, or control of information technology and other things. And then today, who will imagine that a country that has been the champion of the global free market system and trade, that they can impose sanctions at 100%. What we have learned in economics is that you can introduce some type of tariffs, and you can raise progressively if you think it is not working; I've never had of a 100% tariff in a manner in which it is happening. So I do think that there is a challenge with the intellectual and the thinking class in in the US and how they are providing advice and shaping opinions that eventually translate into public policy there.布萨尼：说实话，很难说美国究竟怎么想的。他们正在做的事情可能出于各种原因；或许过去推动美国增长和可持续发展的知识分子阶层早已不存在了。看到国会讨论的议题后有时会想，世界面临更重大的问题，但选上去的人竟然讨论这类如此荒谬的话题。跟踪一些重要的经济思想家的观点时，当然有一些人在研究货币问题等等，但有时你会感觉，过去有思考、有解决问题和发挥想象力的阶层，哪怕这些是为了巩固美帝国，但现在他们似乎已放弃努力了。在当今的很多对话中，他们讨论的都是如何使用非常强硬的霸权治国方式，要么是军事行动，要么是操纵货币、要么是控制信息技术等等。我的意思是，谁能想到，一个一直自我标榜为全球自由市场体系和贸易捍卫者的国家，可以实施增加百分百关税的制裁。经济学告诉我们，可以引入某种类型的关税，如果认为它没有起作用的话，可以逐步增加关税，但我没听说过百分之百关税的先例。因此，我认为美国的知识分子和思想阶层在如何提供建议、塑造观点、并将其转化为公共政策方面的确面临挑战。
图源：视觉中国
Xu Qinduo: That's what I'm going to ask. Previously we say US officials governments used to talk basically about lecturing the world about free trade, about globalization, but now they are withdrawing from globalization. They turn to protectionism. What's the relationship between free trade and the use of dollar? And now US is turning inward sort of, and do you foresee a probably less use of US dollar, globally?许钦铎：这就是我要问的问题。美国官员和政府过去基本上是在向全世界灌输自由贸易和全球化，但现在他们正在去全球化，转向保护主义。自由贸易和美元使用之间的关系是什么？如今，美国正在向内转，你认为美元在全球的使用可能会减少吗?Busani: I think under the circumstances, if we read the pattern, I think this is where the shift is moving. Because countries need to trade, as they need to trade, they need to find alternatives, so what would be those alternatives? And if the alternative for two countries to trade and do business is to use a different currency, I think that's what the countries will do. I don't think countries will just immediately subject themselves to having assets frozen or higher tariffs and so on, and not react to it, because those things have an impact on their economy, so I think this is how in the end this will pan out.布萨尼：现今，如果我们解读规律的话，我认为这就是未来趋势的方向，因为各国需要贸易，那么就需要找到（美元的）替代方案，这些替代方案是什么呢？如果两个国家进行商贸的替代方案是使用不同货币，我认为这就是各国会做的事情。我不认为各国会立即受制于资产冻结或更高的关税等等，而不对此作出反应，因为这些事情会对他们的经济产生影响，这就是我所认为的最终结果。Xu Qinduo: Thank you, Busani.视频来源：https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=97V98lo5fkE起来，不愿做“美元奴隶”的人们
美元霸权进入倒计时？
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