英国新政府该如何与中国打交道？

Club提要：英国工党执政，将对华采取什么样的政策？7月24日，北京对话韩桦、李泽西，在香港南华早报发表题为"Britain can deliver on its domestic goals by working with China"（《英国新政府可以通过与中国合作，实现其国内发展目标》）的评论，向斯塔默政府建言。

作者认为，工党在选举期间强调国内民生发展议题，但无论是基建、医疗、还是应对气候变化，都需要与中国合作。英国应借此换届机会，重拾其外交优良传统。加强与中国合作符合工党倡导的“进步现实主义”理念，有利其实现国内发展目标。

（图源：《南华早报》截图）

本月初，英国工党领袖斯塔默爵士（Sir Keir Starmer）因提出“近水楼台”式（Yes in My Backyard）的发展计划，获得了选举的历史性胜利。该计划（主要内容包括民生、基建等）对中国人来说很耳熟，但蓝图里似乎少了一块：前首相特雷莎·梅提出的“全球英国”外交政策及其对中国的影响。

工党竞选重点关注国内民生问题，如高昂的能源价格、岌岌可危的国民健康服务（NHS）、移民政策和基础设施建设，这完全可以理解。与此同时，“全球英国”似乎已被淡忘。然而，内政和外交总是相互交织的。在英国强调发展与中国的多层面关系之际，尤为重要。

眼下，英国正努力提高制造业产能，而中国面临国内外压力正在调整产能。考虑到中国在构建以发展为导向的国家机制方面的经验，中英两国经济似乎有着历史性的互补机遇。

英国外交大臣拉米（David Lammy）曾表示，气候变化、健康和人工智能（AI）是中英应该合作的领域。可再生能源是中国工业的关键发展领域。英国的任何2050年实现净零排放的目标，都需要通过与中国的合作实现。为达到这一目标，中国企业应该在向英国出售太阳能电池板之上，在英国建立生产工厂。

英国外交大臣拉米（图源：互联网）

在医疗保健领域，中英两国的合作不受英政府更替影响，持续发展；迄今为止，两国的合作主要集中在学术机构之间的科研合作。随着中国面临人口老龄化的挑战，以及英国寻求改善国民医疗保健系统，医疗保健服务可能会成为一个需要加强合作的领域。

与气候变化一样，面对人工智能相关的风险，解决之道必须是全球性的。中国去年参加人工智能安全峰会，可能让很多人感到意外，但时任英国首相苏纳克（Rishi Sunak）对此表示了欢迎，认为这是采取全球行动应对人工智能所必需的。其他西方国家也表达了对人工智能安全风险的担忧。与此同时，中国希望各方持续和规范地进行数据共享。随着各方不断完善自己的立场，人工智能可能是为数不多的各国都能达成妥协方案的领域之一。

在这些领域以及基建等其他方面，斯塔默当然可以考虑以安全或其他理由把中国排除在外。但如果没有中国，基建实施成本可能会比原来更加昂贵，从而使斯塔默的内政议程更加难以实现。

斯塔默的目标之一是建设一个更具竞争力的英国，并与中国竞争。从短期和长期影响来看，中国政府或应该表态支持这一目标。在过去十余年间，英国经济事实上没有净增长；这意味着如果中国扩大与英国的经济交往，就必然有其他方利益受损。而如果英国要重新回到持续增长的轨道上，那么即使英国领导人将英国的贸易网络多元化，英国与中国的双边贸易额也可能相应增加。这也许就是中国外交强调的“合作共赢”的含义。

中国认识到，英国作为北约组织的核心成员，在安全问题上将与美国保持一致。同时，英国也必须认识到，南海不应成为英国国防安全的优先事项。英国当然不是一个太平洋国家，其途径南海的贸易量仅占10%。如果英国全球贸易网络持续多元化，可能就更加不会倾向于将中国视为安全挑战。这可以成为中国政府支持英国贸易多元化目标的动力之一。

过去几年的经验表明，中国与西方之间任何富有成效的接触都在尽力避免“嘴炮”，同时超越以象征意义为主的姿态。例如，中国不会强推英国采用华为的5G网络。这对双边关系没有多少实际好处，反而会增加外交分析人士和决策者的疑虑和关注，而最终可能损害中英关系。

2020年7月14日，时任英国文化大臣奥利弗·道登向议会公布关于华为的最终决定

中国明晰英国在人权问题和网络安全上的立场，因为这些很有可能继续作为双边讨论的话题，但双方会在私下场合讨论这些话题。

拉米所倡导的“进步现实主义”意味着英国将推动其认为正确的议题，并将以结果为导向。斯塔默在胜选演讲中表示，他的政府将摆脱英国国内政治“喧闹表演”的时代；这也应适用于英国的外交政策。大声抨击中国不会帮助英国实现任何“非政治”目标，反而可能导致中国对英态度更坚定。历史证明，持续、有原则的对华接触才是富有成效的。

英国曾经是外交强国。国际对话的许多惯例，如“查塔姆宫守则”，都是在这里诞生的。在过去这个世纪里，随着其全球影响力和利益的下降，英国的这一“强外交”传统日渐衰落。目前，只有英国的智库和研究机构还在努力延续这一传统。

一个“全球英国”不能仅靠经济和军事力量来支撑，这些也都不再是英国的强项。长期以来，英国最大的优势在于其软实力以及与世界各国的历史联系。英国外交部应该支持智库和学术机构的努力，但也应该自己重登舞台，继承卡斯尔雷勋爵、乔治·坎宁和帕默斯顿勋爵等前外交大臣的衣钵，再次证明英国在全球舞台上可以发挥宝贵而独立的作用。

Britain can deliver on its domestic goals by working with China

In a historic election victory, Sir Keir Starmer successfully advocated for an YIMBY (Yes in My Backyard) agenda of growth and development for Britain. It all sounds quite familiar to Chinese ears, except for one missing piece of the puzzle: the country’s foreign policy approach of “Global Britain”, established by former prime minister Theresa May, and its implications for China.

The Labour Party’s campaign understandably focused on domestic issues, such as high energy prices, the country’s flailing National Health Service (NHS), immigration and infrastructure. Meanwhile, “Global Britain” appears to have fallen by the wayside. However, domestic politics and international diplomacy are always intertwined. This is of particular significance for Britain’s multifaceted relationship with China.

Right now, as Britain seeks to ramp up manufacturing capacity, China is under domestic and international pressure to wind down. When factoring in China’s experience in building a development-oriented state, it appears that Britain and China are at a point of historic economic complementarity.

British foreign secretary David Lammy has identified climate change, health and artificial intelligence (AI) as areas where China and the UK should work together. Renewable energy is a key area of China’s industrial strength. Any path to net zero by 2050 likely means working with China. To make this work, Chinese firms shouldn’t just sell solar panels to the UK, but also build production plants in Britain.

When it comes to healthcare, the level of cooperation between China and the UK has been consistent across various administrations. So far, much of the cooperation is focused on research between academic institutions. However, as China faces the challenges of its ageing population and the UK seeks to improve the NHS, healthcare provision may be an area for increased cooperation.

Like climate change, the risks associated with AI can only be solved on the global level. China’s involvement in the AI Safety Summit last year might have surprised many, but was welcomed by then British prime minister Rishi Sunak as necessary for global action on AI. Other Western countries have expressed concern about the safety risks of AI. Meanwhile, China would like to see continued and regulated data sharing. As everyone refines their position, AI may be one of the few areas where a global compromise can be reached.

In these and other areas, such as infrastructure, Starmer could always consider cutting China out of the picture, for security reasons or otherwise. But without China, implementation costs might be more expensive than they otherwise would have been, making Starmer’s agenda all the more difficult to achieve.

Part of Starmer’s goal is building a Britain that is more competitive, including against China. Beijing should support this push for its short- and long-term implications. Over the past decade, Britain has seen effectively zero net growth; this means that, should China wish to grow its economic engagement with the UK, someone else would need to lose out.

Should Britain return to a path of consistent growth, its bilateral trade volume with China could increase, even as UK leaders diversify the country’s trade network. This is probably what Chinese diplomats mean when they emphasise “win-win cooperation”.

China should recognise that Britain, as a core member of the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation, is aligned with the United States on security matters. Meanwhile, the UK must recognise that the South China Sea should not be a British defence priority. The UK is certainly not a Pacific nation as barely more than 10 per cent of its trade passes through the South China Sea. If the UK diversifies its global trade network, it might be less inclined to see China as a security challenge. This could be an incentive for Beijing to support Britain’s trade goals.

The past few years have shown that any fruitful engagement between China and the West requires an absence of bombastic rhetoric, as well as going beyond symbolic gestures. China, for example, should not make a renewed push for the UK to adopt Huawei’s 5G network. It wouldn’t do any practical good for bilateral relations, but instead lead to increased suspicion from foreign policy analysts and decision-makers. This would ultimately harm ties between China and the UK.

While Britain’s cybersecurity concerns and stance on human rights are quite clear to China, and will probably continue to be a topic of bilateral discussions, it would be better done in private settings.

“Progressive realism”, as advocated by Lammy, means that Britain will push for what it believes is right, but in a results-oriented way. In his victory speech, Starmer said his government will turn away from the era of domestic British politics as “noisy performance”. This should apply to Britain’s foreign policy too. Loud China-bashing won’t achieve any non-political goals, and will probably only lead to China digging in. Consistent and principled engagement with China has a long and proven history of success.

Britain once was a diplomatic powerhouse. Many practices in international dialogue, such as the Chatham House rule, were conceived here. Over the last century, the UK has slowly seen this tradition somewhat wither, as declining global influence and interests takes their toll. So far, British think tanks and research institutions are keeping the flame alive.

A global Britain cannot just be backed by economic and military weight, which aren’t the UK’s strengths anyway. Its greatest strength has long been its soft power and historical ties with countries around the world. The British foreign ministry should support the efforts of think tanks and academic institutions, but also step into the arena itself, carrying the torch from former foreign secretaries Lord Castlereagh, George Canning and Lord Palmerston, and show once more that Britain has a valuable, independent role to play on the global stage.

原文链接：https://www.scmp.com/opinion/world-opinion/article/3271692/britain-can-deliver-its-domestic-goals-working-china