学术前沿丨《JEEM》2020年涉及中国文章汇总_下

启研学社由知名学者担任学术顾问，高校师生与企研数据科学团队联合组建，以大数据资源及相关技术助力中国学术与智库研究为宗旨的研究组织。团队当前的主要目标是挖掘经济社会大数据资源在学术和智库领域的应用价值，开展学术大数据治理研究，以及探索大数据分析技术融入中国经济社会研究的可行进路。

在昨天的文章中，我们为大家带来了《JEEM》2020年涉及中国的12篇文章中的前5篇文章的摘要翻译，今天我们将余下的7篇文章的摘要翻译推送给大家，希望能为有需要的学者提供参考。

前情回顾：学术前沿丨《JEEM》2020年涉及中国文章汇总_上（附全年总目录）

小编题外话：今天的头条给大家免费分享了中国农业年鉴（1981-2018）的数据资源喔！有需要的读者朋友快快点进我们的主页查看领取~

Volume 103 

September 2020

Do preferences to reduce health risks related to air pollution depend on illness type? Evidence from a choice experiment in Beijing, China

降低空气污染相关健康风险的偏好是否取决于疾病类型？来自中国北京的一项基于选择实验法的证据

Yana Jinᵃ ᵇ, Henrik Anderssonᶜ, Shiqiu Zhangᵈ

ᵃ William & Mary, 427 Scotland Street, 23185, Williamsburg, VA, USA

ᵇ Beijer Institute of Ecological Economics, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, Box 50005, SE-104 05, Stockholm, Sweden

ᶜ Toulouse School of Economics, University of Toulouse Capitole, 31015 Toulouse Cedex 6, France

ᵈ College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, Peking University, 100871, Beijing, China

Abstract:This study elicits preferences for clean air in a fast-developing context with increasing regulatory efforts and widespread adoption of self-protection measures against air pollution. We examine whether willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce mortality and morbidity risk depends on the type of illness caused by the pollution. Three major illnesses attributable to air pollution are examined in a choice experiment in Beijing, China. We find robust evidence, testing for both observed and unobserved preference heterogeneity, that WTP does not vary by illness type, and hence, that WTP for policy purposes should not be differentiated based on illness type. We also find that income, education, gender and other factors related with risk vulnerability well predict self-protection, and that respondents who engage more in self-protection have stronger preferences for public interventions. Our results suggest a value of a statistical life (VSL) and value of a statistical illness (VSI) of RMB 5.54 million (USD 1.58 million) and RMB 0.82 million (USD 0.23 million), which are higher than earlier estimates in China. This imply that for societies with strong economic growth and significant pollution, VSL and VSI are likely to increase rapidly, further strengthening the role of policies on pollution control and public health.

Keywords: Air pollution; Averting behavior; Benefit-cost analysis; Choice experiments; Value of a statistical life; Willingness to pay

摘要：本研究引出了，在监管力度加大和空气污染防护的自我保护措施广泛采用的背景下，人们对清洁空气的偏好。我们研究了为降低死亡率和发病风险的支付意愿（WTP）是否取决于污染引发的疾病类型。本研究在中国北京进行的一项选择实验中考察了三种归因于空气污染的主要疾病。我们发现了强有力的证据，测试了观察到的和未观察到的偏好异质性，WTP不因疾病类型而变化，因此，出于政策目的的WTP不应该基于疾病类型而有所不同。我们还发现，收入、教育、性别和其他与风险脆弱性相关的因素能够很好地预测自我保护，而且参与自我保护较多的受访者更偏好于公共干预。我们的结果表明，统计生命价值（VSL）和统计疾病价值（VSI）分别为554万元人民币（158万美元）和82万元人民币（23万美元），这高于中国早期的估计。这意味着对于经济增长强劲、污染严重的社会来说，VSL和VSI可能会迅速增加，进一步强调了污染控制和公共卫生的政策作用。

关键词：空气污染；规避行为；成本收益分析；选择实验；统计生命价值；支付意愿

The impact of climate conditions on economic production. Evidence from a global

气候条件对经济生产的影响：来自全球的证据

Matthias Kalkuhlᵃ ᵇ, Leonie Wenzᵃ ᶜ ᵈ

ᵃ Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829, Berlin, Germany

ᵇ University of Potsdam, Faculty of Economic and Social Sciences, Germany

ᶜ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of California, Berkeley, USA

ᵈ Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany

Abstract:We present a novel data set of subnational economic output, Gross Regional Product (GRP), for more than 1500 regions in 77 countries that allows us to empirically estimate historic climate impacts at different time scales. Employing annual panel models, long-difference regressions and cross-sectional regressions, we identify effects on productivity levels and productivity growth. We do not find evidence for permanent growth rate impacts but we find robust evidence that temperature affects productivity levels considerably. An increase in global mean surface temperature by about 3.5°C until the end of the century would reduce global output by 7–14% in 2100, with even higher damages in tropical and poor regions. Updating the DICE damage function with our estimates suggests that the social cost of carbon from temperature-induced productivity losses is on the order of 73–142$/tCO2 in 2020, rising to 92–181$/tCO2 in 2030. These numbers exclude non-market damages and damages from extreme weather events or sea-level rise.

Keywords: Climate change; Climate damages; Climate impacts; Growth regression; Global warming; Panel regression; Cross-sectional regression; Damage function; Social costs of carbon

摘要：我们为77个国家的1500多个地区提供了一个新的分国别（subnational ）经济产出数据集，即地区生产总值(GRP)，使我们能够在不同的时间尺度上对历史气候的影响进行实证评估。利用年度面板模型、长差分模型（long-difference regressions ）和横截面回归，我们确定了对生产率水平和生产率增长的影响。我们没有找到永久增长率影响的证据，但我们找到了有力的证据，表明温度对生产率水平有相当大的影响。到本世纪末，全球地表平均温度上升3.5摄氏度，到2100年，全球产出将减少7-14%，热带和贫困地区的损失甚至会更高。用我们的估算更新DICE损害函数表明，2020年由温度导致的生产力损失造成的社会碳成本约为73-142美元/吨，到2030年上升至92-181美元/吨。这些数字不包括非市场损失和极端天气事件或海平面上升造成的损失。

关键词：气候变化；气候损害；气候影响；增长回归；全球变暖；面板回归；横截面回归；损失函数；社会碳成本

Volume 102 

July 2020

Does rainfall matter for economic growth? Evidence from global sub-national data (1990–2014)

降雨对经济增长是否重要？来自全球各个国家的数据证据(1990-2014年)

R.Damania, S.Desbureaux, E.Zaveri

The World Bank, 1818 H Street, Washington, DC, 20045, USA

Abstract: This paper addresses a seldom recognized empirical puzzle. Much micro-econometric evidence suggests that precipitation has wide ranging impacts on vital economic indicators such as agricultural yields, human capital and even conflict. And yet paradoxically most macro-econometric evidence (especially in the climate economics literature) finds that precipitation has no robust and significant impact on various measures of aggregate economic output. Here, we argue that spatial aggregation of weather at the country level explains this result. We use annual sub-national GDP data to show a concave relationship between precipitation and local GDP growth between 1990 and 2014. We demonstrate that when data are aggregated at larger spatial scales, the significance of the impact decreases and eventually it vanishes. The impact of precipitation on aggregate economic activity is predominantly felt in developing countries and is insignificant in developed countries. Agriculture is found to be a key pathway. Our results have substantial consequences for measuring the economic impact of climate change.

Keywords:Economic growth; Rainfall

摘要：本文解决了一个很少被认识到的经验难题。许多微观计量经济学证据表明，降水对农业产量、人力资本甚至战争冲突等重要经济指标有广泛的影响。然而，自相矛盾的是，大多数宏观计量经济学证据(特别是在气候经济学文献中)发现，降水对经济总产出的各种衡量指标没有强劲和显著的影响。在这里，我们以国家层面的天气空间聚集解释了这一结果。我们利用1990-2014年不同国家的GDP数据来表示降水与地区GDP增长之间的凹形关系。我们证明，当数据在更大的空间尺度上聚集时，影响的显著性降低并最终消失。降水对总经济活动的影响主要是在发展中国家较为明显，而在发达国家则不明显。农业被认为是关键所在。我们的研究结果对衡量气候变化的经济影响具有重大意义。

关键词：经济增长；降雨

Volume 101 

May 2020

Mitigating the air pollution effect? The remarkable decline in the pollution-mortality relationship in Hong Kong

缓解空气污染效应？香港污染与死亡关系的显著下降

Chun Wai Cheung, Guojun He, Yuhang Pan

Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, Hong Kong

Abstract: Using transboundary pollution from  China as an instrument, we show that air pollution leads to higher cardio-respiratory mortality in Hong Kong. However, the air pollution effect has dramatically decreased over the past two decades: before 2003, a 10-unit increase in the Air Pollution Index could lead to a 3.1% increase in monthly cardio-respiratory mortality, but this effect has declined to 0.5% using recent data and is no longer statistically significant. Exploratory analyses suggest that a well-functioning medical system and immediate access to emergency services can help mitigate the contemporaneous effects of pollution on mortality.

Keywords: Air pollution; Health; Transboundary pollution; Healthcare; Emergency service

摘要：我们以中国跨境污染为工具，结果显示，空气污染导致香港地区心脏和呼吸系统的死亡率较高。然而，在过去的二十年里，空气污染效应出现了显著下降：在2003年之前，每增长10个单位的空气污染指数可能导致心肺死亡率每月增长3.1%。但通过对近期数据的分析，我们发现这种影响已经下降到了0.5%，且不再显著。探索性分析表明，一个运行良好的医疗系统和紧急服务的即时获取，可以帮助减轻污染对死亡率的同期影响。

关键词：空气污染，健康，跨界污染，医疗保健，紧急救助

Brain freeze: outdoor cold and indoor cognitive performance

大脑短路：室外寒冷与室内认知表现的关系

Nikolai Cookᵃ, Anthony Heyesᵇ

ᵃ University of Ottawa, Canada

ᵇ University of Ottawa, Canada & University of Sussex, United Kingdom

Abstract:We present first evidence that outdoor cold temperatures negatively impact indoor cognitive performance. We use a within-subject design and a large-scale dataset of adults in an incentivized setting. The performance decrement is large despite the subjects working in a fully climate-controlled environment. Using secondary data, we find evidence of partial adaptation at the organizational, individual and biological levels. The results are interpreted in the context of climate models that observe and predict an increase in the frequency of very cold days in some locations (e.g. Chicago) and a decrease in others (e.g. Beijing).

Keywords:Climate change; Cold temperature; Cognitive productivity; Climate resilience; Adaptation

摘要：我们提出的第一个证据表明，室外寒冷的温度对室内认知表现有负面影响。我们采用了一个受测者内设计（within-subject design）和在激励设置下的一个大规模成人数据集。尽管受试者可以在完全受气候控制的环境下工作，但性能下降幅度很大。利用二手数据，我们发现部分在组织，个人和生物水平的适应性证据。这些结果是在气候模型的背景下进行解释的，该模型观察并预测在某些地区(如芝加哥)极冷天气的频率会增加，而在其他地区(如北京)极冷天气的频率会减少。

关键词：气候变化；低温；认知效率；气候适应能力；适应

Water runoff and economic activity: The impact of water supply shocks on growth

水径流与经济活动：供水量对经济增长的影响

Jason Russ

Water Global Practice, The World Bank, USA

Abstract: This paper attempts to fill a gap in a growing literature examining the global economic implications of weather shocks. Past research has found significant, robust impacts of hotter temperatures on reducing economic growth. While rainfall is important for agriculture, impacts on aggregate economic activity remain elusive. In this paper, I argue that rainfall is a poor indicator of water availability, particularly in urban contexts. Instead, I find that changes in water runoff significantly impact economic growth. Results show that years in which runoff is significantly lower than average, local economic activity growth is depressed. This impact is strongest in middle-income regions, where runoff 1 or 2 standard deviation below normal levels reduces GDP growth by 0.4–0.6% and 1.3–2.5%. I examine two mechanisms, agricultural production and hydropower dependence. Globally, agricultural production is depressed by below average runoff shocks, although the resulting impact on GDP is likely low. Regions which are more urban and rely more on hydropower production in their energy mix are significantly more sensitive to these runoff shocks. With climate change expected to increase the variability of water runoff, these shocks are expected to become more frequent in the future and in some regions may significantly hamper growth.

Keywords: Water supply; Economic growth; Hydropower; Night-time lights

摘要：本文试图填补越来越多研究气候对全球经济影响的文献中的空白。过去的研究发现，气温升高对经济增长的影响显著而强劲。虽然降雨对农业很重要，但对总体经济活动的影响仍然难以捉摸。在这篇论文中，我认为降雨量不是衡量水资源可得性的好指标，特别是在城市环境中。相反，我发现径流的变化显著影响经济增长。结果表明，径流量显著低于平均水平的年份，会抑制地方经济活动的增长。这种影响在中等收入地区最为强烈，在这些地区，径流低于正常水平的1或2个标准差，会导致GDP增长减少0.4-0.6%和1.3-2.5%。我研究了两种机制，农业生产和对水力发电的依赖性。在全球范围内，低于平均水平的径流抑制了农业生产，尽管其对GDP的影响可能很低。城市化程度较高、能源结构更依赖水利发电的地区对径流冲击的敏感性要高得多。由于气候变化将增加径流的变化，这些冲击预计将在未来变得更加频繁，在一些地区可能会严重阻碍经济增长。

关键词：水供给；经济增长；水力发电；夜晚灯光

Volume 99 

January 2020

The effect of vehicle ownership restrictions on travel behavior: Evidence from the Beijing license plate lottery

车辆所有权限制对外出行为的影响：来自北京车牌摇号的证据

Jun Yangᵃ ᵇ Antung A.Liuᶜ ᵈ, Ping Qinᵉ, Joshua Linnᶠ

ᵃ Beijing Transport Institute, China

ᵇ Beijing Best Transport Tech Co. Ltd, China

ᶜ Indiana University School of Public and Environmental Affairs, Bloomington, IN, USA

ᵈ The Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business, Beijing, China

ᵉ School of Economics, Renmin University of China, China

ᶠ Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics at the University of Maryland and Resources for the Future, United States

Abstract：To combat traffic congestion and air pollution, many cities restrict vehicle ownership, but little is known about how these policies actually affect vehicle ownership, use, or travel time. Leveraging the randomization created by Beijing's vehicle license plate lottery, we estimate the effects of the policy on travel behavior. We find that the policy reduces the total stock of cars in Beijing by 14%. It also causes large reductions in vehicle distance traveled, morning rush hour driving, and evening rush hour driving.

摘要：为了解决交通拥堵和空气污染问题，许多城市限制机动车保有量，但人们对这些政策实际上如何影响机动车保有量、使用和出行时间知之甚少。借助北京市车牌摇号产生的随机性，我们估计了该政策对出行行为的影响。我们发现，该政策使北京的汽车总量减少了14%。它还导致车辆在早高峰时段和晚高峰时段的行驶距离的大幅减少。

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