《AUSTRALIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL AND RESOURCE ECONOMICS》（AJARE），最新影响因子为1.386，刊载方向为管理科学、农业经济与政策。
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学术前沿 | AJARE：诅咒或祝福：自然资源依赖如何影响中国城市经济发展？
本文转载自公众号中国草业发展战略研究中心
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摘要
基于“资源诅咒”理论，本研究使用2003-2016年中国256个地级市的面板数据来检验自然资源依赖与经济发展之间的关系和机制。面板模型和工具变量回归结果表明，自然资源总体上促进了经济发展，但是对于109个资源型城市而言，自然资源对经济发展的影响似乎截然不同。面板门槛模型显示，在资源型城市中，（i）经济繁荣期间资源对经济发展具有“祝福效应”（GDP增长率大于12.1％）；（ii）当GDP增长率在5％至12.1％之间时，这种关系在统计上不显著；（iii）当GDP增长率低于5％时，自然资源会对经济发展产生“诅咒效应”。此外，中介效应模型的结果表明，产业多元化对资源依赖与经济发展之间关系的中介效应抑制了自然资源对经济的促进。资源依赖产业的过度集中会对资源型城市的非资源依赖产业产生挤出效应，从而降低了产业多元化水平，不利于经济发展。关键词
中介效应；自然资源依赖；资源诅咒；门槛Abstract
Based on the ‘resource curse’ theory, this study uses panel data for 256 prefecture‐level cities in China from 2003 to 2016 to test the relationship and mechanism between natural resource dependence and economic development. The panel model and instrumental variable regression results show that natural resources generally promote economic development, but for 109 resource‐based cities, the influence of natural resources on economic development seems quite different. The panel threshold model shows that in the resource‐based cities, (i) resources have a ‘blessing effect’ on economic development during economic prosperity (GDP growth rate is greater than 12.1 per cent); (ii) the relationship is not statistically significant when the GDP growth rate is between 5 per cent and 12.1 per cent; and (iii) when the GDP growth rate is lower than 5 per cent, natural resources have a ‘curse effect’ on economic development. Furthermore, the results of the mediation effect model show that the mediation effect of industrial diversification on the relationship between resource dependence and economic development suppresses the promotion of natural resource on economy. An excessive concentration of resource industries has a crowding‐out effect on non‐resource industries in resource‐based cities, which reduces the level of industrial diversification and is not conducive to economic development.Keywords
mediation effect, natural resource dependence, resource curse, thresholdEND
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