干货｜2017年第一季度《人民币国际化动态与展望》（中英文报告全文）
编者按
为忠实记录人民币国际化历程，客观反映这一过程中所面临的问题与挑战，中国人民大学国际货币研究所从2012年开始每年定期发布《人民币国际化报告》，首创人民币国际化指数（RII），用来概括和反映人民币实际行使国际货币职能的程度。该指数可为管理层提供简明直观的决策依据，也是学术界研究相关问题的实用量化指标。在此基础上，中国人民大学国际货币研究所将发布季度RII指数，同期发布中英文版本《人民币国际化动态与展望》报告。
中文原文如下
聚焦人民币国际化
2016年人民币国际化进程由高歌猛进迈入市场调整期，RII指数小幅震荡。国内供给侧结构性改革阵痛与经济下行风险使市场担忧情绪强化，新汇率形成机制下人民币汇率弹性加大，市场需要一段时间调整适应。美国大选、英国脱欧等黑天鹅事件频发，欧洲难民危机持续发酵，国际社会多重不确定因素叠加，强化了美元的避险功能。2017年第一季度，美国特朗普总统实施新政，国际经济金融环境逐渐明朗，国内经济继续保持稳定增长提振了市场信心，人民币加入SDR红利开始显现，预计一季度RII指数下降幅度收窄，达到3.04，与去年同期相比增长14.1%。未来随着贸易、直投双轮驱动功能的增强，特别是人民币金融交易功能的强化，人民币有望保持其国际货币地位。预计到2017年底，RII将升3.08。
图1 人民币国际化指数RII
中国继续成为全球经济增长的重要推动力。在国内外形势复杂多变的情况下，中国通过增加消费， 2016年GDP全年实现6.7%的增长，IMF也上调了中国2017年GDP预期增长率。2017年第一季度中国进出口贸易出现两位数增长，供给侧结构性改革进一步深化，发展的新动力逐渐壮大，为人民币国际化奠定了坚实的经济基础。
对外直接投资创新高，一带一路沿线国家成为投资热点。以基础设施联通和国际产能合作为重点，近三年中国对“一带一路”沿线国家的投资已超500亿美元，2017年对外投资继续高歌猛进。对外直接投资显著提升了双边贸易关系，带动了中资金融机构跨境经营并扩大人民币业务。工程总承包（EPC）为人民币国际化提供了新的推手。
人民币国际影响力提升。人民币首次在IMF公布的“官方外汇储备货币构成”中单独列出，表明人民币加入SDR后的制度红利开始显现，人民币资产得到越来越多国家的官方认可，人民币的国际使用范围从私人部门走向官方部门，与美元、欧元等货币一样全方位发挥国际货币职能。
人民币汇率市场预期平稳，短期资本外流减少。在“收盘汇率+一篮子货币变化”的汇率形成机制下，2017年人民币对一篮子货币汇率保持基本稳定，对美元汇率双向浮动弹性增强。人民币贬值预期进一步收敛，短期资本流出规模下降，官方外汇储备继续保持在3万亿美元以上。同时，在岸和离岸外汇市场的汇差、利差收窄，有利于挤出投机泡沫，确保金融机构的跨境人民币业务回归服务实体经济的应有之义。
债券市场进一步开放，人民币资产的国际吸引力提高。为了提供国际安全资产，中国不仅取消了诸多资本市场的投资限制，还对境外机构投资者开放了外汇、利率、信用衍生品市场，方便其进行风险对冲管理。定价、清算机制的国际接轨，较高的收益率，吸引了国际主要机构投资者配置人民币债券，而人民币小幅贬值和利率下降导致熊猫债发行快速增长，彭博和汇丰相继推出包含中国债券的指数。中国债券市场是推动人民币国际化的新亮点。
未来挑战
对外投资、购汇非理性扩张。规范和严格执行资本管理措施，以及人民币贬值预期，促使一些居民恐慌性换汇，化整为零甚至通过地下钱庄等违规、不法手段换取外汇，在不完全了解国外法律、市场风险情况下过度投资房地产，购买境外企业或金融资产，导致对外投资过快增长、资本过快流出，对人民币汇率稳定造成较大压力。
债券市场国际竞争力有待提高。债券市场深度、广度不足，产品不够丰富，发债主体结构不尽合理，作为市场定价基准的收益率曲线尚不能满足投资者的需要，规避利率汇率风险的衍生品市场不发达。缺乏有足够公信力的评级机构，法律税收制度及市场基础设施有待完善。
国际政策协调难度增加，面临贸易战风险。主要发达国家经济复苏步调不一致，宏观经济政策组合松紧方向出现明显分化。美元进入加息期，欧元、日元维持负利率，英国开启脱欧进程，英镑加息预期上升。中国需要应对不同的货币政策溢出效应。特朗普新政体现保守主义倾向，欧盟发起对华贸易反倾销、反补贴调查，扩大人民币使用面临新的挑战。
政策建议
完善制度,实现资本流动的精细化和精准化管理。建立对外投资的“白名单”、“黑名单”制度，做到“有管有放”，对于真实合规的对外投资、换汇活动予以支持，鼓励企业参与“一带一路”建设和国际产能合作。运用大数据技术，加强资本流动监测与合规性监管，限制投机性资本流动。
加速债券市场基础设施建设，努力使人民币债券成为有竞争力的国际安全资产。促进债券市场多元化，加强与境外债券市场的合作，扩大双向开放力度。推动资产证券化，适当增加国债品种和期限，丰富债券衍生品，完善收益率曲线，健全债券市场定价机制，提高债券评级机构的国际公信力，满足国际安全资产的投资需求。扩大人民币直接交易的外币数量，增加人民币使用的便利性。构建离岸在岸市场的互动机制，降低交易成本，提高人民币资产的国际竞争力。
坚持合作共赢的理念，妥善处理与主要国家的分歧，在政策层面加强合作。应相互沟通，增进互信，避免中美发生贸易战、汇率战。抓住欧洲一体化进程出现新变局的契机，加强与英国与欧盟国家在“一带一路”倡议上的合作，充分发挥欧洲地区国家在技术、要素市场的优势，加快与英国的金融合作，推动伦敦人民币离岸市场的发展。
其他主要货币动态与展望
2017年世界经济总体乐观。美国经济进入上升周期，美联储加息吸引全球资本回流，美元强势回归。欧元区仍未摆脱难民危机阴霾，经济复苏乏力，欧元地位下降。随着脱欧程序正式启动，英国经济不确定性增加，英镑地位有所回落。受日本经济增长和国际避险资本流入影响，日元需求有所增加，国际地位基本稳定。
图2 主要货币国际化指数
美元
2017年一季度，美国经济总体保持稳健，制造业PMI创阶段性新高，就业与通胀数据向目标区间靠近。特朗普上任以来，美国优先、促增长的政策主张逐渐明晰，经济复苏势头得到确认，3月联邦基金目标利率再度提高25个基点，美元指数维持101水平震荡盘整。尽管特朗普政策及其落实效果仍具有不确定性，但美国在发达经济体中依然保持“一枝独秀”，2017年增速有望至2%以上水平，吸引全球资金与需求，美元国际地位进一步夯实。2017年第一季度美元国际化指数测算值为53.66，2017年末预测值为55.84。
欧元
2017年，欧元区有望呈现温和复苏态势，3月综合PMI升至56.4，创六年来新高，经济表现开局良好。然而，欧元区内部结构性问题依然突出，面临较大不确定性与下行风险，英国脱欧、右翼势力上升、难民危机、银行业困局等严重影响欧元区经济前景，加剧金融体系脆弱性。受此影响，欧元依然处于金融危机以来长周期下跌通道，市场信心跌入低谷，欧元国际化地位
受到较大冲击。2017年第一季度欧元国际化指数测算值为21.36，2017年末预测值为20.80。
英镑
英国经济总体良好复苏，通胀与就业表现有效改善，整体形势较为稳定，好于市场预期。2017年一季度末，英国正式启动脱欧程序，尽管作出“硬脱欧”表态，但在对欧盟博弈中仍面临重重压力，苏格兰脱英公投也进一步加剧谈判进程的不确定性。中短期内，英国发展前景不容乐观，英镑仍将维持相对低位波动，市场信心有所动摇。2017年第一季度，英镑国际化指数测算值为4.01，2017年末预测值为3.60。
日元
2017年，日本增长将继续呈现缓慢态势，通缩压力上升，货币政策效应减弱，“安倍经济学”面临拐点，对日元持有使用产生一定的负面效应。但是，在金融市场动荡、全球避险情绪高企的背景下，日元国际需求大幅增加，日元汇率显著走强，日元国际地位基本稳定并出现小幅上升。2017年第一季度，日元国际化指数测算值为4.07，2017年末预测值为4.06。
英文原文如下
In 2016, the internationalization of RMB changed from a phase of big strides into a phase of market adjustment and RII experienced minor shock. The combination of twinge from the structural reform of supply side in China and the downward economic pressure has added to the misgivings in the market; RMB exchange rate has become more flexible under the new exchange rate formation mechanism; and the market still needs some time to adjust and adapt. Frequent occurrence of Black Swan incidents such as US general election and Brexit etc., fermenting refugee crisis in Europe, and coincidence of multiple uncertain factors in the international society have reinforced the role of US dollar in avoiding risks. With adoption of new policies by US President Trump in the first quarter of 2017, the international economic and financial environment becomes clear; in China, the stable economic growth has boosted confidence in the market and the benefits of RMB joining SDR have become noticeable. It is estimated that in the first quarter RII will have smaller decline to 3.04, an increase of 14.1% compared to the same period last year. As dual drive from trade and direct investment intensify in the future, and in particular, as the financial transaction function of RMB improves, RMB can potentially sustain its role as an international currency. It is predicted that by the end of 2017, RII will rise to 3.08.
RII Drive
China continues to be an important driving force for global economic growth. Against the backdrop of complex and changeable domestic and international situation, China managed to realize 6.7% of GDP growth in 2016. IMF has thus upgraded the expected GDP growth rate of China in 2017. In the first quarter of 2017, China’s import and export trade have registered a double-digit growth, the structural reform of supply side has been enhanced, and the new motive power after development has been gathering force, which have laid solid economic foundation for the internationalization of RMB.
Outward Direct Investment has reached a new high and countries along “the Belt and Road” have become popular investment destinations. With infrastructure interconnectivity and international capacity cooperation as priorities, China’s investment in countries along “the Belt and Road” has exceeded 50 billion USD and in 2017, investment abroad will keep the good momentum. The Outward Direct Investment has markedly boosted the bilateral trade ties and has promoted the cross-border business of Chinese-funded financial institutions and thus expanded the RMB business. EPC (Engineering-Procurement-Construction) has become a new impetus behind RMB internationalization.
RMB’s international influence is on the rise. RMB has, for the first time ever, been listed separately in IMF’s Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER). This shows that the institutional benefits of RMB joining SDR are becoming noticeable. More countries have officially recognized RMB assets, RMB’s range of use has expanded from private sectors to public sectors, and like USD and Euro, RMB can now comprehensively display its function as international currency.
With stable market expectation for RMB exchange rate, the short-term capital outflow decreases. With the exchange rate formation mechanism of “closing rate on
the preceding day + currency basket-based adjustment”, RMB has maintained stability towards the basket of currencies in 2017 and enhanced the flexibility of two-way fluctuation towards USD. The expectation of RMB devaluation goes short, short-term capital outflow reduces, and the official foreign exchange reserve remains to be over 3 trillion USD. At the same time, the dwindling exchange rate difference and cost of carry narrowing in the onshore and offshore markets can help wipe off the speculative bubbles and ensure that the cross-border RMB business of financial institutions serve economic entities again.
Further opening of the bond market has raised the international appeal of RMB assets. To provide international safe assets, China has not only lifted investment restrictions over many capital markets, but also opened up foreign exchange, interest rate, and credit derivative markets to the overseas institutional investors for their convenience of hedge management. Internationalization of pricing and clearing mechanisms as well as high yields have attracted the main international institutional investors to purchase bonds issued in RMB. While minor RMB depreciation as well as declining interest rate have led to fast growth in Panda Bonds issuance. Bloomberg and HSBC launched one after another indices with Chinese bonds included. China’s bond market will be a new bright spot in RMB internationalization.
Challenges in the Future
Overseas investment and purchase of foreign currencies are growing unreasonably. Standardizing and strictly enforcing the capital management measures, as well as the expectation of RMB depreciation, have prompted some people into panics in currency exchange. They either try to exchange currency by breaking up the total sum into small portions or exchange through illegal means such as illegal private banks etc.; or overinvest in real estate, buy foreign companies or financial assets without any knowledge of the local laws or market risks. These led to the excessively fast outward investment and the fast outflow of capital, exerting big pressure on the stability of RMB exchange rate.
The global competitiveness of bond market is yet to be improved. The bond market is insufficient in depth and scope, bond products are not diversified enough, and structure of bond issuers is not reasonable. The yield curve, as the pricing benchmark in the market, cannot yet meet the demand of investors; and the derivative market, which can avoid risks of interest rate and exchange rate, is still not developed. Rating agencies with sufficient credibility are still lacking, and legal and taxation system as well as market infrastructure are yet to be improved.
Difficulties in coordinating international policies have increased and trade war risks are lurking. The major developed countries are inconsistent in their pace of economic recovery and different in the elasticity of macro-economic policy mix. USD has entered a period of interest rate hikes, Euro and Yen maintain the negative interest rates, and as Britain started the Brexit process， the rate-hike expectation for Pound has increased. China needs to cope with spillover effects of different monetary policies. Trump Administration has shown conservative tendency and EU has started the anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigation over trade with China, which are all challenges to expansion of RMB use.
Policy Advices
Improve the system and realize the refined and accurate management for capital flow. White List and Black List for overseas investment should be created to ensure flexibility, and real and eligible overseas investment and currency exchange should be supported. Companies should be encouraged to participate in “the Belt and Road” initiative and the international capacity cooperation. With Big Data technology, monitoring over the capital flow and regulation for compliance should be strengthened and flow of speculative capital should be restricted.
Accelerate the infrastructure development of bond market and strive to turn bonds issued in RMB into competitive international safe assets. Bond market diversification should be enhanced, cooperation with overseas bond markets should be strengthened, and the two-way opening up should be furthered. We should promote asset securitization, diversify the types of national bonds and extend the maturity, enrich the types of bond derivatives, perfect the yield curve, improve the pricing mechanism in bond market, raise the international credibility of rating agencies, and thus meet the investment demand in international safe assets. We should increase the number of foreign currencies with direct trading with RMB for greater convenience in RMB usage. The interaction mechanism between onshore and offshore markets should be built to lower the trade costs and boost the international competitiveness of RMB assets.
Uphold the principle of win-win cooperation, properly handle the disagreements with major countries, and strengthen cooperation at policy level. China and US should communicate with each other to enhance mutual trust and avoid trade war or interest rate war. Also, we should seize the opportunities in the new dimension of European integration process, strengthen cooperation with Britain and EU countries in “the Belt and Road” Initiative, fully display the advantages of European countries in technology and factor market, accelerate the financial cooperation with Britain, and promote the development of RMB offshore market in London.
“Other Major Monetary Events and Outlook
World economy in 2017 will on the whole be in a rosy picture. The US economy has been on an upward trend, FED’s rate hikes policy has attracted the backflow of global capital, and US Dollar has staged a strong comeback. The Euro Zone, still under the loom of refugee crisis, will be faced with sluggish economic recovery and a declining Euro. With official start of the Brexit process, uncertainties for British economy will be rising and the Pound’s position in global monetary market will decline. Affected by economic growth in Japan and the inflow of global hedge capital, demand for Yen has increased and Yen’s position in global monetary market has stabilized.
World economy in 2017 will on the whole be in a rosy picture. The US economy has been on an upward trend, FED’s rate hikes policy has attracted the backflow of global capital, and US Dollar has staged a strong comeback. The Euro Zone, still under the loom of refugee crisis, will be faced with sluggish economic recovery and a declining Euro. With official start of the Brexit process, uncertainties for British economy will be rising and the Pound’s position in global monetary market will decline. Affected by economic growth in Japan and the inflow of global hedge capital, demand for Yen has increased and Yen’s position in global monetary market has stabilized.
USD
In the first quarter of 2017, the US economy has maintained stable growth, PMI of manufacturing industry has registered a new high, and employment and inflation statistics have been approaching the target range. Since the Trump Administration came to office, the policies of emphasizing and promoting growth have become clear and the recovery momentum has become prominent. In March, the Federal Funds Target Rate grew by another 25 base points and USD Index fluctuates around 101. Despite the uncertainties in Trump’s policies and the effects, the United States still stands out among the developed economies. US economy is expected to grow at over 2% in 2017, attracting the global capital and demand and also consolidating the global position of USD. The Internationalization Index of USD for the first quarter of 2017 was 53.66 and the estimate for the end of 2017 is 55.84.
EUR
In 2017, the EUR Zone is expected to realize mild recovery. In March, PMI increased to 56.4, a record high in six years. The economic development is off to a good start. However, the EUR Zone is still confronted with striking internal structural issues, uncertainties and downward pressure. Brexit, rise of right-wing forces, refugee crisis, banking industry predicament etc. will severely affect the economic prospect of EUR Zone and add to the fragility of financial industry. Given such situation, EUR is still on the sustained downward path in the wake of the financial crisis, the market confidence has plummeted to the bottom, and the position of EUR in the global monetary system has been greatly affected. The Internationalization Index of EUR for the first quarter of 2017 was 21.36 and the estimate for the end of 2017 is 20.80.
GBP
UK is, on the whole, having a sound economic recovery. Inflation and employment situation have improved, the general situation is stable and better than the market expectation. At the end of the first quarter in 2017, Britain officially started the Brexit process. Despite the tough stance in Brexit, Britain still faces mounting pressure in dealing with EU. The Scottish Independence Referendum has also added to the uncertainties in the negotiation. In the middle and short term, Britain’s development prospect is not upbeat, GBP will still fluctuate at a low rank, and market confidence will shake. The Internationalization Index of GBP for the first quarter of 2017 was 4.01 and the estimate for the end of 2017 is 3.60.
JPY
In 2017, Japan’s growth will remain sluggish. Inflation pressure is increasing, effects of monetary policies are fading out, and Abenomics will face a turning point, which will all have negative impact on Yen holding. However, against the backdrop of turmoil in financial market and upsurge of global risk aversion, the global demand for Yen will have sharp increase, the JPY exchange rate will be markedly stronger, and JPY’s position in the global monetary system will be stable and will even have minor rise. The Internationalization Index of JPY for the first quarter of 2017 was 4.07 and the estimate for the end of 2017 is 4.06.
中国人民大学国际货币研究所
主编：涂永红
审稿：涂永红
王芳
曲强
编委：戴稳胜
赵雪情
姜 楠
陈周阳
李胜男
联系人：董熙君
电话：86-10-62516755
传真：86-10-62516755
网址：http://www.imi.org.cn/
Chief Editor: Tu Yonghong
Copy Editor：Tu Yonghong
Wang Fang
Qu Qiang
Editorial Board Member:
Dai Wensheng
Zhao Xueqing
Jiang Nan
Chen Zhouyang
Li Shengnan
Contact Person:
Dong Xijun
Tel: 86-10-62516755
Fax: 86-10-62516755
Website：http://www.imi.org.cn/
Internal discussion material, and only for reference
图文编辑 张晨希
观点整理 张晨希
点击查看近期热文
欢迎加入群聊
为了增进与粉丝们的互动，IMI财经观察将建立微信交流群，欢迎大家参与。
入群方法：加群主为微信好友（微信号：imi605）,添加时备注个人姓名（实名认证）、单位、职务等信息，经群主审核后，即可被拉进群。
欢迎读者朋友多多留言与我们交流互动，推荐好文章可联系：邮箱imi@ruc.edu.cn；电话010-62516755
关于我们
中国人民大学国际货币研究所（IMI）成立于2009年12月20日，是专注于货币金融理论、政策与战略研究的非营利性学术研究机构和新型专业智库。聘请了来自国内外科研院所、政府部门或金融机构的65位著名专家学者担任顾问委员和学术委员，74位中青年专家担任研究员。
研究所长期聚焦国际金融、宏观经济理论与政策、金融科技、财富管理、金融监管等领域，定期举办高层次系列论坛或讲座，形成了《人民币国际化报告》《金融机构国际化系列报告》《财富管理研究报告》等一大批具有重要学术和政策影响力的产品。成果还被译成英文、日文、韩文、俄文、阿拉伯文等版本在欧、美、亚多个国家发布，引起国内外理论与实务界的广泛关注。
2016年，IMI入围《中国智库大数据报告》影响力榜单列高校智库第4位，并在“中国经济类研究机构市场价值排行榜（2016）”中名列第32位。
国际货币网：www.imi.org.cn
微信号：IMI财经观察
（点击识别下方二维码关注我们）
只分享最有价值的财经视点
We only share the most valuable financial insights.